You are assuming that most people still put down 20% They don't. You are assuming that most people have at least 20-30% equity in their home and can afford their lifestyle and making their retirement on their current income. They can't. I think that for a large minority of the population these are false assumptions. The latter is certainly false assumption as it applies to most people who will be retiring in the next decade. Downsizing is not going to be an option but an economic imperative.
RealEstate - THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND
- Thread starter traderdragon2
- Start date
Take a look at this article on today's Bloomberg web site:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newspid=20601109&sid=aNoc4LFUSOKw&refer=home
It's a long article, and I suppose nothing new, but it does indicate that some of the worst fears of these things are starting to happen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newspid=20601109&sid=aNoc4LFUSOKw&refer=home
It's a long article, and I suppose nothing new, but it does indicate that some of the worst fears of these things are starting to happen.
I am convinced now that early reporting of unratified economic data is biased to the weak side. In fact it seems to be a matter of policy in some rogue quarters of government (perhaps indicative of political betrayal against the administration, or for you conspiracy theorists economic manipulation to cool inflation fears to "tweak" perceptions and boost the dollar etc.). Whatever. To get the real picture about what is going on it is becoming obvious to me that we have two sets of books here in the USA: 1) The regularly planned economic reports and 2) the "revised" reports coming out months later with corrected information. What is curious is that no one seems to get outraged when the two differ so greatly (clearly few look or listen to what's in book #2).
I personally think the real story is in the revised numbers. But it's actually getting pretty funny to watch this two faced data game. Its' not at all unlike the insane golem character in Tolkien's Lord of the Rings arguing with himself about the merits of helping or killing his "master" Frodo in an internalized schizophrenic battle of good vs. evil.
So with that preamble I give yet another perspective on housing - real facts:
The Commerce Department reported
sales of new homes jumped by 4.8% in December to
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.12 million (the highest level since April). Low interest rates and aggressive buyer incentives boosted sales far beyond the 1.07 million pace that economists expected. Sales in November were also revised
higher; in fact, sales have risen in four out of the past
five months.
The number of unsold new homes sitting on the market in December fell 0.9% to 537,000 ( the fewest since January 2006). Inventories of unsold existing homes fell 7.9% in December to 3.51 million (the smallest inventory of unsold existing homes since June).
Thereâs a real possibility that as inventories tighten up, both new
and existing home prices will also firm up; at least in general. No doubt places like CA will remain problematic for some time.
But the fact is consumer sentiment is soaring and so are retail sales. This economy is firing on nearly all cylinders. If anyone is shorting this stock market you better get out of the way of the bull. Just as soon as the newsletter marketers get word to "Joe Public" he will be jumping into the stock market just as soon as they liquidate their excess real estate equity and shift asset classes. I'd hate to be a perma-bear right now. But hey, somone has to be on the losing side of the transaction to make us others wealthy.
TS
I personally think the real story is in the revised numbers. But it's actually getting pretty funny to watch this two faced data game. Its' not at all unlike the insane golem character in Tolkien's Lord of the Rings arguing with himself about the merits of helping or killing his "master" Frodo in an internalized schizophrenic battle of good vs. evil.
So with that preamble I give yet another perspective on housing - real facts:
The Commerce Department reported
sales of new homes jumped by 4.8% in December to
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.12 million (the highest level since April). Low interest rates and aggressive buyer incentives boosted sales far beyond the 1.07 million pace that economists expected. Sales in November were also revised
higher; in fact, sales have risen in four out of the past
five months.
The number of unsold new homes sitting on the market in December fell 0.9% to 537,000 ( the fewest since January 2006). Inventories of unsold existing homes fell 7.9% in December to 3.51 million (the smallest inventory of unsold existing homes since June).
Thereâs a real possibility that as inventories tighten up, both new
and existing home prices will also firm up; at least in general. No doubt places like CA will remain problematic for some time.
But the fact is consumer sentiment is soaring and so are retail sales. This economy is firing on nearly all cylinders. If anyone is shorting this stock market you better get out of the way of the bull. Just as soon as the newsletter marketers get word to "Joe Public" he will be jumping into the stock market just as soon as they liquidate their excess real estate equity and shift asset classes. I'd hate to be a perma-bear right now. But hey, somone has to be on the losing side of the transaction to make us others wealthy.
