All indications thus far are that CADJPY will continue to climb and USDCAD will keep on falling.
South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West
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Signs that CADJPY might continue to climb and USDCAD might keep falling have now disappeared. CADJPY now looks committed to turning south and USDCAD looks determined to, sooner or later, head north, so I will continue to watch for the right time to execute the corresponding trades.
On the other hand, I have elected to abandon my USDJPY short position, which no longer looks bullish.
NZDJPY started me off on the wrong foot in a major way, but other trades put me back on track. The Numerical Price Prediction system I use avoids such major losses when monitored closely (which I cannot do at the moment) because trades can then be managed and the forecast models make it immediately obvious when conditions have changed so that positions can be exited long before stop losses are ever hit.
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Anecdotal Observations:
It’s your belief that, over the last two weeks, you have settled, once and for all, which indicators you regard as filling what roles, and how they ought to be used, based on the factors responsible for the appearance of the chart below.
The two dashed moving averages you refer to as global trend lines convey what you deem to be the day-to-day trend. However, they are not altogether trustworthy in that they sometimes suggest a reversal in the day-to-day trend that never pans out or follows through.
You therefore added a super bold moving average which you are calling the universal trend line that, though somewhat lagging, is much more reliable in terms of recognizing bona fide reversals in the day-to-day trend. This line is the supreme arbiter and has the final say when forecasting where rates are ultimately headed.
The job of representing the general overall intraday direction of price is filled by the green moving averages.
However, more immediate reversals in the intraday trend are conveyed by the red moving averages, which use the maximum time period you consider “actionable” in terms of deciding when to buy or sell a given foreign currency pair.
The blue moving averages are just slightly faster than the red ones, and so sound the alarm as an early warning system signaling when the immediate intraday trend just might be setting a new destination.
“Letting your profits run” is accomplished by remaining in trades until and unless candlesticks begin to form on the opposing side of the blue (and red) moving averages. These moving averages are assigned the greatest amount of significance and given the most weight when implementing a pseudo-swing style of trading.
However, if and when positions can be monitored and managed on an ongoing basis, the fluctuating moving averages plotted on the lower time-frame charts should be depended on to avoid virtually any drawdown, remove a genuine necessity of relying on stop losses, and enter/exit positions with almost unprecedented precision so as to maximize profits.
Even so, the blue and red moving averages remain preeminent among all the indicators that might be found on the chart.
It’s your belief that, over the last two weeks, you have settled, once and for all, which indicators you regard as filling what roles, and how they ought to be used, based on the factors responsible for the appearance of the chart below.
The two dashed moving averages you refer to as global trend lines convey what you deem to be the day-to-day trend. However, they are not altogether trustworthy in that they sometimes suggest a reversal in the day-to-day trend that never pans out or follows through.
You therefore added a super bold moving average which you are calling the universal trend line that, though somewhat lagging, is much more reliable in terms of recognizing bona fide reversals in the day-to-day trend. This line is the supreme arbiter and has the final say when forecasting where rates are ultimately headed.
The job of representing the general overall intraday direction of price is filled by the green moving averages.
However, more immediate reversals in the intraday trend are conveyed by the red moving averages, which use the maximum time period you consider “actionable” in terms of deciding when to buy or sell a given foreign currency pair.
The blue moving averages are just slightly faster than the red ones, and so sound the alarm as an early warning system signaling when the immediate intraday trend just might be setting a new destination.
“Letting your profits run” is accomplished by remaining in trades until and unless candlesticks begin to form on the opposing side of the blue (and red) moving averages. These moving averages are assigned the greatest amount of significance and given the most weight when implementing a pseudo-swing style of trading.
However, if and when positions can be monitored and managed on an ongoing basis, the fluctuating moving averages plotted on the lower time-frame charts should be depended on to avoid virtually any drawdown, remove a genuine necessity of relying on stop losses, and enter/exit positions with almost unprecedented precision so as to maximize profits.
Even so, the blue and red moving averages remain preeminent among all the indicators that might be found on the chart.
The green universal trend line and white global trend line are both angling north. Moreover, the global trend line is above the universal trend line, all of which suggests a bullish market. Since this hour's candlestick is forming above the triple-clustered short-term moving averages, there is ample reason to conclude that EURGBP is a buy at 0.8614.
However, 0.8614 just so happens to also be the crest of the fluctuating trend line on the one-minute chart, so if a trader wished to maximize profit and the probability of meeting with success, it would be better to wait until price reaches the wave's trough and enter a long position as price exits the wave's nadir.
ALSO ON THE HORIZON...
Waiting to short GBPUSD following a downturn in its triple-clustered short-term moving averages, and possibly GBPJPY as well.
