San Diego Real Estate recovery in 2024

I've lived in San Diego for over 20 years now. I remember the bust of ~1990, right after the collapse of the Soviet Union. All of the defense contractors out here folded and everyone moved out. There were articles in the newspaper about Ryder truck rentals, how they were offering discounts to anyone who would move TO San Diego because they had no more trucks out here to rent. My apartment building always had one or two vacancies, and the landlord did not give a rent increase to any tenant until 1998.

This bust does not seem anywhere near as bad as that one was, not even close. I have been keeping an eye on a new condo building that went up in 2005 in zip 92103. It's located at 475 Redwood. I've seen it slowly fill up ever since it was completed, and now when I go by there at night nearly every unit is lit up, whereas last year it was mostly dark. Also, the sellers of units there are not dropping their prices. One of the units there has been for sale for about 9 months now for just over $1M, and the seller is not dropping.

There is only one short sale in that building right now that I'm aware of, and I've only seen two foreclosures.
 
I'm not a bull but the bears make some questionable assumptions.

1. Real estate (particularly in SoCal) had tremendous gains in an era (I'm talking 1960's and 70's) when "normal" lending standards were way stricter than anything we see today. Rates were out of sight as well. In other words don't assume that just because cheap money caused the run up this decade that sans cheap money the market can't rally again.

2. It's impossible to predict inflation. RT makes a valid point about wages but the fact is wage growth in the U.S. is accelerating. In the 1970's we saw periods of high unemployment and wages still increased. That's how you get inflation guys.

3. Using benchmarks from downturns in the 80's and 90's might not be appropriate because wages and commodity prices were NOT increasing.

What I'm saying is YES there's an 80% chance home prices continue to decline. However IMO there's a full 20% chance that this is the super inflation Real McCoy. Argentina type shit. Let me ask you this. Back when prices imploded in 89-93 did you see $1000 gold?
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I'm not a bull but the bears make some questionable assumptions.

1. Real estate (particularly in SoCal) had tremendous gains in an era (I'm talking 1960's and 70's) when "normal" lending standards were way stricter than anything we see today. Rates were out of sight as well. In other words don't assume that just because cheap money caused the run up this decade that sans cheap money the market can't rally again.

2. It's impossible to predict inflation. RT makes a valid point about wages but the fact is wage growth in the U.S. is accelerating. In the 1970's we saw periods of high unemployment and wages still increased. That's how you get inflation guys.

3. Using benchmarks from downturns in the 80's and 90's might not be appropriate because wages and commodity prices were NOT increasing.

What I'm saying is YES there's an 80% chance home prices continue to decline. However IMO there's a full 20% chance that this is the super inflation Real McCoy. Argentina type shit. Let me ask you this. Back when prices imploded in 89-93 did you see $1000 gold?
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This is the first I've heard of across the board wage inflation....

RT
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
2. It's impossible to predict inflation. RT makes a valid point about wages but the fact is wage growth in the U.S. is accelerating. In the 1970's we saw periods of high unemployment and wages still increased. That's how you get inflation guys.
More...

But all real estate is local and in san diego, adjusted for inflation wages have barely moved compared to everything else:

2005 0.6%
2006 0.2%
2007 2.7% <----- finally a real increase, barely

Now compare that 2.7% to the cost of living in san diego, and affordability has drastically fallen off of a cliff.

Population is moving away from san diego.
Wages are nearly flat
Record inventory near all time highs
2 years of ARM re-sets to go
7+% interest rates on jumbo loans

It's hard to imagine a scenario where prices could increase in the next year.

We need foreigners swooping in a buying up property like crazy to end this crash.
 
Adjusted for inflation! Will you get off the drugs, lol. We're not concerned about adjusted wages. They're always lower during inflation surges. We're measuring actual wages as in moolah.




Quote from traderdragon2:

But all real estate is local and in san diego, adjusted for inflation wages have barely moved compared to everything else:

2005 0.6%
2006 0.2%
2007 2.7% <----- finally a real increase, barely

Now compare that 2.7% to the cost of living in san diego, and affordability has drastically fallen off of a cliff.

Population is moving away from san diego.
Wages are nearly flat
Record inventory near all time highs
2 years of ARM re-sets to go
7+% interest rates on jumbo loans

It's hard to imagine a scenario where prices could increase in the next year.

We need foreigners swooping in a buying up property like crazy to end this crash.
More...
 
Quote from hughb:

I've lived in San Diego for over 20 years now. I remember the bust of ~1990, right after the collapse of the Soviet Union. All of the defense contractors out here folded and everyone moved out. There were articles in the newspaper about Ryder truck rentals, how they were offering discounts to anyone who would move TO San Diego because they had no more trucks out here to rent. My apartment building always had one or two vacancies, and the landlord did not give a rent increase to any tenant until 1998.

