Surf's last year (2011) predictions

Quote from Pekelo:

Sorry guys, I haven't been reading the replies, but today seems to be a good day to check on the prediction portfolio:



Assuming we put even money on all 3 predictions:

1. We are almost back to the predicted 3-4% end of year range, so an option spread (profit maximized when in the 3-4% range) would have a nice 5 months time decay. Let's count it low, a 10% profit. (atticus can give us a better estimate)

2. From 95 down to 67.3 right now, that is about 29% profit. This position did have a big DD though, but only on 1/3 of the whole capital.

3. From 19 went to the predicted 10, position closed, profit was 47%.

So averaging the profits of the 3 position: (10+29+47)/3 = 28.6%

I think 28% profit in 5 months with a max. DD of 10% (it was about 30% on 1/3rd of capital) isn't too shabby as predictions go, considered that this was a non-correlated, diversified portfolio.

Hey Surf, how are your predictions going? I am too lazy to do the math...
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Still trying to impress ET with your paper trading prowess I see.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113413&perpage=30&pagenumber=2
 
Quote from Rodney King:

Since you appear to follow the big guy, you might want to make note of his 2012 predictions over at marketsurfer blog, "I’m A Super Bull For 2012: Our Forecast For The New Year"...
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Fingers crossed on the super bull forecast for 2012--- our macro analysis has not changed for stocks. Pres election year, particullarly this one, is very telling....

surf
 
Pekelo said:
I have you on my Ignore Rodney, since I consider you a Surf alias who never got banned.
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Have you seen the post quoted below? If you have marketsurfer on ignore you will have to log out and refresh this page to read it.

marketsurfer said:
I have raised nearly $100 million for a variety of funds and projects via what i suggest. Im far from wealthy but do ok in this business and am able to do what i want whenever i want. Over 35% of this has come from elite trader contacts
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