Question for Grob/Hershey...

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Question about the PM action today:

OK - I was short at 13:00 anticpating a R-L of the ST short trend.

I was in at with a really loose stop around 1268

Well.. the grind from 1300 to 1500 was quite boring and long... so it gave me plenty of time to reflect on my entry.

1) What blockers might have appeared to kill to R-L traverse on the ST short. Contextually - everything looked perfect to me... and that's why I took the trade. Perfect pt3 across lunch and into the early PM.

2) OK experts - did i get in too early? I was anticipating this trade from yesterday's close - so I feel like I had waited long enough... was it still not enough time?

J
 
Quote from cnms2:

R+1 > 1/P where: R = average Win / average Loss, P = probability of Win
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haha thanks for the laugh

so i guess what makes a choo choo go fast is s = d/t

must be time for some egg nog
 
Quote from icarus618:

What is it that makes money in trading?
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Well sure -- we were in DU... and the next thing in the sequence is BO. I hopped on in during the DU because the context was saying short. I knew the slow pace would just drift us around in a narrow range and eventually lightning would strike.

I'm putting a specific belief on trial here... was it a mistake/prediction to get in as early as I did? When I got in I thought it wasn't going to be 2 hours early. It was. Everything worked out fine.

I don't want "everything worked out fine" to be the measure of the belief... because you can apply that same thinking to the flip of a coin.

What specific blockers could have appeared here that would have taken the eventual BO to the long side?
 
Quote from BA_Trader:

Well sure -- we were in DU... and the next thing in the sequence is BO. I hopped on in during the DU because the context was saying short. I knew the slow pace would just drift us around in a narrow range and eventually lightning would strike.

I'm putting a specific belief on trial here... was it a mistake/prediction to get in as early as I did? When I got in I thought it wasn't going to be 2 hours early. It was. Everything worked out fine.

I don't want "everything worked out fine" to be the measure of the belief... because you can apply that same thinking to the flip of a coin.

What specific blockers could have appeared here that would have taken the eventual BO to the long side?
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Bull Term: We are currently in a bull term market.

Long Term: We just finished a first R to L traverse which happened to hit the Resistance level of the Bull Term trend.

Intermediate Term: We were in a lateral IT channel easily seen on the 60 min which was riding Bull Term resistance.

Short Term: Yesterday and this morning we were in change mode riding the support level of the IT channel.

The Terms may be different and I hope their is no confusion.

This afternoon, in the last hour, I had us break the IT lateral, for a new IT which is also a L to R traverse of the Long Term and maybe Bull Term.

Now that you see what I was looking at, how you were able to predict that we would not have another R to L traverse of the lateral IT out of the DU. You may be seeing something I do not see and am very intersted.
 
Quote from tradingbug:

This afternoon, in the last hour, I had us break the IT lateral, for a new possible L to R IT short traverse which is also a L to R traverse of the Long Term and maybe Bull Term.

Now that you see what I was looking at, how you were able to predict that we would not have another R to L traverse of the lateral IT. You may be seeing something I do not see.

It was very tough to gather your belief system from your post and the exact reasoning of why you took the short.

So, for starters, what term is your trade for?
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I trade the ST.

The one thing that differs for me is I have a FTP on the IT - which overlapped into an IT short... around 12/16.

I think that is the difference for me here is this - I saw the trend beginning to migrate into a new IT short around 12/16 -- and 12/27 capped it for me.

This is why I felt like I had the right to go short this PM.
 
I was looking at a retracement forming for 2 days after the strong move on the morning of 27 dec. There´s a resistence level at 1268 that had been tested 4-5 times, very lame attempts. So I also had a bias to the short side, although I would never have gone short where ba trader went short.

If that is cause of lack of balls, lack of understanding or if I´m just reasonably cautious, I don´t know?

I guess there is a lot of subjectivity to this after all :)
 

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yesterday I´d been sitting all day waiting for a move and a retracement, so after 3.30 I´m sitting with my finger on the button. I´m expecting the bar at 3.55 to be the real thing. i wait for the bar to close but it doesn´t take of so I figure either there will be no more strong moves or it will take another couple of minutes.
So I go to the toilet for 45 seconds or something. When I came back, well, then it was almost over...
 
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