Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[El OchoCinco]

If your line was one setting thicker or if your hand was off by a fraction of a milimeter in drawing the line it would have touched. Isn't that a little too subjective, especially since the line a few bars back never technically touched the line either?

Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.

Maybe it is just 2 different views

Quote from Spydertrader:

On my chart, the bar just missed the trend line. See attached.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1389369>

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

After that the tape was broken. What made you decide to wait?

I viewed the noon bar as a 'flaw' as it developed. In my mind, at the time (and I make no assertion of 'correctness' here), I felt I was seeing the first half of a 'Dip' forming, rather than, a left to right traverse of a channel. As such, I waited to see what came next (Flaws provide 'hold' signals at the coarse levels). When the 12:05 bar formed, I figured I was back on track to continue the downward run. By time the 12:10 and 12:15 bars formed, I had already experienced decreasing black volume and felt I had left one flaw (the dip) and moved into another - an HVS. Still holding after moving laterally, I begin to look for what will certainly be an upcoming Point Three.

Quote from ivob:

Of course it's still an FTT for the wider channel. Maybe just a detail but your chart suggests an FTT for the two channels but IMO that's not the case.

Fair Enough. Of course (as you mention) we still have the FTT on the Red Down Channel at 12:45 PM. We only need one FTT on one channel, to signal a 'change' on the Tree Level. Thanks again for keeping me on track.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from optioncoach:

Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.

However you wish to view it (FTT or bounce off the Left Trend Line) only matters at the most Coarse Resolution Levels. As we move to Medium and Fine Level Resolutions, both the FTT and LTL bounce produce signals of change. Irrespective of what we 'call' it, we still see a B2B gaussian Shift as Price Breaks the red Down Channel. Besides (whatever it is), at the Forest Level Resolution, doesn't it still form a Point Three of the Olive Colored Channel?

- Spydertrader

 

[Optionpro007]

Quote from optioncoach:

If your line was one setting thicker or if your hand was off by a fraction of a milimeter in drawing the line it would have touched. Isn't that a little too subjective, especially since the line a few bars back never technically touched the line either?

Not knitpicking but that bar came within a hair of the trend line and I cannot see that as a FTT but a bounce off of the line.

Maybe it is just 2 different views

In addition to Spyder's reply, you can only have an FTT after a point 3 is made.

And the bottom line you refer to must be a parallel line from the 1-3 top down TL.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from optionpro007:

My question is, one it is decided to use a steeper channel, do we just forget about the original ?

No. The 'less steep' channel may come into play again as Price retraces across the channel.

Quote from optionpro007:

And last question, Spyder you mentioned yesterday that once an RTL has been breached the channel is kaputz, finished, termine. Do you mean both TLs or just the RTL ?

Once Price breaks out of a Right Trend Line, the entire previous channel has ended.

- Spydertrader

 

[ticktrade]

There are many situations where the drawing of the trendline will make a difference in the official title of the setup. As Spyder said it is a signal of change. My software is not that accurate with trendlines or parallel lines unless I am zoomed in. Using the volume is the key. Either way the bar in question was a reversal on increasing volume in the proximity of a LTL.
Today I saw the YM lead the ES and lag the ES on BO's. There were several situation where the YM looked to be starting a up move but the delta was staying negative. I'm monitoring a 2 min ES at the same time as the YM to hopefully learn how they work together. At this point I don't understand the YM leading idea. So far they both seem to have equal pros and cons. If someone could enlighten me it would be nice. Maybe it's the volume we watch on the YM rather than whether price is breaking a trendline or pivot before the ES.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from ticktrade:

... Maybe it's the volume we watch on the YM rather than whether price is breaking a trendline or pivot before the ES.

yes, I monitor YM vol closely. You see the pattern on YM vol first before you see it on ES.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Yes, I was just looking for the finest resolution of what I was seeing which was a trendline bounce off /#3 point. I agree that by whatever title it is confirmed as a directional change, I just wanted to confirm my current understanding of what is or isn't a FTT.

It was an honest ? with no malintent

Quote from Spydertrader:

However you wish to view it (FTT or bounce off the Left Trend Line) only matters at the most Coarse Resolution Levels. As we move to Medium and Fine Level Resolutions, both the FTT and LTL bounce produce signals of change. Irrespective of what we 'call' it, we still see a B2B gaussian Shift as Price Breaks the red Down Channel. Besides (whatever it is), at the Forest Level Resolution, doesn't it still form a Point Three of the Olive Colored Channel?

- Spydertrader

 

[palinuro]

Quote from nkhoi:

yes, I monitor YM vol closely. You see the pattern on YM vol first before you see it on ES.

Yes, I've also noticed that the YM features 'ideal' gaussians much more consistently than the ES. I checked the ES 2-minute a couple of times to compare, and while the pattern was visible it wasn't as clear.

 

[palinuro]

Quote from Spydertrader:

IBy time the 12:10 and 12:15 bars formed, I had already experienced decreasing black volume and felt I had left one flaw (the dip) and moved into another - an HVS.

- Spydertrader

Since we expect decreasing black volume during the retrace to the RTL, do you mean an even greater decrease?

I found that sequence confusing. I fanned out that down channel bar after bar, then I decided everyone had gone for lunch and it was just going to continue sideways, so I took a break.

I think I need to start working more on identifying flaws....

palinuro