RealEstate - THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND

[jem]

while I am not here to predict the bottom.

I will say I despised that income to home price stat before the bubble and I still think it is a meaningless stat.

first, tell me where you get the data from?

Most of the time I see income data I note that it is from the 2000 census. How accurate would that be for san diego income in 2007.

next tell me how many people move to SD to play and retire. When i go to the golf course I see tons of people who have checked out of the working world.

Also how many people live there in the high end houses but report their income in another state. As the price of the house goes up that ratio seems to gets higher and higher.

Affordablity is major problem sure but the price of houses is not necesarily attached to the average workers income.

 

[traderdragon2]

Take a look at this home in a popular area.

http://www.era.com/trulialisting/2069789.html?utm_id=20


If it sells at the low end of what they are asking for, which it probably will, thats $247 a square foot.

These home were going for $340 a sq/ft last year.

27% down in a year. Yup, thats a healthy market right there, yes sir! :eek:

How about this house
http://mylesweisman1.point2agent.co...Details.aspx?ListingID=768347&Bb=TR&Cc=768347

At only, $296 a sq/ft, down from $340 range last year, its a STEAL!!! Surely the buyers are rushing in to snap this beauty up!

Oh wait, its been sitting there for 176 days now LOL

Pffft, no big deal right? Hell, your monthly payment at 5.6% will be a mere $6100 a month! Surely the average family here making $64K a YEAR can afford it!!! LMAOOO.

This market is a joke. NAZ2000 here we come.

 

[TM_Direct]

Quote from TrendSailor:

It sounds like the actual bid administrator was completely incompetent and did not even establish minimum bids. So it turned into a low ball circus and was a waste of every-one's time. The article sums it up rightly with the observer who states that sellers are eager but not desperate. That is exactly the sentiments in our area here in Central FL. There are terrific deals to be had right now but 90% of sellers have so much equity that they can take their time on the offers and market slowness. The bottom feeding sharks just don't get it - not too many sellers are actually in trouble and bleeding.

As soon as this market gets some respect and people see the low hanging fruit picked prices will start trending up again. Just watch - the hoard and greed factor are stronger than the fear factor in this market.

TS

I live in C. Florida.....Re read your quote only this time replace real estate with " Stock Market" and Equity with Margin and you now what you have????? The SAME exact crap that was said about the stock market when the bottom dropped out in 2000....also, EQUITY in you house has a COST asociated with it.....you can only USE that 100k in equity if you take out a loan and make payments....Im not in that boat and there are some good deals, but right now im a vulture on a tree watching carefully as people with 2nd mortgages and home equity lines get sticker shock with their new payments and with their 'balloon payments' from 2002 coming due......timing is everything.

 

[TrendSailor]

Quote from traderdragon2:

More blowing smoke. Notice that you didnt address any of the 800lb gorillas standing in the corner.

Record inventory, record vacancies, record foreclosure rates, no buyers, crazy loans to people with a pulse....

Nah, who cares. I "sense" a turn around. "Its a great time to buy". You sound like a NAR agent.

I see the fed kept interest rates the same. No big surprise there. Gotta keep the fragile real estate from shattering


The median income for a family of four is $63,400/year in san diego.

The median detached home price in san diego is $861,759

Thats 13.6 times gross salary.

Do you know what percentage of people here can actually afford a home without an absolutely insane creative mortgage? Less than 5% last time I checked.


Ooooh yeeeeah, its a GREAT time to buy here. What planet are you from???

The remaining richest 5% of the population here will surely push home prices up another 100%

To me the California market might as well be another country. My comments are relative to the "normal" areas of the country that will do fine - e.g. south, south-east and sun-belt areas. If you are stuck in California in that terrible situation you have no one to blame but yourself. The problem in CA has been going on for 30 years. If it took people this long to realize that it was too expensive to live and work there and pay ultra-high taxes in essentially a social welfare state I have no empathy nor compassion for them. Take your losses and move to someplace that will be in a positive growth situation with an expanding economy. When real estate drops enough in CA the wealthy Japanese will come over and buy up the state for recreational and vacation property. So the down side is limited. At worst - the illegal Mexicans will move in and turn it all into high-density multi-family homes .

Bottom Line - the gorilla has been on the backs of Californians for decades. Its time to reset the economy in that state and toss out the elite social attitudes with a good dose of middle-class reality and hard work. So put down the water-pipe and the Nappa Valley wine and get used to the new reality - times are a-changin for Californians. The smart ones left 10 years ago.

TS

 

[TrendSailor]

Quote from jem:

while I am not here to predict the bottom.

I will say I despised that income to home price stat before the bubble and I still think it is a meaningless stat.

first, tell me where you get the data from?

