At 108.56 USDJPY is no longer showing much of an inclination to follow through on continuing north.
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South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West
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Having established a final protocol for position entry and exit points, I am now turning my attention to what I’m calling the universal structure of exchange rates. The idea is to begin entering positions such that I can “hang out” for days to rack up dozens if not hundreds of pips’ worth of profit, exiting my positions anytime I like for massive (from my perspective) chunks of change.
It would be terrific to have this all worked out, if indeed it turns out to be practical, by the time I begin trading in earnest at the end of September, God willing.
That said, AUDJPY has been falling since the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018, but is in the lower region of the universal price range, even as it pushes up against the day range’s upper resistance. I’m therefore inclined to simply watch for now to see it the day-to-day trend continues its reversal north or resumes its southern trek.
On the other hand, AUDUSD (which has been falling ever since February of 2018) will encounter additional resistance with every bit of ground it covers between its current location at 0.6994 and something like 0.7130. Consequently, whenever it decides to head south again, I’m inclined to try to hang with that leg of the journey as long as it lasts for perhaps a hundred pips of profit or even more.
Though its overall route is somewhat erratic, CADJPY is evidencing a similar structure as AUDUSD. So, if it begins falling from anywhere between where it is now (82.25) up to 83.79, I’d be inclined to try to ride it down to at least 81.35.
EURJPY is in a similar situation except that it has been falling more-or-less steadily since the end of January 2018.
EURAUD has be climbing ever since March of 2017. If it will come down to 1.6195 or lower, I will consider entering a long position with 1.6335 as my target.
EURGBP will be pushing up against major statistical resistance all the way up to 0.9138, so when if finally turns south, my inclination will be to try to stick with it until it is clearly headed south no longer.
Headed south since the end of April 2018, EURUSD is already struggling against resistance, which will become super pronounced up between 1.1472 to 1.1585. So if it doesn’t turn north again right away, I will sell it somewhere in this neighborhood (1.1360) and try to ride it down to 1.1288 or 1.1157.
GBPJPY has gone almost nowhere since the beginning of 2017, and is currently in the thick of universal support. Therefore, I’m likely to buy the pair as soon as I see an upward reversal in the week-to-week trendline, hopefully to ride the pair perhaps as high as 146.36, or at least to around 139.42.
NZDJPY is at the top of the day range, but the week-to-week trend line is hooking north, so I will be curios to see if it breaks through weekly resistance between 72.38 to 73.14, or even climbs as high as universal resistance between 75.67 to 77.11. Either way, once it turns south again I imagine it will continue on that trajectory for at least a few days. (It’s been headed south since July 2017.)
USDCHF is bouncing off a zone of dense support, so I want to buy it (@ 0.9804) and remain with it until the day-to-day trend is no longer bullish. (USDJPY is in just about the same situation.)
(I wish I would have done all this about three hours ago.)
It would be terrific to have this all worked out, if indeed it turns out to be practical, by the time I begin trading in earnest at the end of September, God willing.
That said, AUDJPY has been falling since the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018, but is in the lower region of the universal price range, even as it pushes up against the day range’s upper resistance. I’m therefore inclined to simply watch for now to see it the day-to-day trend continues its reversal north or resumes its southern trek.
On the other hand, AUDUSD (which has been falling ever since February of 2018) will encounter additional resistance with every bit of ground it covers between its current location at 0.6994 and something like 0.7130. Consequently, whenever it decides to head south again, I’m inclined to try to hang with that leg of the journey as long as it lasts for perhaps a hundred pips of profit or even more.
Though its overall route is somewhat erratic, CADJPY is evidencing a similar structure as AUDUSD. So, if it begins falling from anywhere between where it is now (82.25) up to 83.79, I’d be inclined to try to ride it down to at least 81.35.
EURJPY is in a similar situation except that it has been falling more-or-less steadily since the end of January 2018.
EURAUD has be climbing ever since March of 2017. If it will come down to 1.6195 or lower, I will consider entering a long position with 1.6335 as my target.
EURGBP will be pushing up against major statistical resistance all the way up to 0.9138, so when if finally turns south, my inclination will be to try to stick with it until it is clearly headed south no longer.
Headed south since the end of April 2018, EURUSD is already struggling against resistance, which will become super pronounced up between 1.1472 to 1.1585. So if it doesn’t turn north again right away, I will sell it somewhere in this neighborhood (1.1360) and try to ride it down to 1.1288 or 1.1157.
GBPJPY has gone almost nowhere since the beginning of 2017, and is currently in the thick of universal support. Therefore, I’m likely to buy the pair as soon as I see an upward reversal in the week-to-week trendline, hopefully to ride the pair perhaps as high as 146.36, or at least to around 139.42.
