The trip north appears to have ended at 1.0195, about a 34-pip gain.
South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West
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AUDJPY has taken a break from its downward trajectory, but the week-to-week trend is still bearish. So, will this respite last a few hours, a few days, or will it ultimately evolve into a full-fledged reversal in the weekly trend as well? The jury is still out in my eyes, but based on structure, I would not be at all surprised to see this pair embark on a protracted trip to the north in the not-too-distant future.
The same is true of CADJPY, except that in this case, the bounce to the north is much more decisive.
AUDJUSD has also taken a break from its downward trajectory, but to convince me to commit to going long, the pair will have to maintain price above the 0.7000 handle. (EURJPY will merely need to remain above 123.36.)
EURUSD broke out of consolidation to head north on Thursday (I believe) whereas USDCHF broke out of consolidation to head south. (USDCAD did so on Friday, but this usually doesn’t last very long.)
GBPJPY’s downward leg has stalled as well. The same is true of GBPUSD, except that in the last 5 hours of trading, the pair opted to take a significant dive.
NZDJPY looks rather committed to sticking with its reversal north, and given the fact (in my opinion) that this is supported by its structure, I will be looking to buy the pair next week.
If NZDUSD climbs back above 0.6602 and stays there, I will count this as evidence that its break from a downward trajectory is pronounce enough that it might even constitute the beginning of a reversal in the weekly trend.
The same is true of CADJPY, except that in this case, the bounce to the north is much more decisive.
AUDJUSD has also taken a break from its downward trajectory, but to convince me to commit to going long, the pair will have to maintain price above the 0.7000 handle. (EURJPY will merely need to remain above 123.36.)
EURUSD broke out of consolidation to head north on Thursday (I believe) whereas USDCHF broke out of consolidation to head south. (USDCAD did so on Friday, but this usually doesn’t last very long.)
GBPJPY’s downward leg has stalled as well. The same is true of GBPUSD, except that in the last 5 hours of trading, the pair opted to take a significant dive.
NZDJPY looks rather committed to sticking with its reversal north, and given the fact (in my opinion) that this is supported by its structure, I will be looking to buy the pair next week.
If NZDUSD climbs back above 0.6602 and stays there, I will count this as evidence that its break from a downward trajectory is pronounce enough that it might even constitute the beginning of a reversal in the weekly trend.
To follow through on this plan I'm going to need price to climb back above 72.38 without this little trip south pulling my "authorization" signal down into bearish territory.
UPDATE:
Much has changed in the opening hours. However, CADJPY and EURJPY remain strong BUY candidates—but I need to wait to see if EURUSD wants to rise or fall from 1.1229. If it rises, it too will be a definite BUY.
I will also be standing by to see whether the Cable pairs (GBPUSD and GPBJPY) care to climb from their current levels. If so, I would expect them to continue doing so for a spell. The same is more or less true of USDJPY, except that I would first need to see it rise above 109.88.
Much has changed in the opening hours. However, CADJPY and EURJPY remain strong BUY candidates—but I need to wait to see if EURUSD wants to rise or fall from 1.1229. If it rises, it too will be a definite BUY.
I will also be standing by to see whether the Cable pairs (GBPUSD and GPBJPY) care to climb from their current levels. If so, I would expect them to continue doing so for a spell. The same is more or less true of USDJPY, except that I would first need to see it rise above 109.88.
I'm not seeing follow through on potential reversals. It's looking to me like that markets simply went into consolidation and are now getting ready to resume their previous trajectories, structure notwithstanding.
Anecdotal Notes from Daily Charts:
AUDJPY has essentially gone nowhere since May 15, 2019.
EURGBP is experiencing an unusually long run north.
GBPJPY is experiencing an unusually long run south.
GBPUSD turned north three days ago.
NZDJPY turned north three days ago.
If EURUSD is going to continue zigzagging its way south, 1.1230 ought to be a reasonably good level from which to fall.
Don’t be surprised if you find the NZDUSD runs into significant statistical resistance up at 0.6672
Structurally speaking, 1.3415 is a pretty decent level from which to rise (speaking of USDCAD).
USDCHF bounced off of statistical support yesterday, which is now at 0.9847 (though “monster” support is currently at 0.9746.
USDJPY is poised to continue climbing north perhaps two or three more days, if not more.
AUDJPY has essentially gone nowhere since May 15, 2019.
EURGBP is experiencing an unusually long run north.
GBPJPY is experiencing an unusually long run south.
GBPUSD turned north three days ago.
NZDJPY turned north three days ago.
If EURUSD is going to continue zigzagging its way south, 1.1230 ought to be a reasonably good level from which to fall.
