S&P 500 looking very toppy

Status
Not open for further replies.
Okay, here is support for the theory that ES has topped and is heading lower now. I trade divergence. An example of the signal I trade is marked on the chart. It was a good short signal. If you look closely at the current stochastic you will see a slight shoulder. This takes the place of a lower high if it is defined well. This one is marginal, but it is there. This would signal the move down now and a strong one with the DT. A well defined shoulder or elbow is very powerful in my stochastic.

Be interesting to see how it play out. Good topic for me anyway.
 

Attachments

Heck no don't stop Vision'! Your posts are the stuff this website is all about. Very nice charts. Although I love the divergence as well so maybe I'm biased. :)

Anyway, I look forward to your ongoing commentary as events unfold.
 
Question: I heard one of the big issues was the price of the yen since it could pull major dollars out of the U.S. mkts? Does anyone know if that is that still a concern?
 
There are still many unresolved issues that are negative for the U.S. Dollar. This includes large current account and budget deficits, weak business and consumer sentiment, deteriorating labor market and lack of a clear stimulus for the economy.

Personally, I don't think overseas investors are enamoured with the USD anymore. Just look at interest rate differentials and this will give you a good idea of where the money will flow. Then you throw in the good feelings that Germany and France have about the US and all of the sudden the EURO or Swiss franc looks like a good bet.

I'm not not really qualfied to answer your question about the YEN. The way their economy has been lately, I would stay clear of any long term investments in Japan. Better ask George Soros. I bet he's short the dollar.
 
Quote from Magna:

Be careful Romeo, you're lying once again. From your Jim Radid journal on 6/15/03:Your previous handle(s) have been banned from ET because you regularly get your panties in a twist and go into one of your hissy fits, most recently regarding a misunderstanding between inandlong and myself (that we amicably resolved). At that time you saw the need to start up a half-dozen separate threads fuming and bellowing for all to see. So don't attempt to rewrite history and claim your S&P calls in your journal were messed with, because anyone who has been around ET more than a few weeks knows they weren't.
More...

Magna said very recently:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?postid=293679#post293679

You said here you were "bowing out". You don't bow out gracefully, do you?
 
Quote from VisionTrader:

My opinion is that we will see a bear run like none in your lifetime. Just look at the big picture and I think it would be hard to argue to find good. I come from the land of FOREX and I can testify the the good old USD has some major issues. She may look okay for now, but I think tough times are ahead. Her cousin the trade deficit won't help either.

I believe in trading in the present, but with an eye on a big run down at some point. I think when not if is the magic question.

If you look at a monthly chart, you may draw some different conclusions. I think there is still room left to move up. A double bottom formed in March and it does not look like a normal pullback. There was a strong divergence signal in the MACD and an elbow in the stochastic. Even if it is a pullback, it is still moving up strong. Many times the strongest moves come at the top of the Stochastic turn.

As for the double top, I see it and I am trading it today, but William O'Neil may argue a different formation.

Just my $12.50.
More...

Interesting stuff. What does William O'Neil think? He's the IBD owner riight? I used to listen to him and Ryan. But not in the last decade. He doesn't think it's a double top? Great! That doesn't sway me in the least.
 
that this website is called elitetrader, and people here fancy themselves as traders, yet no one can come forward with a damn opinion of a major technical formation on the S&P index.

Does anyone know anything here about trading?
 
As traders we trade what we see, right ?
Not what we think, right ?

Here's what I see: if not short from the double top already on SPY then perhaps on a break of the trend line. See chart.

However, weekly looks good. See next chart.
 

Attachments

Quote from tradersaavy:

As traders we trade what we see, right ?
Not what we think, right ?

Here's what I see: if not short from the double top already on SPY then perhaps on a break of the trend line. See chart.

However, weekly looks good. See next chart.
More...

it breaks. Hard for it not to look good with the 25% rally we've had. I'm watching that trendline as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top