Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

[Spydertrader]

2005-06-22, Wednesday - DCAI Update

I continue to hold all shares of DCAI until at least tomorrow in anticipation of at least one more day of price improvement.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=774622>

 

[chopper77]

Quote from hpeganz:

Spydertrader

In my opinion the %D of the stochastic was about 73 %. Because it was not above 75 I took no action.
Made I a mistake - I use e-signal...
But I did buy ist because frv at 11:18:34 AM and the parameters were in desired territory.

???

Best regards, Helmut

Does it really matter? I think there is some room for discretion in systems like these- what matters most is the concept. If the stoch is 73 or 74.5 or 74.9, but everything else is in place, I don't think that should be a deal-breaker. It's close enough, we have the volume and the price improvement that we like, so just because this # is off by 2 I don't think that's good enough to dump this trade. If you are that nervous, maybe go smaller size, but I don't think that's even necessary.

You have an edge, and you know why. Just because an indicator is an eyelash too low... I think you should still take the trade.

 

[Spydertrader]

2005-06-23, Thursday - Lists

Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort

Hot List

CMT FORD MCRI

Dry Up Stocks

EZPW TASR UBET

Hot List Stocks Scores

CMT - 2
FORD - 5
MCRI - 7

Dry Up Stocks Scores

EZPW - 7
TASR - 0
UBET - 4

Keep an Eye on These Stocks

FORD (Attached)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=774831>

 

[hpeganz]

Quote from chopper77:

Does it really matter? I think there is some room for discretion in systems like these- what matters most is the concept. If the stoch is 73 or 74.5 or 74.9, but everything else is in place, I don't think that should be a deal-breaker. It's close enough, we have the volume and the price improvement that we like, so just because this # is off by 2 I don't think that's good enough to dump this trade. If you are that nervous, maybe go smaller size, but I don't think that's even necessary.

You have an edge, and you know why. Just because an indicator is an eyelash too low... I think you should still take the trade.

What I learned is that you follow a system or you don´t follow a system.
If a system says buy above 75 % then you don´t buy it on 74.9.
To deviate from a system on basis of intuition is the way to drama.

May I remind you and spydertrader that holding shares longer than the system parameters allowed caused losses???

As far as I understood holding DCAI longer and not exiting yesterday after peak volume was reached is again acting against the system!!?

Best regards, Helmut

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from hpeganz:

As far as I understood holding DCAI longer and not exiting yesterday after peak volume was reached is again acting against the system!!?

The cycle we hope to exploit begins with Dry Up Volume, Transitions to FRV, and ends with Peak Volume. This cycle normally unfolds over several days (Jack Hershey uses 6 to 8 days; I use four days). Peak Volume and FRV rarely occur on the same day. When they have occurred on the same day, price usually continues to increase for at least one additional day. Based on the DCAI daily chart (see previous post), I anticipated continued price appreciation even after reaching Peak Volume levels. As a result, I held my shares. Now, to be sure, I do not know price will increase. It very well may decrease. However, unlike the trade in which I allowed Greed to influence my thinking, I made this decision based on a daily chart of DCAI. Since today's open is only a few minutes away, I'll know shortly the results of that decision.

- Spydertrader

 

[jonnyy40]

Hurrah

 

[Spydertrader]

2005-06-23, Thursday - DCAI Update

Even though price continued to head higher after my sale, I sold all shares of DCAI this morning at the $24.40 price point. This overnight trade resulted in a per share profit of $3.02 USD. On 1600 shares, we extracted a gross profit of $4832 USD on a gain of 14%. This trade marks the high dollar profit total since beginning the Journal and ties for third in largest percentage gain. Attached, please find the updated Journal results.

Quote from jonnyy40:

Hurrah

LOL. Thanks for the electronic "atta' boy!" Much appreciated.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

2005-06-23, Thursday - Update

This morning, I monitored one list of stocks (3 total equities): Those equities from our daily Hot List and from our Final Universe List finding themselves "In Dry Up."

Dry Up Stocks

EZPW TASR UBET

Our system generated one possible trade signal from the list of three Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

EZPW

Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

TASR UBET

EZPW did not show price improvement ($10.85) at time of signal generation (11:26 AM). In addition, MACD Histogram showed a negative return (-.0283). Also, The Stochastic Indicator fell well below desired levels returning a level of zero (0.0000).

As a result, I took no action with respect to EZPW.

- Spydertrader

 

[chopper77]

Quote from hpeganz:

What I learned is that you follow a system or you don´t follow a system.
If a system says buy above 75 % then you don´t buy it on 74.9.
To deviate from a system on basis of intuition is the way to drama.

May I remind you and spydertrader that holding shares longer than the system parameters allowed caused losses???

It caused losses the one time he did it, but that doesn't mean what he did was wrong. Similarly, if he made money doing it it doesn't mean he was right.

If the stoch is at 74.9 I think buying is just fine. Indicators are tools to be used. When you trade a system and have an edge you have to understand the reason for the edge. If everything is right and the stoch is .1 off and you don't buy, I think you are retarded. If the stoch is .1 off and everything else lines up, the market conditions exist to push this equity higher and it's a good time to get in. The stoch is .1 to low, but that doesn't negate the edge you'd have by entering the trade. 75 is a nice round number and a relatively arbitrary cutoff. If the stoch was 65 or even 70 i'd stay out, but if price action looks good, everything else lines up and the stoch is at 73 I wouldn't mind jumping in, maybe smaller size.

 

[smtrader]

Quote from chopper77:
If everything is right and the stoch is .1 off and you don't buy, I think you are retarded.

I don't necessarily agree with your statement of mental capacity with regards to bending the rules.

If someone is only comfortable following their rules with the utmost strictness, and has made a point to follow these rules, then they are making the right choices based on their own comfort level and risk tolerance.

On the flip side, there will be some who can bend the rules, and take the trade. I myself use a 5% rule (if the tool is within 5% of my target, I may take this as a "go" sign) and smaller position size, like you mention. However, this is in the testing phase, and if it doesn't test well, then I will flip to the other side (and I will feel quite good about myself, even if you call me retarded).