Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Spyder:
Based on the pattern movements, is there a way to calculate/estimate more or less the openning price of ESmini/direction the next day?
Does it make make sense to keep the position open at the EOD & reverse it soon when market opens next morning?
From my observation, if the pattern of ES developed maturely the previous day, then it has an inverse effect( opposite direction) at the second day morning as to the price direction goes.
This is an extreme assumption and beyond the scope of JH's.
A gambler's game to play??
Based on the pattern movements, is there a way to calculate/estimate more or less the openning price of ESmini/direction the next day?
Does it make make sense to keep the position open at the EOD & reverse it soon when market opens next morning?
From my observation, if the pattern of ES developed maturely the previous day, then it has an inverse effect( opposite direction) at the second day morning as to the price direction goes.
This is an extreme assumption and beyond the scope of JH's.
A gambler's game to play??
Really? The volume difference today between Mar and Jun is not that far off where you should have noticed a major difference. Both charts have the same profile today. High lows have same range from open of market to recent highs. Both turned at same points and had same extensions. I think if you were not aware of rollover and used MARCH today and tomorrow, you should still have made the same trading decisions.
That's interesting but not consistent with my datafeed. Using IQFeed with Ensign, there was a notable difference in the data as Steve mentioned, particularly in the range. Must have something to do with the feed/chart settings...I don't know. I was using the continuous feed symbol, but for some reason the data did not rollover within Ensign. Once I changed to the June symbol the change was dramatic.
The point is I was aware of the rollover and I failed to check my notes - I won't let that happen again! Shame on me.
John
I'm confident many 'systems' exist which attempt to calculate / estimate / predict with varying degrees of accuracy the next day's opening price based on today's price action. Such systems are beyond the scope of this Journal.
Since one would have been short yesterday headed into the close, holding overnight into this morning's gap up would have created a situation where one would have returned much of yesterday's profits back to the market. No. This does not make sense to me.
One could easily backtest this 'observation' over a sufficient period of time in an effort to determine how accurately your 'observations' match reality. In this fashion, you could then judge what percentage of the time your 'observations' matched reality compared to when it did not. You could then use money management techniques to perhaps create a profitable system based on these back tests. Whoa. See how easy it is to head off the reservation and back into the casino?
Possibly.
Probably, but definitely not a game I wish to play.
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