Surf's last year (2011) predictions

Pekelo

Pekelo

I have been trying to figure out what was the outcome of Vic's prediction contest at Dailyspeculations. So far there hasn't been an update or summary of the winner and positions. I suspect the outcome of the positions were much worse than one would expect, thus the silence. I randomly checked some of the predictions and lo and behold, let's just say they were not very sagacious.

Vic's idea was actually pretty shrewd, ask a bunch of smart people, put even money on their predictions, and sit back and relax. Although by the end of January, the average prediction was down -1.5% and the market was up by the same, so something didn't seem to go according to the plan...

As I was looking through the people making the predictions, I ran into our expert and long time contributor, Surf. Here are his 3 entries:

"dave goodboy on December 31, 2010 10:06 am

2011 Contest Prediction Picks

1. The DJIA will not surpass 12333 or break below 9997
2. Chinese rare earth small caps will continue to climb: XING breaks $5.00 per share
3. The public continues to lose interest in the stock market with the VIX will stagnate between 23.7 and 11.93"

-------------------------

1. The Dow needed just 7 weeks to break through his predicted high, and in 4 months it was 500 pts higher.

2. XING went into a freefall and dropped almost 90% by year's end, closing around 60 cents.

3. The VIX went about 150% up from its mid-January level, easily breaking through his predicted high.

So Surf got a rare triple whammy combo in humility. I hope the rest did slightly better at Dailyspec, still waiting for the results....
 
Since you appear to follow the big guy, you might want to make note of his 2012 predictions over at marketsurfer blog, "I’m A Super Bull For 2012: Our Forecast For The New Year"...
 
I have you on my Ignore Rodney, since I consider you a Surf alias who never got banned. But out of curiosity (who responded), I logged off and read your response. I don't follow the "big guy", as I mentioned in the first post, I simply ran into his prediction while cruising the entries for the contest.

But to make it interesting, I will summarize here Surf's predictions for this year, and we will get back to them in 11.5 months or so:

1. Bullish on the market. No % gain expressed though.
2. Bearish on Euro. It should reach parity with the dollar in 3 years or less, EUR/USD could reach 1.11 in 2012.
3. Swiss franc is projected to devalue at least 11% against the euro.
4. Japanese yen to collapse at least 23% against the U.S. dollar.
5. The bearishness extends to metals. Gold is over, finished, trashed. Gold $1300.00 per oz is in the cards for 2012

That is about it. My post was also about Vic's contest, so if you run into him, would you ask him why there hasn't been a winner declared and no results of the multiple position posted? I thought that was an interesting experience, but I fear the sagacity of the Specs' forecast wasn't validated.

Since I like to be a good game, I will include here a few predictions on my own.

1. Slightly bullish on the market. The dollar strengthening will put a break on a big rally, so let's say we close only 3-4% up.
2. NFLX will go below $50. How we get there will be an interesting ride, but eventually we will, except a takeover, but I can't predict takeovers. Currently just below $95.
3. GRPN will lose half of its value and go below $10. Currently it is just below $19.

Otherwise have a happy new year Rodney/Surf, and stay unbanned! :)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

about Vic's contest, so if you run into him, would you ask him why there hasn't been a winner declared and no results
More...

:confused: He covers that in a Jan 9 post on his blog. I haven't run into him since, so I can't offer any other info.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

Since you appear to follow the big guy, you might want to make note of his 2012 predictions over at marketsurfer blog, "I’m A Super Bull For 2012: Our Forecast For The New Year"...
More...

Funny, how you always seem to take personal insult to anybody that happens "cast aspersions" at Marketsurfer.
 
Quote from denner:

Funny, how you always seem to take personal insult to anybody that happens "cast aspersions" at Marketsurfer.
More...

Funny how someone who "doesn't follow" Surf chose only Surf's predictions to analyze/criticize -- from among the 20 or 30 people's posted on the VN site.
 
Come on Surf, don't feel so special. First, you are known to the ET community, so it just makes sense to analyze your expertise. Second, you weren't the only one, here is a winner, posted in the original thread where Vic was advertising the contest:

Quote from Pekelo:


Jay Pasch predicts: (I deleted some)

Buy-and-holders will be sorely disappointed as 2011 presents itself as a whip-saw year.
99% of the bullish prognosticators will eat crow except for the few lonely that called for a tempered intra-year high of ~ SPX 1300.
SPX 1300 will fail with new 2011 low of 1050 before ending the year right about where it started.
More...

The dude was spot on, he deserves the 4K....

Also, there was another guy with a triple combo loser prediction, but again, I/we don't know him, so why would I pick on an average Joe???

Now getting back to the more interesting question, why haven't the results been published??? Could it be because just after 1 month the experts already underperformed the market by 2%? You know, this is kind of an integrity issue, if they start something, they should finish it, good or bad....
 
Hey Surf, so you wouldn't feel that bad with your result, I quote Vic after 1 month:

"Biggest Gainer at this point is Jared Albert (with his all in single stock bet on REFR) with a 22.87% gain."

REFR topped a week later and tanked for the rest of the year and closed at $3.5, down from the high of $10 (or $5.5 at year's beginning). So the position lost 40%....

The problem with having so many predictions and trying to use them to have a diversified portfolio is that they will have really bad predictions like this, and it will take a really good one just to make it back to breakeven....
 
Hey Surf, long time no see, 4 months after my predictions, let's check how we are doin':

Quote from Pekelo, posted on Jan 11th:

Since I like to be a good game, I will include here a few predictions on my own.

1. Slightly bullish on the market. The dollar strengthening will put a break on a big rally, so let's say we close only 3-4% up.
2. NFLX will go below $50. How we get there will be an interesting ride, but eventually we will, except a takeover, but I can't predict takeovers. Currently just below $95.
3. GRPN will lose half of its value and go below $10. Currently it is just below $19.
More...

Let's go backward:

3. GRPN just bounced from $10.64 today, I say this one has been right on the money and pretty much reached the predicted target. My post was at $19....

2. I did say it was going to be an interesting ride and sure it has been, going up to $130 first. Then reality has set in, and today NFLX dipped below $80. My short prediction was at $95...

1. The market has been even more bullish than I thought. At my prediction the market was up only 2%. We are up 10% now, my 3-4% is for the year's end, we will see how that turns out.

I guess all 3 predictions are nicely in the money at this moment....
 
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