San Diego Real Estate recovery in 2024

No docs, no assets, fugettaboutit.

How many more wake up calls does this country need? When it's not in their backyard all is hunkey dory. You wonder why the rest of the world hates us.
 

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You see EMRGLOBAL,

It's called "WELFARE" if you and I do it. But if it's in the BILLIONS for a CORPORATION, it's called "BAILOUT"!

But many in society overlook it or ignore it either because they are too busy watching American Idol or don't care because it's not happening in their backyard.

BRAINWASHED!
 
Quote from hughb:


This bust does not seem anywhere near as bad as that one was, not even close. I have been keeping an eye on a new condo building that went up in 2005 in zip 92103. It's located at 475 Redwood. I've seen it slowly fill up ever since it was completed, and now when I go by there at night nearly every unit is lit up, whereas last year it was mostly dark. Also, the sellers of units there are not dropping their prices. One of the units there has been for sale for about 9 months now for just over $1M, and the seller is not dropping.

There is only one short sale in that building right now that I'm aware of, and I've only seen two foreclosures.
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If the unit is still for sale that tells me that there are no buyers for the price the guy asked, right?

Or in trading terms. If you want to observe an illiquid market you need more than just a single ask price. You would need a bunch of bid and ask prices and/or some trade prices to get a picture of what the market is doing.
 
In the attached Excel file you find the historical values of the Case Shiller Index, which also includes data for SD.

The S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly and published with a two month lag. New index levels are released at 9am Eastern Standard Time on the last Tuesday of every month.
 

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Quote from traderdragon2:

Mick Pattinson, president of Carlsbad-based builder Barratt American Inc., which constructs homes and condominiums in Southern California, said the company cut almost half of its 140-person staff.

``This is easily the worst housing recession I've experienced, and I've been through four of them,'' Pattinson said.
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Carlsbad home prices are increasing. Enicitas home prices are booming:

Sacramento Business Journal - March 24, 2008
http://sacramento.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2008/03/24/daily11.html





Monday, March 24, 2008 - 3:29 PM PDT
Home prices down in Sacramento, sales increaseSacramento Business Journal
The median price for homes that sold in Greater Sacramento in February was $258,680, a 30 percent decrease from a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors. The price barely moved from January.

Home sales in the region bucked a statewide trend and increased 17.7 percent from January to February, and were up 10.7 percent compared to February 2007.

Statewide, the unsold inventory index for single-family homes in February was 14.3 months, up from 8.2 months for the same period a year ago, according to figures released Monday.

The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 68.6 days in February 2008, compared with 66.1 for the year-ago period.

Home sales decreased 28.5 percent compared with February 2007, while the median price of an existing home fell 26.2 percent, C.A.R. reported.

In Los Angeles County, the median price was $467,200, down 0.5 percent from January, and down 20 percent from February 2007. The number of sales dropped 10.5 percent from January, and 41.8 percent from February 2007.

Statewide, the median price of an existing, single-family detached home during February was $409,240, a 26.2 percent decrease from the revised $554,280 median for February 2007.

The 10 areas in California with the highest median home prices during February were Santa Barbara, $1.15 million; Redwood City, $875,000; Danville, $875,000; Encinitas, $842,500; Santa Monica, $787,000; Mountain View, $784,000; San Clemente, $770,000; San Mateo, $750,000; Sunnyvale, $741,750; San Francisco, $737,750; Carlsbad, $675,000.

Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in February compared with the same period a year ago were Encinitas, 25.7 percent; Santa Barbara, 23.4 percent; Walnut Creek, 21.5 percent; Redwood City, 14 percent; Carlsbad, 10.9 percent; Sunnyvale, 5.3 percent; Mountain View, 3.4 percent; Rancho Mirage, 2.6 percent; Santa Monica, 1.5 percent; Los Angeles, 1.5 percent; Santa Clarita, 0.9 percent.

Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal



All contents of this site © American City Business Journals Inc. All rights reserved.
 
Quote from wave:

You see EMRGLOBAL,

It's called "WELFARE" if you and I do it. But if it's in the BILLIONS for a CORPORATION, it's called "BAILOUT"!

But many in society overlook it or ignore it either because they are too busy watching American Idol or don't care because it's not happening in their backyard.

BRAINWASHED!
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There is a difference between a one time helping hand and a lifetime of free money.

I am all for the former, everyone needs a helping hand once in a while, the latter should only be extended to the neediest of the needy, those who can't take care of themselves.
 
Quote from hughb:

Carlsbad home prices are increasing. Enicitas home prices are booming:
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No they are not. This is statistical cherry picking by moronic cheerleaders

carlsbad.gif
 
Quote from traderdragon2:

No they are not. This is statistical cherry picking by moronic cheerleaders

carlsbad.gif
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Could be moronic cheerleaders, or it could be moronic fear mongerers. All I know for sure is either you are lying, or they are lying. Doesn't really make a difference to me.
 
Prices are not appreciating in any community here. There are some places with only a few sales per month, so stats can get tweaked, but overall, its weak to flat everywhere. Flat only in the really high end, ocean view mega homes. Everything else getting crushed.
 
Quote from traderdragon2:

Check out this chart. If we accept the assumption that we will once again hit the bottom of the affordability graph due to crash momentum in the other direction, I pose the question, when will the bottom truly be in?

Take a look at the red lines for 2008, 2009, 2010

If that situation occurs, it will be the fastest reversion of all time.

Now look at the light blue line back around 1991. Since real estate is not liquid, and "sticky", real estate crashes tend to deflate very slowly over time.

If you approximate this rate of bubble deflation, it would put us out around 2024 or later :eek: Observer the larger light blue line with a similar recovery slope.

I think we fall faster this time, but care to guess where we hit bottom?

I just dont see it in 2008, or 2009, probably not even 2010.

Sorry for the graph typos... too lazy to fix :)
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BRILLIANT BUT YOU FORGOT TO INCLUDE INFLATION. THIS WILL SPEED UP THE RECOVERY PROCESS ON WHICH YOU HAVE TODAY'S DOLLAR VALUE HOLD CONSTANT. IF YOU TAKE INFLATION IN CONSIDERATION IT COULD BE A DECADE EARLIER.

LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.
 
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