NZDJPY is at the top of the day range, but the week-to-week trend line is hooking north, so I will be curios to see if it breaks through weekly resistance between 72.38 to 73.14, or even climbs as high as universal resistance between 75.67 to 77.11. Either way, once it turns south again I imagine it will continue on that trajectory for at least a few days. (It’s been headed south since July 2017.)
USDCHF is bouncing off a zone of dense support, so I want to buy it (@ 0.9804) and remain with it until the day-to-day trend is no longer bullish. (USDJPY is in just about the same situation.)
(I wish I would have done all this about three hours ago.)
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For the last nine days however, the pair has been range bound between 135.34 and 137.33.
Praise be to God, this foray into the concept of universal structure pretty much puts a nail in the coffin of my exploring Forex trading systems. Seeing as how GBPJPY is range bound, I expected it to regress toward the mean, and it did. Given that GBPUSD is structurally bearish, I expected it to wander south, and it did. What the exchange rates are doing and why is quite clear with this last addition to Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), or perhaps it is not so much an addition as it is an extension.
And even if some trades do not ultimately pay off (I’m still waiting for EURUSD and USDCHF to make progress in my favor) my contention given what I view as the system’s reliability and validity is that I will be able to demonstrate how its failure to realize anticipated gains, whenever this occurs, can be attributed to changes in market conditions rather than a shortcoming of the system.
This last addition/extension probably also means that, unlike in the past, gains of $3, $5, $10 or more (as opposed to returns of 70¢ or less) are likely to become the rule rather than the exception. This is okay as long as I am trading 0.02 lot sizes, but it will be awesome once I graduate to 1.00 or more.
EURUSD has gone nowhere for nearly two-and-a-half days now. The daily trend is no longer bearish, but neither is it bullish. However, the weekly trend has turned bullish now. At this point statistical resistance does not even begin until 1.1449 so whether the pair goes up or down at this point is a 50-50 proposition.
I calculate weekly resistance for NZDUSD at 0.6707 to 0.6776, so I plan to sell the pair as soon as the day-to-day trend turns south.
USDCAD has be riding daily and weekly support southward for the past six days. At 1.2977 down to 1.2716 it hits universal support as well, so I plan to buy this pair as soon as the day-to-day trend turns north.
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I had to abandon my USDCAD position due to the fact that the day-to-day trend is no longer bullish.
NOT USDCAD, rather...USDCHF!
GBPJPY is decidedly bearish. However, ever since the middle of May the pair has been deeply mired in my "universal support" zone, leaving the asset with plenty of room above should it ever decide to reverse its sentiment.
And though the weekly trend is still bearish, I’m seeing signs from a daily context that the pair might be trying to alter its bias. I would therefore like to enter a long position, but at 136.98, GBPJPY is located in the upper half of its day range, suggesting that I should wait for a pullback before buying.
Such a pullback seems to have begun forming in the last two hours, so if it follows through, my plan is to enter a long position as soon as the “global” hourly trend hooks north once again, probably the beginning of next week at the earliest.
NOTE: I cannot trust the hourly trend to follow through when it begins to show signs of a reversal, so I have added (actually, it's more like I have reintroduced) what I'm calling the "global" hourly trend line which will have to confirm reversals in the hourly trend to approve my taking action during such a signal.
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AUDJPY has been falling since the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018, but is in the lower region of the universal price range, even as it pushes up against the day range’s upper resistance. I’m therefore inclined to simply watch for now to see if the day-to-day trend continues its reversal north or resumes its southern trek.
UPDATE: AUDJPY has continued north, but I do not expect this to last much beyond 0.6773 (though I of course realize the market can do whatever it pleases). In the meantime, I'm just waiting for the day-to-day trend to turn south so I can hopefully sell the pair for perhaps a couple of hundred pips profit.
On the other hand, AUDUSD (which has been falling ever since February of 2018) will encounter additional resistance with every bit of ground it covers between its current location at 0.6994 and something like 0.7130. Consequently, whenever it decides to head south again, I’m inclined to try to hang with that leg of the journey as long as it lasts for perhaps a hundred pips of profit or even more.
UPDATE: I see a "doubling" of "statistical" resistance for AUDUSD should it climb as high as 0.7062. I'm still looking forward to selling this pair.
Though its overall route is somewhat erratic, CADJPY is evidencing a similar structure as AUDUSD. So, if it begins falling from anywhere between where it is now (82.25) up to 83.79, I’d be inclined to try to ride it down to at least 81.35. (Nothing has changed here.)
EURAUD has be climbing ever since March of 2017. If it will come down to 1.6195 or lower, I will consider entering a long position with 1.6335 as my target.