Don’t be surprised if you find the NZDUSD runs into significant statistical resistance up at 0.6672
Structurally speaking, 1.3415 is a pretty decent level from which to rise (speaking of USDCAD).
USDCHF bounced off of statistical support yesterday, which is now at 0.9847 (though “monster” support is currently at 0.9746.
USDJPY is poised to continue climbing north perhaps two or three more days, if not more.
Started almost two years ago, I believe this process to now be more-or-less complete. So for the time being I'm going to try to just hang back a bit and wait to see how long it takes for what I believe I've learned to prove itself in the form of account growth.
I began trading via IQ Option around May 26th and, as of the end of last week, probably settled on the near ideal one-minute and five-minute chart configurations (for me) for trading five-minute and 15-minute binary options. I therefore spent this morning projecting the setup upward to 15-minute and 60-minute charts. Once I got those results, I dropped back down to five-minutes and morphed the two configurations into one arrangement that incorporated both.
I now want to see if this merger of the two paints an accurate picture to tell the story of what's happening in the markets correctly or not, so I'm going to record the resulting forecasts below so I can check back at the end of Monday or Tuesday to see where things stand.
AUDJPY is bearish. The TP target is 74.42 and the SL is at 74.65
AUDUSD appears to be experiencing a pullback in a southbound trajectory. If this holds, I would not expect the rate to climb higher than 0.6879 and my next target would be 0.6858.
EURAUD appears to be experiencing a pullback in a nortbound trajectory. If this holds, I would not expect the rate to crawl much lower than around where it is right now at 1.6303, and my next target would be near 1.6348.
EURGBP looks relatively neutral to me, ranging between 0.8870 to 0.8920. Presently, it’s about smack dab in the middle.
EURJPY is bearish. My TP target is 121.49 and the SL is at 121.87
EURUSD is bearish, but appears to have hit a zone of support at 1.1205. My next target is only 6 pips away—not a desirable trade. My stop loss is at 1.1233 (about 30 pips above).
GBPJPY is bearish as well, but also too close to my next target to make entering a short position of interest to me.
Ditto for GBPUSD.
NZDJPY is in the same situation as GBPJPY.
NZDUSD is bearish, but appears to have hit a zone of support at 0.6491, which also puts it right at my target, so there is no trade for me here.
USDCAD is just 7 pips below my next target, so there is not much of an opportunity for me here.
USDCHF ran into resistance at 0.9989. My next target is at 1.0000 and my stop loss is at 0.9970
USDJPY is not trending. If it continues to be range bound, a reasonable take-profit target would be around 108.33 with a stop loss of 108.65.
I now want to see if this merger of the two paints an accurate picture to tell the story of what's happening in the markets correctly or not, so I'm going to record the resulting forecasts below so I can check back at the end of Monday or Tuesday to see where things stand.
AUDJPY is bearish. The TP target is 74.42 and the SL is at 74.65
AUDUSD appears to be experiencing a pullback in a southbound trajectory. If this holds, I would not expect the rate to climb higher than 0.6879 and my next target would be 0.6858.
EURAUD appears to be experiencing a pullback in a nortbound trajectory. If this holds, I would not expect the rate to crawl much lower than around where it is right now at 1.6303, and my next target would be near 1.6348.
EURGBP looks relatively neutral to me, ranging between 0.8870 to 0.8920. Presently, it’s about smack dab in the middle.
EURJPY is bearish. My TP target is 121.49 and the SL is at 121.87
EURUSD is bearish, but appears to have hit a zone of support at 1.1205. My next target is only 6 pips away—not a desirable trade. My stop loss is at 1.1233 (about 30 pips above).
GBPJPY is bearish as well, but also too close to my next target to make entering a short position of interest to me.
Ditto for GBPUSD.
NZDJPY is in the same situation as GBPJPY.
NZDUSD is bearish, but appears to have hit a zone of support at 0.6491, which also puts it right at my target, so there is no trade for me here.
USDCAD is just 7 pips below my next target, so there is not much of an opportunity for me here.
USDCHF ran into resistance at 0.9989. My next target is at 1.0000 and my stop loss is at 0.9970
USDJPY is not trending. If it continues to be range bound, a reasonable take-profit target would be around 108.33 with a stop loss of 108.65.
USDJPY only made it as far south as 108.46, then climbed as high as 108.70 before retreating to 108.59. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it resume its ascent, even if in a bit of a haphazard manner.
It did not take long at all for me to conclude that I should stick with the chart configuration I settled on at the end of last week and not give any additional consideration to making trade decisions based on the setup derived from its projection upward. There's no longer any need to check back at the end of Monday or Tuesday to see where things stand.