Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Spydertrader:

O.K.

etc..

The above signals / decision points were based on someone who switches resolution levels between a 'Forest' and 'Tree' level resolution. In other words, a trader who feels comfortable entering both on an FTT and on a Point Three. However, all traders on the 'Forest' Level Resolution should have at least caught the Point Three Entry at 11:50 AM on the ES.

Hope that helped.

- Spydertrader
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I find this explanation of the most important points very helpful. Thank you.

Ivo
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

O.K.



In fact, many probably felt the 13:35 / 13:40 bars were forming an FTT, but based on Volume we could tell this was a flaw. If anyone was fooled here, don't fret it. With time and experience, you won't be - red volume levels were way too low for it to be an FTT, and you'll recognize that in the future (if you didn't already).


- Spydertrader
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That's a little confusing because low red volume is exactly what we would expect after an FTT in an up channel or not? I guess then it shouldn't be too low then...

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

That's a little confusing because low red volume is exactly what we would expect after an FTT in an up channel or not? I guess then it shouldn't be too low then...

regards,
Ivo
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There should be decreasing red volume, i.e., red volume should start out fairly high to pull price back to the RTL, then gradually fade away. If there's too little there won't be a retrace but some kind of flaw.
 
Quote from palinuro:

But I wonder what would have happened if I were trading.
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Does the market know you traded real money vs SIM? Of course it doesn't. Only you do. Altering your decisions based on having real money in the market is a direct cause of focusing on your P & L or entry / exit points. Stay focused on the market and concern yourself with proper execution. When you do, you'll notice nothing changes.

The psychological aspects of having real money on the line only gain importance when the trader places emphasis on it. Scientific studies have shown the brain cannot tell the difference when an olympic athlete 'visualizes' performing at their sport compared to actually participating in the sport. The same synapses fire off. Don't allow fear and greed to enter the equation, and you can avoid most of the self created hurdles other traders face.

- Spydertrader

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

As I often try to do with situations such as these, I prefer to take you back to what I knew (or thought I knew) at the point I made my decision.

We start the day with an FTT on the ES (Point One). Over the first four bars of the day, we see increasing black volume. As such, my brain thinks - uptrend. After all, we expect to see decreasing volume in a retrace. Here, we have increasing black volume as price improves. In addition, I already have an uptrend developing with the YM. When price begins to pull back on the ES (Point two, my brain says), and the YM shows an FTT, I expect to see decreasing red volume as price retraces back toward my anticipated Point Three on the ES. When price breaks the 'uptrend thin green channel' on my previous charts, combined with red volume (with less volume showing on a PRV basis than the 9:45 bar), I feel pretty confident that everything is going to progress exactly as I expect. My sole concern developed as time moved closer to the end of the 9:50 bar. At this point, I see significantly lower volume than I would normally expect to see at an FTT. Now, I entertain the idea that I may actually have a flaw of some sort developing. However, since I do not have anything (YM Price / Volume, ES Volume or ES Price signaling 'change' I reach the conclusion that I have 'continuation' and continue to hold. The 9:55 bar on the ES then confirms my decision to hold by bushing Price even lower (and creating a small volatility expansion). At the 10:00 AM bar, I see Price begin to slow in its downward pace, as well as a reduction in volume. As a result, I begin to think 'change' should be upcoming (after all, we did just have a Volatility Expansion, and I am now on the look out for an FTT). I also notice Price failed to make it to the left trend line (skinny red lines) and I begin to look for a possible trend change. When Price again fails to reach the left trend line on the 10:05 bar, and begins to head higher, I already see an FTT on the YM and PRV volume on the ES tells me to expect increasing black once again. All that remains to complete my data set is to see Price breach the right side trend line of this down channel. When it does, one enters long.

The above description went a little farther than your question, but I wanted to show how the process really doesn't require any sort of hyper activity. In reality, we had more than enough information to reach a conclusion at almost every step. One didn't need to go check the YM, but it certainly was nice to see it confirm everything as we walked through the morning's opening bars.


I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
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EXCELLENT rundown..

I could see the price action and volume bars in my head - didn't even look at a chart to understand what was going on. Maybe I'm just getting better...

PS - You're awake at 2:30 am? :eek:
 
Quote from Pr0crast:

This is an extremely true statement. Being someone that is used to doing fifteen things at once, this has been the hardest thing of all to learn. Things that seem to work: watching a movie on monitor #2, listening to zen-inducing music, brewing lots of chinese tea, lighting candles, and tackling all those addicting online puzzle games. When the account grows a bit, I think it would be +EV to hire a personal masseuse to have on hand for the entirety of the market day :cool:

Great posts today Spyder, very helpful stuff.
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I have a button labeled 'Hold' and click on it ... it is programmed to do nothing... i take the Hold action... feels great...

:D :D
 
Nice rundown Spyder.

Made 5 points on ES channels this morning yaaaaay.

Got whipsawed on YM boooo

Still up net on the two combined plus a British Pound trade I did this morning using the channels.

GOOD POINTS: Been catching my entries very well on breakouts or bounces off of the trendline.

BAD POINTS: Still hard to shake scalping mentality and cutting out of positions too soon. Have to stay in until serious FTT or channel reverses. Closed out long ES at 1406.75, we are now at 1408. Closed Pound at 10 pips, it ran about 30 pips before noticeable FTT appeared.


TRUST THE CHANNEL..... THE CHANNEL IS YOUR FRIEND....THE CHANNEL IS SCREAMING STAY WITH ME UNTIL I GET TIRED...I WILL ALWAYS PULL BACK A BIT AFTER A LARGE JUMP CAUSE I NEED TO REGAIN MY STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT LEG HIGHER BUT I AM NOT TRYING TO PUSH YOU AWAY. IF I AM TOO WORN OUT TO CONTINUE THE MOVE I WILL LET YOU KNOW SO DON'T WORRY.

.. sorry but I hate missing out on another 2.50 points as well as 25 YM points if I was not shaken (but not stirred) out.
 
Spydertrader, with all due respect, THEY know where most of US put money on the line, and almost always retrace to it. I don't think they're watching simulated money.
 
It is very hard to watch price move back significantly against you. On a wide channel, waiting for a RTL to exit can cost you a lot of money so I think the pace of the market has to have a lot to do with this decision if you are not reversing. If price has moved signicantly I will start looking for an ftt to get out on rather than waiting for it to head back to the RTL. This morning is a good example. The RTL is 3 or 4 points away as we speak.
 
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