TS
Yes, yes, all real estate is local and nationally it might be great. I will let people in Ca or Az speak to their environment, but here in SW Florida its just one disaster after another, see
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070131/BUSINESS/701310325/-1/xml
re 484 homes sold to investors with no money down and a lure of a quick sale after construction. Unfortuanately, the market headed south, the builder balked mid way through, the bank involved is now seeking to A - go private, or B - try to be acquired, and the investors/speculators are indicating they are either getting lawyers or will walk away from the whole deal. Highly risky - highly leveraged investments often result in nasty outcomes for more than those who made the foolish investments at the start.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070131/BUSINESS/701310325/-1/xml
re 484 homes sold to investors with no money down and a lure of a quick sale after construction. Unfortuanately, the market headed south, the builder balked mid way through, the bank involved is now seeking to A - go private, or B - try to be acquired, and the investors/speculators are indicating they are either getting lawyers or will walk away from the whole deal. Highly risky - highly leveraged investments often result in nasty outcomes for more than those who made the foolish investments at the start.
Quote from TrendSailor:
I am convinced now that early reporting of unratified economic data is biased to the weak side. In fact it seems to be a matter of policy in some rogue quarters of government (perhaps indicative of political betrayal against the administration, or for you conspiracy theorists economic manipulation to cool inflation fears to "tweak" perceptions and boost the dollar etc.). Whatever. To get the real picture about what is going on it is becoming obvious to me that we have two sets of books here in the USA: 1) The regularly planned economic reports and 2) the "revised" reports coming out months later with corrected information. What is curious is that no one seems to get outraged when the two differ so greatly (clearly few look or listen to what's in book #2).
I personally think the real story is in the revised numbers. But it's actually getting pretty funny to watch this two faced data game. Its' not at all unlike the insane golem character in Tolkien's Lord of the Rings arguing with himself about the merits of helping or killing his "master" Frodo in an internalized schizophrenic battle of good vs. evil.
So with that preamble I give yet another perspective on housing - real facts:
The Commerce Department reported
sales of new homes jumped by 4.8% in December to
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.12 million (the highest level since April). Low interest rates and aggressive buyer incentives boosted sales far beyond the 1.07 million pace that economists expected. Sales in November were also revised
higher; in fact, sales have risen in four out of the past
five months.
The number of unsold new homes sitting on the market in December fell 0.9% to 537,000 ( the fewest since January 2006). Inventories of unsold existing homes fell 7.9% in December to 3.51 million (the smallest inventory of unsold existing homes since June).
Thereâs a real possibility that as inventories tighten up, both new
and existing home prices will also firm up; at least in general. No doubt places like CA will remain problematic for some time.
But the fact is consumer sentiment is soaring and so are retail sales. This economy is firing on nearly all cylinders. If anyone is shorting this stock market you better get out of the way of the bull. Just as soon as the newsletter marketers get word to "Joe Public" he will be jumping into the stock market just as soon as they liquidate their excess real estate equity and shift asset classes. I'd hate to be a perma-bear right now. But hey, somone has to be on the losing side of the transaction to make us others wealthy.
TS
seasonal factors should not be included pending abnormal weather because they can be skewed..... non seasonally adjusted new home sales for all of 2006 1,063 (5% lower than the seasonally adjusted estimate)
Orange county is checking in,
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/homepage/article_1556536.php
this is a southern part of Los Angeles
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/homepage/article_1556536.php
this is a southern part of Los Angeles
"And if first-time buyers are putting less than 10 percent down with a "stated income" loan, they need to have savings equal to six months worth of mortgage payments."
Considering 85% of san diegans used 100% financed, interest only arm loans to get into the homes in the first place, imagine what these new stricter guidelines are going to do to the "pool of buyers"
Decent homes are 800K now, at 10% down, who has 80K in the bank? Not the idiots living around here :lol:
Now that the spigot of "creative loans" is being shut off, and only the richest 5% of population can afford a home, its time for the slow grind down to continue.
Considering 85% of san diegans used 100% financed, interest only arm loans to get into the homes in the first place, imagine what these new stricter guidelines are going to do to the "pool of buyers"
Decent homes are 800K now, at 10% down, who has 80K in the bank? Not the idiots living around here :lol:
Now that the spigot of "creative loans" is being shut off, and only the richest 5% of population can afford a home, its time for the slow grind down to continue.