Question for Grob/Hershey...

[aweissen]

1. What is a FTT anyway?

FTT means "Failure To Traverse." It is an indication that a trend has ended and a new one has begun.

2. Where does a FTT fit within your sequences? I.e., what precedes a FTT?

FTT sequence:
A channel has formed (i.e. pts 1,2,3 are defined)
Price has visited the RTL, and is in the process of traversing to the LTL (i.e. R2L traverse)

FTT occurs when:
Price does not continue to traverse R2L.
Price begins a L2R traverse.

3. What follows a FTT in your sequence? Related question: is there only one possibility?

Using the FTT as a pt 1 for a new trendline, price continues to follow the new trend.
Volume begins to increase, with a corresponding increase (with the trend) in price.
Pt 2 is established.

Is there only one possibility?

Uh... yes?

Your hang up is probably in 3.

This template for evaluating sequence failures was extremely helpful - spot on, and thank you. (NB the blank look on my face in response to your last question )

So, what I see I need to do is:
1. Review my understanding/definition of a FTT. Compare with my notes.
2. Review my before and after sequences for FTT's. Compare with my notes.
3. Are there any discrepancies? If so, do they address the failure in anticipation? If so, fix my understanding and expectancy.
4. If not, begin the process of identifying the missing sequences for FTTs. Find other FTT's which match this unidentified scenario, and examine for common characteristics. Look at pre and post sequences. Look at the sweep areas (prv, formations, 2min ym, DOM, etc.) on the sweep sheets.
5. Update the sequences.

Maybe you could post your chart again, this time pointing out the FTT bar or bars along your green channel and what you were looking for upon pegging a FTT.

I think this is what you are asking for.

 

[txuk]

Quote from aweissen: Have I drawn this particular channel close to what you have? If so, how would you handle these blips? If not, could you post a comparison channel so I can fix myself

AW, here is my chart to compare. For perspective the lower is a 180m including ON data.

I have the same RTL as your heavy green line. But the LTL that you have marked looks very wide for it to make another traverse, at least from what I normally expect. In that case I start looking for other possible lines of resistance, like the LTL that was in place prior to the bar 26 spike. It turns out it held as resistance on bar 36, which I consider a new pt2. I believe bars 37 through 40 fall somewhere into the category of hitch-dip-stall. They were edging the RTL a bit wider, but never enough volume to BO or start another traverse. Then we finally got some volume on bar 41 and it FTT'd.

 

[Dantheman]

pennants (to my knowledge) are nothing more than a series of FTT's

would grob call this action non-harmonic?

from what i've seen (at least with symmetrical pennants) is that vol increases up to one side, decreases to middle and then increases to other side...then repeats.

i don't know if the above is 'correct'. or if my observation is flawed.

maybe what you have here is a FTP (on aweiss's chart)
necessarily, the further into a pennant you get, the less vol. you'll see until the BO...which can become a FBO yes?

 

[Dantheman]

another way to think about it perhaps.

if you have an FTT, that then fails to make a pt1-2, that is in itself an FTT. FTT occurs going right to left.

 

[Dantheman]

i dunno, maybe someone else will get something out of this too.

mainly i have solidified the "sideline during slow and medium paces as a beginner" mentaility.
and the "GO during fast pace" mentaility.

I now see why mak recommended trading greenspans.

I also see HOW to trade such (i think), need to use the faster fractal for that.

empirically, by my own results today i've proved to myself the following:

fast paced = low risk
slow paced = high(er) risk

news, (the bigger the news the better) is a great purveyor of fast pace.

sct is expert
fast pace only is beginner

(it is such a pain how we have to RE-interpret what others say, even when it is said in such simple ways.)

anyone who wants to offer critique on my actions or thinking it is very welcome.

 

[easyrider]

Remember that cartoon where one vulture says to the other: "patience, my ass, Im gonna kill somethin". I know how he feels this morning.

 

[aweissen]

Quote from Dantheman:

another way to think about it perhaps.

if you have an FTT, that then fails to make a pt1-2, that is in itself an FTT. FTT occurs going right to left.

Just a couple of comments from my perspective on this.

