S&P 500 looking very toppy

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Here is a weekly chart of the SP. I guess it could go either way from this point of view, but I feel a down break is more likely. I am a sucker for fundamentals I guess, and all that nonsense in Iraq will take its toll. Either way, we should see a lot of volatility pretty quick, which will make daytrading fun.
 

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Hey Romeo,

Yes I am. Although I don't think it will happen quickly. I used to. But there is still just too much hope and optimism. Maybe abandonment of hope will not be a part of the beginning of the next bull. Who is to say? I am still in the 5000 Dow camp for now.

Nice thread Rome'.
 
Quote from inandlong:

Hey Romeo,

Yes I am. Although I don't think it will happen quickly. I used to. But there is still just too much hope and optimism. Maybe abandonment of hope will not be a part of the beginning of the next bull. Who is to say? I am still in the 5000 Dow camp for now.

Nice thread Rome'.
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Dow 5000? Do you think we'll ever see the day? I don't. That's too low.

If it ever happens, I pledge to remember you said it, and give you full credit.
 
Would be nice to have a spot for daily technical predictions for the ES. You are just the proprietor for this. We could have daily Support / Resistance listed, charts set ups thru diff time frames, and you could keep track of our guesses. I will check to see if you have it ready when I get my first cup of coffee.

:D :cool: :p :eek:
 
LOL, Vision' that is a great idea, except for Romeo. For him it is a lot of work.

One caveat comes to mind re: the ES setups. It might prove very difficult to post setups in a time frame that have a tolerable risk for the traders here, and are valid long enough to be read.

Of course if you are volunteering... :)

Romeo, yeah I know it's low. My trendline work shows 6200-6800, but I am throwing in an extra 1000 for fun and excitement.
 
My analysis just barely puts me in the bullish camp. I think it's going up over the next week or two. But I could change my mind tomorrow. :p
 
without retesting the high (in other words no triple top). However, I think it will be very symetrical and will take a few months to reach lows endding with a break in Oct. and a resumption of the larger bear trend.

One thing that concerns me:on a decline like today what gives with the relative strength in the china com stocks? I would have thought they would be the leaders in the decline (especially after the bit in Barons over the weekend).
 
I know that quite a few people pay attention to the seasonal tendencies for volatility and price trends, and its always a pretty interesting phenomenon. Similar to 1998 and 1999, the SP 500 (thus far) has topped out near the middle of July...July 14th this year, July 16th, 1999 and July 17th, 1998. 15 out of the last 23 July's have closed lower. If you study the dates of many intermediate term highs and lows, you will notice that they occur either at quarter end/beginning or into the quarterly earnings time periods(january, april, july, october)...
 
Interesting view on the SP500 monthly chart when you put up fib lines from the end of 1994 to the top, and from the top to the present low.
 
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