Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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2005-06-17, Friday - Update

This morning, I monitored one list of stocks (3 total equities): Those equities from our daily Hot List and from our Final Universe List finding themselves "In Dry Up."

Dry Up Stocks

EZPW TASR USG

Our system generated two possible trade signals from the list of three Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

TASR USG

Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

EZPW

TASR did not show price improvement at time of signal generation (10:43 AM). In addition, MACD Histogram showed a negative return (-.0178). Also, The Stochastic Indicator fell outside desired levels (48.5288).

USG also failed to show price improvement at time of signal generation (11:02 AM). The MACD Histogram showed a negative return (-.0529), and The Stochastic Indicator failed to achieve desired levels (18.0311).

As a result, I took no action with respect to TASR or USG.

I'll update the EXM & MCRI trades shortly.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-06-17, Stupid Mistake Update

Failure to follow the rules of any system can often bite you square in the ass. Yesterday, I failed to follow the rules and held both MCRI and EXM beyond EOD, when clearly, neither equity had reached FRV by EOD. The result of my rookie mistake? I turned what would have been a $590 USD profit into a net break even day.

Why would I do such a thing? Greed. I allowed my thought process to be influenced by the possibility of making back a significant portion of the recent losses, and as a result, allowed one winner to turn into a loser. While valid reasons do exist for choosing "when to break the rules" (such as adapting to a rapidly changing market dynamic), Greed is not among these valid reasons.

Now, of course I will learn from this bitter lesson and move forward, but I post here in an effort to help someone else avoid the same stupid mistake I made. One must remain ever diligent to insure the decision making process is void of both Fear and Greed. Without an ongoing commitment to eliminate these two emotions from one's thinking, the door to error swings wide open. I have been reminded of this lesson today. Hopefully, you can learn from my example, rather than by giving your own profits back to the market.

- Spydertrader
 
Thanks for the followup on your trading MCRI and EXM. The eod volume wasn't too far off. Perhaps you may want to sell 1/2 at eod when the confirmation or price action is near the cutoff (either abover OR below). Locks in a partial profit, yet allows the trade to run a bit if it behaves.

Keep up the good work.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

2005-06-17, Stupid Mistake Update

Failure to follow the rules of any system can often bite you square in the ass. Yesterday, I failed to follow the rules and held both MCRI and EXM beyond EOD, when clearly, neither equity had reached FRV by EOD. The result of my rookie mistake? I turned what would have been a $590 USD profit into a net break even day.

Why would I do such a thing? Greed. I allowed my thought process to be influenced by the possibility of making back a significant portion of the recent losses, and as a result, allowed one winner to turn into a loser. While valid reasons do exist for choosing "when to break the rules" (such as adapting to a rapidly changing market dynamic), Greed is not among these valid reasons.

Now, of course I will learn from this bitter lesson and move forward, but I post here in an effort to help someone else avoid the same stupid mistake I made. One must remain ever diligent to insure the decision making process is void of both Fear and Greed. Without an ongoing commitment to eliminate these two emotions from one's thinking, the door to error swings wide open. I have been reminded of this lesson today. Hopefully, you can learn from my example, rather than by giving your own profits back to the market.

- Spydertrader
More...

Hi Spyder,

I'm a bit confused. For FRV calculation, do you use the lower band DU value or the average DU value, as given by the Wealth Lab scripts?

TIA
 
Quote from traderjim22:

For FRV calculation, do you use the lower band DU value or the average DU value, as given by the Wealth Lab scripts?
More...

The Wealth-Lab ChartScripts use Average DU Value to calculate First Rising Volume (FRV) and Peak Volume (PV) levels. I used those same results. We use the 'Low Band' of Dry Up Volume Range as an entry trigger only in an effort to capture an increased portion of the price movement. However, even if one decided to use actual volume (Wednesday) as the Dry Up Volume Value (for Thursday), neither EXM nor MCRI would have exceeded FRV levels by EOD.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-06-20, Monday - Lists

Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort

Hot List

CMT FORD MCRI

Dry Up Stocks

DCAI EZPW HANS JUPM MFLX TASR USG

Hot List Stocks Scores

CMT - 2
FORD - 0
MCRI - 0

Dry Up Stocks Scores

DCAI - 4
EZPW - 5
HANS - 0
JUPM - 0
MFLX - 0
TASR - 2
USG - 2

Keep an Eye on These Stocks

DCAI (Attached)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=771649>
 

Attachments

2005-06-20, Final Universe - Update

GDP IMAX SIGM SNDA XXIA

The above list of five stocks have failed to maintain rank. I plan to remove these equities at the end of the month if they continue to fail to achieve a rank. USG, previously on this list, has recently reacquired its rank, and as a result, I have no plans for the removal of USG at this time.

Good Trading Today.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-06-20, Monday - Update

This morning, I monitored one list of stocks (7 total equities): Those equities from our daily Hot List and from our Final Universe List finding themselves "In Dry Up."

Dry Up Stocks

DCAI EZPW HANS JUPM MFLX TASR USG

Our system generated three possible trade signals from the list of seven Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

HANS TASR USG

Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

DCAI EZPW JUPM MFLX

HANS did not show price improvement at time of signal generation (10:35 AM). In addition, MACD Histogram showed a negative return (-.3271). Also, The Stochastic fell outside desired levels (19.8616).

USG did not show price improvement at time of signal generation (11:22 AM). In addition, MACD Histogram showed a negative return (-.3486). Also, The Stochastic fell outside desired levels (19.6513).

TASR also failed to show price improvement at time of signal generation (11:26 AM). The MACD Histogram showed a negative return (-.0048), and The Stochastic Indicator failed to achieve desired levels (21.8117).

As a result, I took no action with respect to HANS, TASR or USG.

- Spydertrader
 
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