RealEstate - THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND

Quote from traderdragon2:

"And if first-time buyers are putting less than 10 percent down with a "stated income" loan, they need to have savings equal to six months worth of mortgage payments."


Considering 85% of san diegans used 100% financed, interest only arm loans to get into the homes in the first place, imagine what these new stricter guidelines are going to do to the "pool of buyers"

Decent homes are 800K now, at 10% down, who has 80K in the bank? Not the idiots living around here :lol:

Now that the spigot of "creative loans" is being shut off, and only the richest 5% of population can afford a home, its time for the slow grind down to continue.
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Obviously these people need to live somewhere. My prediction - in these kinds of areas the rental market is going to soar. As always there there will be a premium to pay for being "poor". If the gov forces changes standards for loan qualifications in a way that makes it harder for subprime lenders to take on more risks then the risk will migrate to individual landlords. Landlords will charge a risk premium and rents will go up. That tells me REITs, pawnshops, and those companies offering loan shark rates on discounted pay check advances are going to be good investments for a long time to come.

What a country! The more government forces incompetent legislation on the masses the more the wealthy will continue to reap windfalls. I don't know when the bourgeois will wisen up and stop insisting on government help that will always make them worse off...

TS
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Obviously you have no knowledge of how expensive Japan RE was at the height of the "bubble". Take what you consider to be the most overpriced area of California and multiply it by eight and then maybe you'll understand Japanese valuations. Even after 15 years of declining prices, Japan is still expensive compared to the U.S.
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At the peak of the bubble (1990), prime real estate in the business district of Tokyo was valued at $100,000 per 8 1/2" by 11". That's 8.5 inches by 11 inches for $100,000.

Aloha.
 
Quote from TrendSailor:

Obviously these people need to live somewhere.
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The same could have been said at the beginning of the last real estate crash here, except they didnt have record inventories like we do now, and real estate grinded down for 7 years in a row.

Also, there are plenty of places to live.

Take a look at my previous charts.
The san diego population has been going straight down for several years in a row now. Its gotten way too expensive and people are moving away. The median detached home is 13x the gross salary of the median family pay.

We have a record over supply of homes/condo's and they are still building condo's like crazy.

I ended my lease, because I see far too many better deals out there these days.
 
TS,

Actually, The migration to other lower cost states could be a prediction too...Your thoughts? I find you an interesting read....thanks.

Michael B.


Quote from TrendSailor:

Obviously these people need to live somewhere. My prediction - in these kinds of areas the rental market is going to soar. As always there there will be a premium to pay for being "poor". If the gov forces changes standards for loan qualifications in a way that makes it harder for subprime lenders to take on more risks then the risk will migrate to individual landlords. Landlords will charge a risk premium and rents will go up. That tells me REITs, pawnshops, and those companies offering loan shark rates on discounted pay check advances are going to be good investments for a long time to come.

What a country! The more government forces incompetent legislation on the masses the more the wealthy will continue to reap windfalls. I don't know when the bourgeois will wisen up and stop insisting on government help that will always make them worse off...

TS
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Its already been happening. People in washington, oregon, nevada, have been complaining about all the californians moving in and driving their traffic, smog and real estate prices up.



Quote from ElectricSavant:

TS,

Actually, The migration to other lower cost states could be a prediction too...Your thoughts? I find you an interesting read....thanks.

Michael B.
More...
 
Quote from 3rdocagt:

At the peak of the bubble (1990), prime real estate in the business district of Tokyo was valued at $100,000 per 8 1/2" by 11". That's 8.5 inches by 11 inches for $100,000.

Aloha.
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That makes the $1000 a foot their getting around my neck of the woods CHEAP!
 
Las%20Vegas%20Jan07%20SF%20Median%20prices.PNG


Its happened elsewhere, lets see if the same happens in san diego.

I just saw a house in del mar sell for less than its 2003 price, almost 50% below the Zillow zestimate :eek:
 
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