This bust does not seem anywhere near as bad as that one was, not even close. I have been keeping an eye on a new condo building that went up in 2005 in zip 92103. It's located at 475 Redwood. I've seen it slowly fill up ever since it was completed, and now when I go by there at night nearly every unit is lit up, whereas last year it was mostly dark. Also, the sellers of units there are not dropping their prices. One of the units there has been for sale for about 9 months now for just over $1M, and the seller is not dropping.

There is only one short sale in that building right now that I'm aware of, and I've only seen two foreclosures.
More...

Mick Pattinson, president of Carlsbad-based builder Barratt American Inc., which constructs homes and condominiums in Southern California, said the company cut almost half of its 140-person staff.

``This is easily the worst housing recession I've experienced, and I've been through four of them,'' Pattinson said.
 
Recovery for who?

Who the fuck cares about a "Recovery"?

If you do not hold Home Builders and the like, who cares.

The fact is, the SHEEOPLE bought into the bullshit on the Mortgages, turned into PIGS by taking out way to much "Leverage" and now the are being slaughterd. SIMPLE FUCKING FACT.

The people who did not chase the Home Market are fine. The people who have not bought a home, or have cash just waiting for this situation, are in a good position.

The reason we even got to this "Level" of leverage is because of the "BUSH" move to do away with Lending Rules that were in place for decades. WHY? To help the "POOR" people own a piece of the "american" dream.

Fucking FREE LOADING BASTERDS. PERIOD. Do some research on the "SOB" stories about those loosing their homes. WHO FUCKING CARES.

The investors who lost, who is saving them? They absorbed the risk. No bail out for those guys/girls.

This whole fucking country is full of bleeding heart PUSSY's who think that they are owed, something, at one level or another.

FUCK THEM. In the end, they will fall harder than ever before while those who are smart and have wealth will continue to move forward, with out a bumb in the Road.

I'm sick of the socialst attitude in this fucking country. FUCKING LITTLE CRYING BITCH's need to be shot.




:cool: :cool:
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

Recovery for who?

Who the fuck cares about a "Recovery"?

If you do not hold Home Builders and the like, who cares.

The fact is, the SHEEOPLE bought into the bullshit on the Mortgages, turned into PIGS by taking out way to much "Leverage" and now the are being slaughterd. SIMPLE FUCKING FACT.

The people who did not chase the Home Market are fine. The people who have not bought a home, or have cash just waiting for this situation, are in a good position.

The reason we even got to this "Level" of leverage is because of the "BUSH" move to do away with Lending Rules that were in place for decades. WHY? To help the "POOR" people own a piece of the "american" dream.

Fucking FREE LOADING BASTERDS. PERIOD. Do some research on the "SOB" stories about those loosing their homes. WHO FUCKING CARES.

The investors who lost, who is saving them? They absorbed the risk. No bail out for those guys/girls.

This whole fucking country is full of bleeding heart PUSSY's who think that they are owed, something, at one level or another.

FUCK THEM. In the end, they will fall harder than ever before while those who are smart and have wealth will continue to move forward, with out a bumb in the Road.

I'm sick of the socialst attitude in this fucking country. FUCKING LITTLE CRYING BITCH's need to be shot.




:cool: :cool:
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EMRGLOBAL, you got it so wrong. They got you brainwashed just like the rest of this stupid, ignorant society. The only socialism that is occuring is "Central Bank Socialism". Why doesn't the CB's plans to provide almost $100 billion in taxpayer money to save their banking brethren from the consequences of their own greed and stupidity burn your bottom? I don't pay taxes anymore but I am sure you still contribute into the hidden agenda.

"Meanwhile Wall Street was churning out millions and billions in ORIGINATION dollars. No new loans - no profit. The candy-ass investors were just as stupid and greedy as the people selling their souls to them. As long as new loans were being made, packaged and traded everybody was happy. Remember, this all started as a capitulation to the whining left and media that the underserved were being ... well, underserved. Some where along the lines someone forgot that was because the underserved were undeserving. You must watch your spelling for those two are similar!

So now the care-free were being care-less on both sides of the investment pile. One side was getting a few dollars or a new home. The other side was swimming in massive profits but what they forgot was the media is never your friend. The media giveth and the media taketh away. The media had allowed this monster to grow unchecked. Now it had a veracious appetite and the incredible turned into the unrealistic and the piper started demanding some pay.

Nevermind that the candy-asses had made billions of dollars now their 30% annual increases were becoming 15% annual increases and the media told them - "you are doomed". They believed it after about 12 months of having foreclosures stuffed in their face and failed to enjoy the massive profits they were still makeing.

So they left.

Wall Street must have seemed vacant that day in 2007 when the market stopped buying MBS's. The big problem? The originators had told all those borrowers, "Don't worry, we'll watch the market when the rates drop we'll refinance you for free. We're good everyone else is scum." Then suddenly, like a thief in the night, all hope was gone. It got stuck in the bank account after the last transaction when the cry baby little pink pants investors took their millions and billions and went home. There would be no more refinances. The books were rolled back to 1999."
 
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