S&P 500 looking very toppy

Romeo · Jul 8, 2003

My quantitative analysis tells me that we are in the process of forming a major top in the S&P 500.

The formation looks to be either a head and shoulders formation, or a double top pattern. Either way, the indices are beginning to point lower.

Any comments are welcome!

Romeo

saschabr · Jul 8, 2003

The market does what least people expect:
Maybe we will see some downside today and not much action
in the coming days...

ElCubano · Jul 8, 2003

Quote from saschabr:

The market does what least people expect:
Maybe we will see some downside today and not much action
in the coming days...

You would think that the Market would do what the mass expects....

Romeo · Jul 8, 2003

Quote from ElCubano:

You would think that the Market would do what the mass expects....

Why would you think that? History has proven that the market goes the opposite of consensus opinion.

ElCubano · Jul 8, 2003

Quote from Romeo:

Why would you think that? History has proven that the market goes the opposite of consensus opinion.

So how was the internet bubble formed??? consensus was bearish you are suggesting???..... The market does what it does it goes thru the path of least resistance which side do you think the mass is on or the money???

saschabr · Jul 8, 2003

well, amazing what heavy resistance around 1005 is

Romeo · Jul 8, 2003

Quote from ElCubano:

So how was the internet bubble formed??? consensus was bearish you are suggesting???..... The market does what it does it goes thru the path of least resistance which side do you think the mass is on or the money???

The internet bubble was an event. I'm referring to consensus and the stock market as a WHOLE over a long period. And it doesn't follow the consensus very well based on historical pricing models.

ktm · Jul 8, 2003

Most people are still bullish here, regardless of the poll. How many of you were buying today?

The poor amateur investor type is afraid of missing the boat.

Check out the sentiment readings...still very bullish and the higher it goes, the more bullish. It's a beautiful thing, quite frankly.

Kap · Jul 8, 2003

so your shorting all the way up..... not sure how much more you can take... when the market looks at its most bullish you then decide to cut your losses... then it will dump, just like last time... thought you might of learnt by now... well I havn't ...ouch :eek:

Romeo · Jul 8, 2003

Quote from Kap:

so your shorting all the way up..... not sure how much more you can take... when the market looks at its most bullish you then decide to cut your losses... then it will dump, just like last time... thought you might of learnt by now... well I havn't ...ouch :eek:

I do believe the shorts are in enough pain already. The market does appear at its most bullish right now. Hence, a top. It's priced as if nothing could go wrong...with earnings.

Earnings will send the market lower!