Price Action. Please clarify something for me

[stephenszpak]

Quote from stephenszpak:

Trying to get a demo of Ninja Trader 5 to work now.

-Stephen

Oh well 2 hours later. Some 25 digit cab file is corrupt.

Won't start up.

-Stephen

 

[stephenszpak]

Quote from cnms2:

Check this: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1026187#post1026187

55%

Extremely close to 50/50.

Thanks,

-Stephen

 

[tatsimon]

To those who answered the question about the % wins, what are your profit to loss ratios plz?

Thanks

 

[stephenszpak]

For what's it's worth I finally got *something* to work:

http://www.lionsfutures.com/Jtraderonlinedemo.html

-Stephen

 

[cnms2]

%Win is only part of the equation. Average Win / Average Loss is another. Then it matters how many such trades you can have in a year, observing your money management rules.

As you know trend followers have low %Win rates (less than 35%), and they are still quite profitable.

Quote from stephenszpak:

55%

Extremely close to 50/50.

Thanks,

-Stephen

 

[stephenszpak]

Quote from cnms2:

%Win is only part of the equation. Average Win / Average Loss is another. Then it matters how many such trades you can have in a year, observing your money management rules.

As you know trend followers have low %Win rates (less than 35%), and they are still quite profitable.

Yes, of course. But doesn't this indicate your (no offense
intended) analysis is close to having the accuracy of a coin
flip? I'm not being nasty.

-Stephen

 

[stephenszpak]

Quote from stephenszpak:

For some reason I get:

Java Applet Failed

or

Internet Explorer can not download from

openPATSWindow();
No such interface supported


This doesn't sound good,

-Stephen

I re-started my computer.
I believe I have the latest version of Java.

I came across a second site that requires Java to
run a Jtrader demo. Didn't run there either.

Any suggestions? Is this a ActiveX matter?????

-Stephen

 

[sgsaxton]

Quote from sulong:

It can, but it doesn't very often. Most often price will slow down first, and then turn, if it does.

Sulong, are you trading using Joe Ross methods? Reason I ask is I saw some posts of yours on a T2W thread.

Steve

 

[cnms2]

I don't think so.

Your %win depends on other factors besides your entry. Only combining a coin flip entry with a coin flip exit will give you zero expectancy over a large number of trials (ignoring slippage and commissions).

Here there is an article on this subject: Play a Game You Can Win by Paul M King

Imagine a simple coin-tossing game where you win whatever you stake if heads comes up, lose what you stake if tails comes up, and you are charged 1% of your stake each turn to play. Can you win money at this game? If you are familiar with the concept of expectancy, then you will probably answer "No" since over many turns the amount won will be equal to the amount lost (assuming the coin is a fair one) and after factoring in the 1% cost of playing you will lose money overall. ...

... So how can we change the game so that we can win? There are three aspects to the game which can be adjusted to increase our chances of winning consistently:

• We can tip the chance of a winner in our favor from 50/50
• We can increase the size of the payout from 1:1
• We can reduce the cost of playing the game

Tipping the chances of a winner is not possible in a fair coin toss game, but it is possible in trading. ...

Quote from stephenszpak:

Yes, of course. But doesn't this indicate your (no offense
intended) analysis is close to having the accuracy of a coin
flip? I'm not being nasty.

-Stephen

 

[stephenszpak]

http://www.globalfutures.com/platforms/jtrader_tutorial.asp

Videos here if anyone wants to know.
Works okay in RealPlayer.
Suggest you view them a number of times. He covers a lot
VERY quickly.


Introduction
Order Entry
Reflector
Ending

-Stephen