RealEstate - THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND

Quote from traderdragon2:

...
16.7 million homes sitting vacant in the USA. Who's gonna buy them? Record inventories and some perma-bulls think this is going up? :D
More...

There is only 6.8 month of inventory nation wide. Technically speaking the market is now trending away from a buyer's market toward a seller's market. I think in 2 more quarters we will turn the corner and be in a balanced buyer/seller market with a slight edge to buyers.

As best as I can tell the economy is hitting on every cylinder except transports and housing. Even if housing gets worse from here the earnings growth in corps and the tight labor markets and rising treasury yields all but guarantees a soft landing and a very healthy economy. Only a fool would be bucking this economy or going counter to the stock market bull trend. The US economy is very impressively robust. In fact it may be too hot and require the FED to notch up interest rates to cool inflation pressures as well as support the dollar. A worst case housing scenario will only impact the economy between about 1/13th - 2/13th (or 7% - 15% of the total GDP).

For me, that tells me if I have equity locked up at 6% interest in my home that is slow to sell I might as well tap it and invest it in the market where I can conservatively turn 9%-14% returns on the same money with smart and high quality investments (i.e. well managed companies with accelerating growth earnings and good fundamentals).

The sky is only falling on those who shorted the economy and the market and now can't cover...

TS
 
According to this guy, you are wrong.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

housing-Vacancies.png



Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:



16.7 million? Hardly. Try 2.1 million "vacant" homes.
More...
 
I think in 2 more quarters we will turn the corner and be in a balanced buyer/seller market with a slight edge to buyers.
More...

You think? You THINK? Sounds like wishing to me. I notice the housing perma-bears keep wishing, ignore all the "record" bad numbers, and just kinda freely assert housing will go up, but never really backup that idea with solid numbers.

Lets see here, record inventory, all time record breaking vacancy rate, horrific lending standards with lots of ARMs/Interest only loans in the bubble markets, prices trending straight down for a year straight, the threat of rising interest rates that would absolutely kill the 85% of people who go ARM/interest only loans in areas like san diego, and you think this is going well??

Let me guess, you went LONG the NAZ in 2000 didnt you??? :mrgreen:
 
On this topic I always come back to the same old saw: "All real estate is local". So many of us in Cafifornia and Florida see nothing locally but disaster while those in the mid-west might see a more benign environment. Still, across the country this is a highly leveraged asset, and any increase in interest rates will negatively impact an already weak market. And God forbid we go into a recession, then over leveraged home owners will panic and it will be "look out below"!

Like the late 70s and early 80s, this might be the time to sell your home and rent until prices fall, then buy back an equivalent of your old home for much less at a later date.
 
Quote from wareco:

A major 100+ home and lot auction in S.W. Florida a bust.

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070124/RE/701240443/1075
More...
It sounds like the actual bid administrator was completely incompetent and did not even establish minimum bids. So it turned into a low ball circus and was a waste of every-one's time. The article sums it up rightly with the observer who states that sellers are eager but not desperate. That is exactly the sentiments in our area here in Central FL. There are terrific deals to be had right now but 90% of sellers have so much equity that they can take their time on the offers and market slowness. The bottom feeding sharks just don't get it - not too many sellers are actually in trouble and bleeding.

As soon as this market gets some respect and people see the low hanging fruit picked prices will start trending up again. Just watch - the hoard and greed factor are stronger than the fear factor in this market.

TS
 
You have an excuse for every bad piece of news dont you? Why dont you just face the facts that the deck is fully stacked against real estate right now and the numbers havent been this bad in decades.

Record inventory, record vacancies, record foreclosure rates, no buyers, crazy loans to people with a pulse, what else do you need?

Hell, tommorrow the fed could announce a 5% increase in rates and you would somehow find a way to spin that in a positive light for real estate, LMAO

Listen to your name TRENDsailer, the TREND is down, duh. You have lost all credibility.




Quote from TrendSailor:

It sounds like the actual bid administrator was completely incompetent and did not even establish minimum bids. So it turned into a low ball circus and was a waste of every-one's time.
More...
 
Quote from traderdragon2:

You have an excuse for every bad piece of news dont you? Why dont you just face the facts that the deck is fully stacked against real estate right now and the numbers havent been this bad in decades.

Record inventory, record vacancies, record foreclosure rates, no buyers, crazy loans to people with a pulse, what else do you need?

Hell, tommorrow the fed could announce a 5% increase in rates and you would somehow find a way to spin that in a positive light for real estate, LMAO

Listen to your name TRENDsailer, the TREND is down, duh. You have lost all credibility.
More...

Excuse? I'll have you know that no one ever implied or described me me a flaming optimist. I happen to be a "realist". A realist view means that everything in life has both positive and negative attributes to something or somone. It is the "potential differences" between bipolar extremes that give us the potential to broker deals and make money. Market behaviors are EXACTLY like voltage and current and energy/power. It takes differences in needs and abilities and other factors to make a market. The art of Trend Sailing (e.g. my moniker) is in seeing the subtle shifts in sentiment and directional shifts in much the same way a sailor sees eddy currents, and shifting winds & currents bucking the predominant forces while at sea. Its not equivalent to being a contrarian however. Its more like being very tuned into looking for opportunity.

This is a fantastic time for average people to buy some very terrific properties; properties that many will likely never again be able to come close to consider owning again. There will be many stories head in the next 5 years about how "I coulda shoulda woulda" bought that huge mansion for a song before prices and interest rates shot up again.

Negative perma-bears, such as you, get emotionally locked into a self perpetuating "blues" sort of funk. They think that the market can only get worse and can't see the reversals starting to form. But such as you love to moan and complain so you win even if you do miss the reversal since they you can moan that everyone paid too much and they are all fools. Such as you will be the people we see in the bars bemoaning how bad the economy and life is when employment is soaring and scarcity of materials pushes up material prices. But complaining and whining is what makes such as you "happy". Such is life.

I'll be happy to sell your property for you at a loss just so you can prove yourself right about how bad things are if that is what makes you happy. :D

BTW - my heart goes out to Mrs. Traderdragon2. She must be a saint to live with such a wet mop... :chuckle:

Cheers,
TS
 
More blowing smoke. Notice that you didnt address any of the 800lb gorillas standing in the corner.

Record inventory, record vacancies, record foreclosure rates, no buyers, crazy loans to people with a pulse....

Nah, who cares. I "sense" a turn around. "Its a great time to buy". You sound like a NAR agent.

I see the fed kept interest rates the same. No big surprise there. Gotta keep the fragile real estate from shattering :D


The median income for a family of four is $63,400/year in san diego.

The median detached home price in san diego is $861,759

Thats 13.6 times gross salary.

Do you know what percentage of people here can actually afford a home without an absolutely insane creative mortgage? Less than 5% last time I checked.


Ooooh yeeeeah, its a GREAT time to buy here. What planet are you from???

The remaining richest 5% of the population here will surely push home prices up another 100% :p
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top