Surf's last year (2011) predictions

Quote from Pekelo:

Reading comprehension. I did say it is going to be an interesting ride down, and sure it was. :)

I never said it was going down in a straight line. Had you put even money on the predictions, GRPN made up for the heat on NFLX. And NFLX is only at 80? I didn't say it would get to 50 by May, did I? So give it time, probably by the next earnings report.

The market prediction is for the end of the year, so stop crying this early, and anyway, I acknowledged it went higher than I thought it would.

But feel free to make 3 predictions, we can treat this thread as the predictions for 2012. I didn't want to just criticize Surf's predictions, that's why I included mine.


Surf, you are an idiot. The prediction was excellent, nobody said it was very tradable.

Now I looked up your 5 predictions, I think 2 out of the 5 were on the money, the other 3 either wrong or didn't move much...
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The difference is that you post vague predictions, "interesting ride" etc., and I post marketable trades.

"Nobody said it was very tradable" Pekelo, 2012.
 
Quote from atticus:
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and it has yet to trade under $79.

Almost hit $72 today, happy now? Only 22 bucks to go... :)

SPX position and we went 12% higher.

Back to 7%. You can play a butterfly or elephant or whatever you call those straddles around the 3-4% area, and if we close the year around that, you made money. But you know better than I. Also, one could have been just long SPX since the prediction and would be still nicely up.

GRPN call was spot on.

Thanks. Nicely dipped below $10, as expected. It will be below $3 in a few years, I would say, but that is another prediction.

As a last not, listen people, these were predictions, not guide how to play certain stocks. That is your duty to figure out how to play those, if you believe the predictor is a good one.

Anyhow we will check back to this thread in another 3-4 months or so...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

and it has yet to trade under $79.

Almost hit $72 today, happy now? Only 22 bucks to go... :)

SPX position and we went 12% higher.

Back to 7%. You can play a butterfly or elephant or whatever you call those straddles around the 3-4% area, and if we close the year around that, you made money. But you know better than I. Also, one could have been just long SPX since the prediction and would be still nicely up.

GRPN call was spot on.

Thanks. Nicely dipped below $10, as expected. It will be below $3 in a few years, I would say, but that is another prediction.

As a last not, listen people, these were predictions, not guide how to play certain stocks. That is your duty to figure out how to play those, if you believe the predictor is a good one.

Anyhow we will check back to this thread in another 3-4 months or so...
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You can dance around it all you want. NFLX exploded 30% higher within days of your bearish call.

The SPX call was no call at all. You're a bad joke with your "interesting ride" BS. The equivalent of the, "it will rain this Spring in Seattle". Whatever Surfer's faults; he didn't attempt to spin a bad call as you're doing here.

You can always spot the dilettantes on this site as they predict w/o predicting.
 
Quote from atticus:

You can dance around it all you want. NFLX exploded 30% higher within days of your bearish call.

The SPX call was no call at all. You're a bad joke with your "interesting ride" BS. The equivalent of the, "it will rain this Spring in Seattle"....

You can always spot the dilettantes on this site as they predict w/o predicting.
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BINGO!
 
Quote from atticus:


You can always spot the dilettantes on this site as they predict w/o predicting.
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love love LOVE this quote... this applies as well to just about every commentary on the biz shows and newsletters everywhere. " It looks like it wants to go up...BUT be careful right here...it may go down":confused:

or...the classic " I think we will see 1500 in the near future" later the "time" horizon is based on a scale of decades.
 
Would this be the same Surf who previously dismissed TA and the real-time usability of trends? This fellow seems to have embraced both. Please advise.

As an aside, he writes that he averages in 2 or 3 times "as it's impossible to tell exactly when the bounce will occur." With that in mind, would you know why he doesn't at least wait for any predefined evidence of an actual bounce to occur, and why he chooses instead to "predict" such a bounce while price action is still going straight down? Just curious.
 
Quote from Brass:

Would this be the same Surf who previously dismissed TA and the real-time usability of trends? This fellow seems to have embraced both. Please advise.

As an aside, he writes that he averages in 2 or 3 times "as it's impossible to tell exactly when the bounce will occur." With that in mind, would you know why he doesn't at least wait for any predefined evidence of an actual bounce to occur, and why he chooses instead to "predict" such a bounce while price action is still going straight down? Just curious.
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That was dave mouthing the nonsense his buddy vic was telling him.

His new approach is starting to resemble an approach that worked over the past 20 years for father. My father made millions (4-5) trading in his retirement and the approach dave just wrote about is similar to what I wrote my dad did.
 
Quote from Brass:

Would this be the same Surf who previously dismissed TA and the real-time usability of trends? This fellow seems to have embraced both. Please advise.

As an aside, he writes that he averages in 2 or 3 times "as it's impossible to tell exactly when the bounce will occur." With that in mind, would you know why he doesn't at least wait for any predefined evidence of an actual bounce to occur, and why he chooses instead to "predict" such a bounce while price action is still going straight down? Just curious.
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Well, this is interesting. The moderator deleted Rodney King's post leading to Surf's site, including my quoting of that post, which was the reason for my above post. Perhaps, then, the moderator would be kind enough to delete my post as well, since it has no meaning without that reference.
 
That's because Rod should have known better than to post a link promoting Surfer (or anyone else who doesn't pay for that privilege).

Quote from Brass:

Well, this is interesting. The moderator deleted Rodney King's post leading to Surf's site, including my quoting of that post, which was the reason for my above post. Perhaps, then, the moderator would be kind enough to delete my post as well, since it has no meaning without that reference.
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