A FTT can only occur after a channel has developed. A channel can only occur after a point three has been identified. A channel has a pt 1, a pt 2, and at the most two pt 3s. The channel may be widened to accomodate a large volume bar during a R2L traverse, however this is not a new pt 2. It may only be widened out on the left side; never the right. The channel pace may be decreased using a new pt 3, in order to accomodate a "cruising altitude."

This is part of my belief system on channels. I'm very comfortable with everything up to the last sentence - I'm working on getting the new pt 3 thing down.

Your and Icarus' comments have indicated that my understanding of FTT's in relation to channels may be off. By the fact that I'm so irritated by these little blips indicates there is a fault somewhere in my belief system. So - on to the task of finding and fixing the bug.

Thanks for input
Anthony

 

[tradingbug]

Here comes a BO in DU at the right side of a long ST channel. aka 1:15 BO

although I know either way can happen, Id prefer up for my stocks sakes.

hehe.

 

[aweissen]

Thanks for the comments and chart txuk.

I don't have a way to identify hips/ditches/stalls yet, so I've added that to my list of research items.

I can't believe I just pulled a Spoonerism on ET. LOL

 

[makosgu]

Quote from aweissen:

FTT means "Failure To Traverse." It is an indication that a trend has ended and a new one has begun.
...

Just a quickie on this... I know there's alot I have to pump in around here. I have too many notebooks to do catch up with.

With an FTT you DO KNOW what's next. You anticipate a BO/FBO of the CHANNEL. So the sequence is one of the following...

1. FTT -> BO (flawless)
2. FTT -> FBO (flaw)

Yes it is true, we deal with flaws in our context. Some don't. I couldn't say exactly which one of the two I am since I deal with many paradigms. What's nice is that they all make money just with different efficacies.

So with the above, I anticipate BOTH since when FTT is present BO & FBO will soon be present. As with most aspects, we move to more detailed aspects and for CHANNELS, which are PV, we check V to distinguish BO/FBO.

In a BO, your YM will show the DOMINANT volume (Red/Black). In a FBO, the switch does not happen R2B=>R2B or B2R=>B2R (ie. NO CHANGE in dominants) whilst a BO will be R2B=>B2R or B2R=>R2B (ie. CHANGE in dominants "R2..,B2.."). This is YM stuff. Crude PRV is also just as effective if you only look at ES charts... However, you will need to know whether the Volume bar is extending long or extending short. Grob does this by looking at the DOM for the small size continually and even possibly exclusively. I do it more crudely by PRVing my BID VOLUME and ASK VOLUME, and placing them alongs side the PRV volume. One of the two sides will be greater. The greater side is the side on which the current bar is extending itself... On the DOM, the smaller side size is the direction in which the bar is extending itself. Things get really fuzzy for most on the DOM because they do not recognize the fact that the DOM does alot of bouncing between two pairs, one of which is the dominant pair on which to monitor the small size. You just have to look for the small size when it shows up. Admittedly tho, that size value also changes depending on the volume zone (ie. extraordinary, fast, medium, etc.)... I'm moving way off topic... SORRY...

Unfortunately, it is very hard for me to condense material and post on all bases covering the topic at hand. It is my weakness.... Also keep in mind that when you're looking exclusively at channels, it is not possible to retrieve finer level monitoring details. With channels, the resolution is only as fine as a bar's volatility. This is why you move your monitoring to a finer resolution (medium zoom in). Otherwise, just settle for the cruder points as opposed to finer ticks. I understand that this might make the difference between a positive and negative trade but it must be understood that the efficacies of are channel have an acceptable degree of crudeness. It took me quite a while to come to grips with this... CHANNELS have crude edges, this is why early on I pointed out the fact that I am always loose. As a result, things are as Grob states, most of the time FTTs/BOs/FBOs are zones as opposed to a single point which of course you can see. It's just alot easier when you accept that they are a zone. My BO/FBO zone is between the RTL and an offset from the RTL (ie. crude/coarse). The BO will have increasings V's whilst the FBO will have decreasing V's which can be evaluated based on their pace characteristics usually...

Regards,
MAK!

Also, in channels, TRAVERSES are the DOMINANTS as opposed to the retraces.