Question for Grob/Hershey...
- Thread starter makosgu
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Quote from easyrider:
pushing the correct buttons at the correct time.
lol good answer. i was thinking even simpler than that actually - the trading mind, specifically, the trading mind in ANTICIPATION.
what was the question again? something about predicting when and which way a bo will go and entering during du.
there's nothing against entering on du, i do it sometimes too, always with a reversal order ready and my flag up. yet i always know whose job it is to determine the timing of entries. what this means is i am in high attention for who knows how long. not the best way to use my energy for what's usually at most a 2-3 tick head start on the bo. i realize that BA and i operate on different fractals.
i'll add to what i said about timing by saying that any person who expects a bo out of du to go in only one direction hasn't seen enough in the market. think about it this way for example, when price reaches either side of a channel, is there only one possibility that is next in the sequence? it's alright if you think there is. it's nothing a few wtf experiences can't fix.
i have a pet name for my favorite wtf sequence: failure to pt 3.
in any case, it is worthwhile for sure to consider what goes into pushing the right buttons at the right time.
Icarus - great comments.
I'll argue 2 points:
1) If you enter "just in time" you are liable to get whipsawed by a FBO. How is this any better or worse than having a position when the market does a failure to pt3?
If the FBO hits my stop - it's not an FBO... I'm stopped out for a loss.
(Bear in mind that I trade the ST and I trade quite loose - so this might be apples and oranges)
2) If you enter in DU anticpating a direction you typically (AFAIK) get some sort of articulation in the sequence. It may be very weak or dead -- but it is enough to say - get out of that now.
(Same caveat as above... if you trade 5 minute bars you probably get only a bar of indication... maybe less. Trading the ST you get maybe 30 minutes of warning.
For example -- for 5 minute bars... 3 rising bars on low volatility and low vol. One red bar - maybe a tick longer - maybe a little more vole. Then more rising bars)
btw - I encourage all of the beginners to trade the ST! You can get away with being a bit sloppy.
I'll argue 2 points:
1) If you enter "just in time" you are liable to get whipsawed by a FBO. How is this any better or worse than having a position when the market does a failure to pt3?
If the FBO hits my stop - it's not an FBO... I'm stopped out for a loss.
(Bear in mind that I trade the ST and I trade quite loose - so this might be apples and oranges)
2) If you enter in DU anticpating a direction you typically (AFAIK) get some sort of articulation in the sequence. It may be very weak or dead -- but it is enough to say - get out of that now.
(Same caveat as above... if you trade 5 minute bars you probably get only a bar of indication... maybe less. Trading the ST you get maybe 30 minutes of warning.
For example -- for 5 minute bars... 3 rising bars on low volatility and low vol. One red bar - maybe a tick longer - maybe a little more vole. Then more rising bars)
btw - I encourage all of the beginners to trade the ST! You can get away with being a bit sloppy.
I just started to read this forum. Unfortunately, there is a lot of unfamilar terms being used, such as "ST". Can some one please tell me what a "ST" is or point to another forum where it is defined? I tried a search, but didn't find any specific mention of "ST". Thanks in advance.
I parsed your post below for clarity.
With regard to the second part of your statement, whipsaw and FBO, let me begin by saying I take it you see them as a close pair. From my viewpoint, the natural pair is BO and FBO. I would pair the term "whipsaw" with what I call "wtf" because the feelings resulting from them are probably similar, something like "what the fuck just happened I took a trade based on what I saw and what I've seen in the past and it didn't do what I expected it to do and I lost money, damn." Well, I know FBO is always on the table. I know all FBOs require action, which is not a hold. Whipsaw and wtf feelings do not belong on the table labeled "Making Money."
Happy New Year.
No argument here, just some clarification and expansion of my earlier comments within the context of your post.
To start, I think nothing negative can be said about entering a trade just in time. Having said that, I don't put any special emphasis on the entry as a person interested in making money. Regardless of entry, taking action when called for is what grows the account. Jack calls this "staying on the right side of the market." I do not see this as being the same as saying "always expect to come out ahead between every action." So in the context of entering on du in anticipation of a bo, the fact of being in the market is not that important as opposed to taking action (which includes holding) when the bo arrives.
With regard to the second part of your statement, whipsaw and FBO, let me begin by saying I take it you see them as a close pair. From my viewpoint, the natural pair is BO and FBO. I would pair the term "whipsaw" with what I call "wtf" because the feelings resulting from them are probably similar, something like "what the fuck just happened I took a trade based on what I saw and what I've seen in the past and it didn't do what I expected it to do and I lost money, damn." Well, I know FBO is always on the table. I know all FBOs require action, which is not a hold. Whipsaw and wtf feelings do not belong on the table labeled "Making Money."
Alright, I might have thrown a curve with my reference to failure to pt 3. I put that amongst the World Trading Federation experiences. But let's look closer at the FP3. A failure to pt 3 is a BO. It is a BO from a DU where a person may have had expectations for a new trend but instead got a continuation of the current trend. So in that sense, an FP3 is just a misreading of the current trend and in and of itself does not exist. In any case, the point is still the same. A BO requires action, which includes holding if I'm in the market during DU.
I'm not sure if I get what you mean here. Where a person's stop is or whether a loss results are, to me, irrelevant to an FBO. An FBO is always on the table with a BO.
Yes we operate on different fractals, but trading "loose" is relative to the operating fractal, is it not? You don't mention what bar duration you operate on.
Yes, certainly, looking closer gives a heads up. The important thing is to take action when called for, whether looking within the bar or at it.
Look at bar 55 following the BO on 54 as being illustrative of an indication. Also compare that series with what followed the BO on 68.
No comment, other than to say successful learning is the only way.
Happy New Year.
Dont know why this struck me so funny but it did. I think some people think sct means never losing. Im feeling pretty good. Glad to get this year over with. Its been a very good year but Im really looking forward to 2006. I diddled around all day yesterday but caught the late breakdown and today I twiddled my thumbs all day but shorted that spike 2 ticks from the high and snatched 2 points out of nowhere all of which makes me feel good about the future. Happy New Year to you and all.
Morning, I wanted to make all of you aware of a software application that I came across recently and found to be very useful. It's a desktop search engine called Copernic, and is probably the best free software that I've encountered over the years.
http://www.copernic.com/
I've tried others in the past, such as Google desktop, and I found this to be far more useful. It indexes every word in every document that it knows how to parse. As you type for example M-A-C-D, it lists the files containing that grouping of letters, and filters the list further with each successive letter that you type, with blazing speed. It's got a preview pane so you can quickly go through the list one-by-one and view the highlighted text that it found, without having to open the document in its native app. The only annoyance I noticed was that it installed a "search bar" for internet searches on my windows taskbar by default, but I found that it can be turned off in the options menu.
I've already amassed a sizable collection of trading-related documents that I downloaded or created by copy/pasting posts into Word docs. The combination of these docs with a powerful search engine makes a very useful research tool.
Happy new year !
http://www.copernic.com/
I've tried others in the past, such as Google desktop, and I found this to be far more useful. It indexes every word in every document that it knows how to parse. As you type for example M-A-C-D, it lists the files containing that grouping of letters, and filters the list further with each successive letter that you type, with blazing speed. It's got a preview pane so you can quickly go through the list one-by-one and view the highlighted text that it found, without having to open the document in its native app. The only annoyance I noticed was that it installed a "search bar" for internet searches on my windows taskbar by default, but I found that it can be turned off in the options menu.
I've already amassed a sizable collection of trading-related documents that I downloaded or created by copy/pasting posts into Word docs. The combination of these docs with a powerful search engine makes a very useful research tool.
Happy new year !
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