Frankly I think you are onto something huge here. It may very well be that statisticians are going to someday find a high correlation between the so called housing bubble and off the tax records second income. My thesis is everyone is cheating the crap out of the IRS. I simply refuse to believe that the overwhelming majority of the country is stupid and irresponsible enough to saddle themselves to debt that they do not feel comfortable with. Rather, I am betting that a lot of these people have other income (perhaps not reported or even illegal) or are expecting to receive inheritances or windfalls for whatever reason. Sure, some people are of course complete idiots and up to their eyes in debt that they will never get out from underneath - but I do not believe that is the majority. Its either illegal income or extraneous income or people are just not afraid of being tosses out on the streets into debtor prison (no such thing) for not making a payment. The safety valve is that rentals will be 40cents on the dollar of carrying costs if everyone gets in trouble. So if the worst happens people get a nice place to rent for MUCH less than it costs to own and a tax write off on the real losses as well.

TS

 

[dandxg]

Quote from TrendSailor:

To me the California market might as well be another country. My comments are relative to the "normal" areas of the country that will do fine - e.g. south, south-east and sun-belt areas. If you are stuck in California in that terrible situation you have no one to blame but yourself. The problem in CA has been going on for 30 years. If it took people this long to realize that it was too expensive to live and work there and pay ultra-high taxes in essentially a social welfare state I have no empathy nor compassion for them. Take your losses and move to someplace that will be in a positive growth situation with an expanding economy. When real estate drops enough in CA the wealthy Japanese will come over and buy up the state for recreational and vacation property. So the down side is limited. At worst - the illegal Mexicans will move in and turn it all into high-density multi-family homes .

Bottom Line - the gorilla has been on the backs of Californians for decades. Its time to reset the economy in that state and toss out the elite social attitudes with a good dose of middle-class reality and hard work. So put down the water-pipe and the Nappa Valley wine and get used to the new reality - times are a-changin for Californians. The smart ones left 10 years ago.

TS

TS-you make some good points. I am born and raised in OC, CA. It's true it's all been expensive, but jobs in LA pay better than here in Denver, CO-where I now live, so it's relative. Until 3-4 years ago homes on a normal mortgage program were attainable. Expensive, but strechable and attainable. Now my Mom's big townhouse is $700k. A freakin th, cmon! 1 of her neighbors has 3 Hispanic families living there. Major parking problems, etc. Keep in mind LA Metro is one of the largest economic bases in the world. I forget the exact ranking.

 

[Lights]

You don't seem to understand. Most people can afford monthly payments on their mortgages.

Besides owning a house, you have two other options. Renting or going homeless.

People with the means do not sell their homes so that they can rent at higher prices. Nor do they sell their homes to elect to be homeless.

Quote from traderdragon2:

Well you convinced me. Real Estate markets can therefore never go down. Thats why they went straight down for 7 years in a row during the last crash in san diego.

Forget the fact that the magnitude of the over extenstion is 3X the previous market crash. Thats just noise.

 

[Lights]

They do afford them, hence the price. Given a normal deposit, monthly mortgage payments are near equal renting prices in the city.

Quote from Vinny1:

So you think that these 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1800 square foot 50 year old homes around CA, NJ, and NY will actually go from its current absurd price of 650k to 1 million over the next few years?

What are you smoking?

Most young couples looking for a starter home cannot afford these ridiculous prices in these overpriced areas.

 

[Lights]

a drop of nasdaq2000 proportions would require nearly half of all homeowners to dump their homes in unison. question, where will they live? will they go rent at higher prices as rental demand skyrockets?

Quote from traderdragon2:

Take a look at this home in a popular area.

http://www.era.com/trulialisting/2069789.html?utm_id=20


If it sells at the low end of what they are asking for, which it probably will, thats $247 a square foot.

These home were going for $340 a sq/ft last year.

27% down in a year. Yup, thats a healthy market right there, yes sir! :eek:

How about this house
http://mylesweisman1.point2agent.co...Details.aspx?ListingID=768347&Bb=TR&Cc=768347

At only, $296 a sq/ft, down from $340 range last year, its a STEAL!!! Surely the buyers are rushing in to snap this beauty up!

Oh wait, its been sitting there for 176 days now LOL

Pffft, no big deal right? Hell, your monthly payment at 5.6% will be a mere $6100 a month! Surely the average family here making $64K a YEAR can afford it!!! LMAOOO.

This market is a joke. NAZ2000 here we come.

 

[Lights]

a housing "catastrophe" as many of you are calling for would require the US going back to the stone ages basically. we would go back to bartering feathers and spears and live in caves.

is there a food bubble as well? man, there's just so much inventory at the supermarket.