UPDATE: I'm just waiting for the day-to-day trend to turn north so I can go ahead and enter a long position.)
EURJPY has been falling more-or-less steadily since the end of January 2018. (One could justify selling the pair at any point, once the day-to-day trend turns south.)
EURGBP will be pushing up against major statistical resistance all the way up to 0.9138, so when if finally turns south, my inclination will be to try to stick with it until it is clearly headed south no longer. (Nothing has changed here.)
Headed south since the end of April 2018, EURUSD is already struggling against resistance, which will become super pronounced up between 1.1472 to 1.1585. So if it doesn’t turn north again right away, I will sell it somewhere in this neighborhood (1.1360) and try to ride it down to 1.1288 or 1.1157.
UPDATE: EURUSD has been "dead in the water" for three days now.
GBPJPY has gone almost nowhere since the beginning of 2017, and is currently in the thick of universal support. Therefore, I’m likely to buy the pair as soon as I see an upward reversal in the week-to-week trendline, hopefully to ride the pair perhaps as high as 146.36, or at least to around 139.42. (I'm likely to be a little bit more aggressive about when to go ahead and buy.)
NZDJPY is at the top of the day range, but the week-to-week trend line is hooking north, so I will be curious to see if it breaks through weekly resistance between 72.38 to 73.14, or even climbs as high as universal resistance between 75.67 to 77.11. Either way, once it turns south again (it’s been headed south since July 2017) I imagine it will continue on that trajectory for at least a few days. (Nothing has changed here. I'm also waiting to sell NZDUSD.)
USDCHF is bouncing off a zone of dense support, so I want to buy it (@ 0.9804) and remain with it until the day-to-day trend is no longer bullish. (There was no follow through on the up tick.)
UPDATE: AUDJPY has continued north, but I do not expect this to last much beyond 0.6773 (though I of course realize the market can do whatever it pleases). In the meantime, I'm just waiting for the day-to-day trend to turn south so I can hopefully sell the pair for perhaps a couple of hundred pips profit.
On the other hand, AUDUSD (which has been falling ever since February of 2018) will encounter additional resistance with every bit of ground it covers between its current location at 0.6994 and something like 0.7130. Consequently, whenever it decides to head south again, I’m inclined to try to hang with that leg of the journey as long as it lasts for perhaps a hundred pips of profit or even more.
UPDATE: I see a "doubling" of "statistical" resistance for AUDUSD should it climb as high as 0.7062. I'm still looking forward to selling this pair.
Though its overall route is somewhat erratic, CADJPY is evidencing a similar structure as AUDUSD. So, if it begins falling from anywhere between where it is now (82.25) up to 83.79, I’d be inclined to try to ride it down to at least 81.35. (Nothing has changed here.)
EURAUD has be climbing ever since March of 2017. If it will come down to 1.6195 or lower, I will consider entering a long position with 1.6335 as my target.
UPDATE: I'm just waiting for the day-to-day trend to turn north so I can go ahead and enter a long position.)
EURJPY has been falling more-or-less steadily since the end of January 2018. (One could justify selling the pair at any point, once the day-to-day trend turns south.)
EURGBP will be pushing up against major statistical resistance all the way up to 0.9138, so when if finally turns south, my inclination will be to try to stick with it until it is clearly headed south no longer. (Nothing has changed here.)
Headed south since the end of April 2018, EURUSD is already struggling against resistance, which will become super pronounced up between 1.1472 to 1.1585. So if it doesn’t turn north again right away, I will sell it somewhere in this neighborhood (1.1360) and try to ride it down to 1.1288 or 1.1157.
UPDATE: EURUSD has been "dead in the water" for three days now.
GBPJPY has gone almost nowhere since the beginning of 2017, and is currently in the thick of universal support. Therefore, I’m likely to buy the pair as soon as I see an upward reversal in the week-to-week trendline, hopefully to ride the pair perhaps as high as 146.36, or at least to around 139.42. (I'm likely to be a little bit more aggressive about when to go ahead and buy.)
NZDJPY is at the top of the day range, but the week-to-week trend line is hooking north, so I will be curious to see if it breaks through weekly resistance between 72.38 to 73.14, or even climbs as high as universal resistance between 75.67 to 77.11. Either way, once it turns south again (it’s been headed south since July 2017) I imagine it will continue on that trajectory for at least a few days. (Nothing has changed here. I'm also waiting to sell NZDUSD.)
USDCHF is bouncing off a zone of dense support, so I want to buy it (@ 0.9804) and remain with it until the day-to-day trend is no longer bullish. (There was no follow through on the up tick.)