However, 0.8614 just so happens to also be the crest of the fluctuating trend line on the one-minute chart, so if a trader wished to maximize profit and the probability of meeting with success, it would be better to wait until price reaches the wave's trough and enter a long position as price exits the wave's nadir.
ALSO ON THE HORIZON...
Waiting to short GBPUSD following a downturn in its triple-clustered short-term moving averages, and possibly GBPJPY as well.
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The Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) Forex Trading System is relatively set, and I have dispensed with any type of additional major analysis or modifications. However, I do still find myself fine tuning the system by making minute adjustments.
In addition to universal, global, intraday, and short-term trend lines, the previous configuration included a threefold cluster of bundled moving averages that was assigned prominence over all other indicators, and an hourly moving average.
However, I have just replaced the hourly moving average with a more precise trend line that takes over the role of dictating position entries and exits from the triple clustered moving averages...
As observed in the above image, this indicator (the bold black moving average) confirmed very clearly when EURGBP switched from being bullish to bearish, making this "triple-cluster confirmation line" my new, and hopefully permanent, favorite chart graphic.
At 77.98 AUDJPY looks bearish to me. A reasonable take-profit target given my approach to trading would be 77.83
At 0.7019 AUDUSD is overall bearish, but the intraday trend is currently bullish, so to make sure the pair is not reversing north I would need to see the intraday trend turn south once again before entering a short position, at which point, my take-profit target given the present state of affairs would be 0.6985.
CADJPY is sort of kind of bearish, but not really, since it has gone nowhere in the last six or seven days. At 82.75, if I were to sell the pair I would be shooting for a modest take-profit target of 82.62.
EURAUD looks like it is reversing from a bullish to bearish sentiment. I will be watching it to see if it follows through.
EURGBP is definitely bearish, but given its current structure, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull back at any time in the near future.
At 124.42 EURJPY is bearish. Were I to sell the pair, I would set my take-profit target at 124.18.
Like AUDUSD, EURUSD is overall bearish, but the intraday trend is currently bullish, so to make sure the pair is not reversing north I would need to see the intraday trend turn south once again before entering a short position.
GBPJPY is definitely bullish, but given its current structure, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull back at any time in the near future.
GBPUSD is definitely bullish, but given its current structure, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull back at any time in the near future.
At 73.78 NZDJPY is bearish. If short, I would probably take profit somewhere around 73.64.
NZDUSD is overall bearish, but the overall intraday trend is currently bullish, though the short-term intraday trend is pulling back. So to make sure the pair is not reversing north I would need to see the overall intraday trend turn south once again before entering a short position.
USDCAD is overall bullish, but the overall intraday trend is currently bearish, so for the time being I’m just going to observe until all of the trendlines are aligned, one way or the other.
USDCHF has neared a region of major resistance. Structurally, I would like to see it pull back somewhat before entering another short position.
USDJPY is definitely bearish, but structurally, I would like to see it pull back a bit before entering another short position.
At 0.7019 AUDUSD is overall bearish, but the intraday trend is currently bullish, so to make sure the pair is not reversing north I would need to see the intraday trend turn south once again before entering a short position, at which point, my take-profit target given the present state of affairs would be 0.6985.
CADJPY is sort of kind of bearish, but not really, since it has gone nowhere in the last six or seven days. At 82.75, if I were to sell the pair I would be shooting for a modest take-profit target of 82.62.
EURAUD looks like it is reversing from a bullish to bearish sentiment. I will be watching it to see if it follows through.
EURGBP is definitely bearish, but given its current structure, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull back at any time in the near future.
At 124.42 EURJPY is bearish. Were I to sell the pair, I would set my take-profit target at 124.18.
Like AUDUSD, EURUSD is overall bearish, but the intraday trend is currently bullish, so to make sure the pair is not reversing north I would need to see the intraday trend turn south once again before entering a short position.
GBPJPY is definitely bullish, but given its current structure, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull back at any time in the near future.
GBPUSD is definitely bullish, but given its current structure, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull back at any time in the near future.
At 73.78 NZDJPY is bearish. If short, I would probably take profit somewhere around 73.64.
NZDUSD is overall bearish, but the overall intraday trend is currently bullish, though the short-term intraday trend is pulling back. So to make sure the pair is not reversing north I would need to see the overall intraday trend turn south once again before entering a short position.
USDCAD is overall bullish, but the overall intraday trend is currently bearish, so for the time being I’m just going to observe until all of the trendlines are aligned, one way or the other.
USDCHF has neared a region of major resistance. Structurally, I would like to see it pull back somewhat before entering another short position.
USDJPY is definitely bearish, but structurally, I would like to see it pull back a bit before entering another short position.
The intraday trend is presently bearish, but at 1.0161, I wouldn't be surprised to see USDCHF spend at least a little bit of time heading north.
At 1.3470 USDCAD looks likely (to me) to head south for a spell.