Anyone think we think hit bottom within 2 years?
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San Diego Real Estate recovery in 2024
- Thread starter traderdragon2
- Start date
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL no kidding
Checked on a friends house today. He bought it for 800K, comparable homes are selling for 450K now :eek: I think he nailed the peak actually.
2024 theoretically wouldn't be out of the complete equation, although it's likelihood is low.
Cycles in many markets can take an easy 8-10 years to work through, if not even much longer...put that around a 2012-2015 deal for SD's case right now. 2024 would say it took nearly 20 years to finally stabilize :eek:
Few markets I saw during the "boom" didn't exactly jump on the bandwagon...appreciation was actually pretty low.
So it always comes down to each market acting and working differently.
Cycles in many markets can take an easy 8-10 years to work through, if not even much longer...put that around a 2012-2015 deal for SD's case right now. 2024 would say it took nearly 20 years to finally stabilize :eek:
Few markets I saw during the "boom" didn't exactly jump on the bandwagon...appreciation was actually pretty low.
So it always comes down to each market acting and working differently.
I think SD will take longer than the last down turn to come back to previous highs. Why? Very simple, this was a larger bubble. Also, until last quarter, there was actually a net migration out of SD due to the expense vs opportunity here. The jobs here don't pay like they do in Silicon Valley, or even LA, but its still spendy as hell to live here. If it wasn't for the high Latino birth rate, the population of SD county would actually be decreasing. This has been a brief phenomenon that has coincided perfectly with prices.
Just too damn expensive, even though the weather is perfect, beautiful landscapes and people, and no bugs! The latter is my favorite thing about living here.
Just too damn expensive, even though the weather is perfect, beautiful landscapes and people, and no bugs! The latter is my favorite thing about living here.
The 2024 line I drew would only happen if this bubble deflated at the same rate as the previous bubble. But the fact is, its not deflating, its popping. Its already deflated at about 3X the rate of the previous bubble.
A house I was looking at the other day was $650K near the peak. A house just like it but in better condition sold for $350 last week. Next year Im betting they will be under 300K easily and possible 250.
AP just broke the news, largest home price decline in over 20 years, since they started collecting the stats. Its going to get worse before it gets better.
A house I was looking at the other day was $650K near the peak. A house just like it but in better condition sold for $350 last week. Next year Im betting they will be under 300K easily and possible 250.
AP just broke the news, largest home price decline in over 20 years, since they started collecting the stats. Its going to get worse before it gets better.
Quote from Jayford:
I think SD will take longer than the last down turn to come back to previous highs. Why? Very simple, this was a larger bubble. Also, until last quarter, there was actually a net migration out of SD due to the expense vs opportunity here. The jobs here don't pay like they do in Silicon Valley, or even LA, but its still spendy as hell to live here. If it wasn't for the high Latino birth rate, the population of SD county would actually be decreasing. This has been a brief phenomenon that has coincided perfectly with prices.
Just too damn expensive, even though the weather is perfect, beautiful landscapes and people, and no bugs! The latter is my favorite thing about living here.
There's no doubt that SD res. RE will stabilize at some point. But I find any claim that we will reach or surpass the previous bubble highs to be questionable at best. The loose underwriting standards won't come back (at least not in our lifetime), which is a fundamental prerequisite to reach those highs.
We are seeing levels of asset deflation in this county never seen before, and the downward trend is strong. A lot of would-be sellers in the stronger areas, such as carmel mountain, scripps ranch, or La Jolla think they are untouchable, but the numbers speak otherwise.
Really interesting times.
RT
Dont worry. Its always better to rent than buy. Tell that the people who bought in 2006 in san diego and are 200K to 300K under water now. :eek:
Lives are being destroyed and the immoral scum bag realtor cheerleaders keep telling all my friends to buy buy buy.
Real estate is possibly the worst investment right now and for the next few years. At least until bank owned property returns to normal levels in about 2 years.
Lives are being destroyed and the immoral scum bag realtor cheerleaders keep telling all my friends to buy buy buy.
Real estate is possibly the worst investment right now and for the next few years. At least until bank owned property returns to normal levels in about 2 years.