Price Action. Please clarify something for me

I was wondering if the more experienced members at
this thread have a system or methodology that gives
profitable trades >50% of the time. (The amount of
actual profit is, perhaps irrelavent.)

I don't need to know what it is, just asking.

I've spent ( though not recently ) MANY hours with
support/resistance trendlines, moving averages.

I assume some people just can't make these two work????

I mean I see prices stop their downward move at a support
level...then they go up OR they go down. Not helpful.

A moving average crossover indicates long trades at tops
and short trades at bottoms just as often as the other way
round.


Wishing I could trade, every so often I come here and chat,

Thanks,

Stephen Szpak
 
Quote from stephenszpak:

I was wondering if the more experienced members at
this thread have a system or methodology that gives
profitable trades >50% of the time. (The amount of
actual profit is, perhaps irrelavent.)

I don't need to know what it is, just asking.

I've spent ( though not recently ) MANY hours with
support/resistance trendlines, moving averages.

I assume some people just can't make these two work????

I mean I see prices stop their downward move at a support
level...then they go up OR they go down. Not helpful.

A moving average crossover indicates long trades at tops
and short trades at bottoms just as often as the other way
round.


Wishing I could trade, every so often I come here and chat,

Thanks,

Stephen Szpak
More...

Stephen,

My charts are Simple....using Trendlines....Support and Resistance....and an indicator I developed. I don't use Moving Averages....or any other indicator. For me....less is best.

Too many traders Overload their charts with way too much Information....meaning....indicators. Why?....because when I use to do that....it was because I did not trust any one indicator....so I needed each one to verify the other....but that is way in the past. My charts have been very much the same for many years now. They are easy to understand....for me. It is about Pattern Recognition. It is about Discipline....based on a Set of Rules.

I won't tell you what my Percentage of wins are....but it is good. You can find a few of my charts in some other threads....just do a search.

I believe Price Action is very important. My view of Price Action....may be a lot different than other traders. I am a Scalper....and I will often make a Trade....based on Price Action "within" a Candle. I use Tick Charts only....with a Tick Counter and a Tick "indicator"....if you want to call it that....that tells me which is in control....uP ticks....or Down ticks. Based on the UpTick_DownTick difference (positive or negative)....and how many Ticks are left on the Tick Counter....and the Behavior of the Prices within the Candle....I will then decide on whether to Enter a trade or not. Of course....I am also looking for a Particular Candle Pattern....whether or not Prices are in a Range....etc.

When scalping....I also look at one other thing. I use J-Trader....which has the Accumulated Depth of Market for the Bid and Ask. When I see at least a 2 to 1 spread on the ACV....odds are the market will go in the direction of the spread. Combine all this....and I can see this extremely fast....because I don't have to look at a bunch of Indicators on my chart....and I will more than likely have a good trade.

Probably confused you....hell....started to confuse myself.

VSTscalper
 
Quote from VSTscalper:

Stephen,

My charts are Simple....using Trendlines....Support and Resistance....and an indicator I developed. I don't use Moving Averages....or any other indicator. For me....less is best.

Too many traders Overload their charts with way too much Information....meaning....indicators. Why?....because when I use to do that....it was because I did not trust any one indicator....so I needed each one to verify the other....but that is way in the past. My charts have been very much the same for many years now. They are easy to understand....for me. It is about Pattern Recognition. It is about Discipline....based on a Set of Rules.

I won't tell you what my Percentage of wins are....but it is good. You can find a few of my charts in some other threads....just do a search.

I believe Price Action is very important. My view of Price Action....may be a lot different than other traders. I am a Scalper....and I will often make a Trade....based on Price Action "within" a Candle. I use Tick Charts only....with a Tick Counter and a Tick "indicator"....if you want to call it that....that tells me which is in control....uP ticks....or Down ticks. Based on the UpTick_DownTick difference (positive or negative)....and how many Ticks left on the Tick Countdown....and the Behavior of the Prices within the Candle....I will then decide on my Entry. Of course....I am also looking for a Particular Candle Pattern....whether or not Prices are in a Range....etc.

When scalping....I also look at one other thing. I use J-Trader....which has the Accumulated Depth of Market for the Bid and Ask. When I see at least a 2 to 1 spread on the ACV....odds are the market will go in the direction of the spread. Combine all this....and I can see this extremely fast....because I don't have to look at a bunch of Indicators on my chart....and you will more than likely have a good trade.

Probably confused you....hell....started to confuse myself.

VSTscalper
More...


VSTscalper

Thanks for the extensive reply.

I guess I'll have to assume that your winning trades
exceed 50%. (If you said they didn't I'd reply 'why don't
you just flip a coin to determine market direction?'

So your indicator is not a moving average based?

Your indicator is:

UpTick_DownTick difference (positive or negative)....and how many Ticks left on the Tick Countdown

AND

Basically to go/no go regarding this:

Accumulated Depth of Market for the Bid and Ask. When I see at least a 2 to 1 spread on the ACV....odds are the market will go in the direction of the spread.

-Stephen (set your clocks tonight, Spring Ahead)
 
Quote from stephenszpak:

I was wondering if the more experienced members at
this thread have a system or methodology that gives
profitable trades >50% of the time. (The amount of
actual profit is, perhaps irrelavent.)

I don't need to know what it is, just asking.
More...

Yes! And the best part is that I use no misleading indicators. No indicators at all in fact.
 
Quote from hcour:

If you're interested in pv analysis you may want to check out Nic's Yahoo Wyckoff group:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Wyckoff-SMI/

There's lots of info in the Files section. Also search in the group for posts by David Weis, who wrote the middle section of the book "Charting the Stock Market: The Wyckoff Method". Also posts by CofferSpeculator and Pete_cm are good.

There are also good threads here on ET in the Journals section on pv by dbphoenix:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=29005&highlight=price+and+volume

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33766&highlight=price+and+volume

H
More...

Thanks a lot for these, hcour.
 
VSTscalper

VSTscalper wrote:

I use Tick Charts only....with a Tick Counter and a Tick "indicator"....if you want to call it that....that tells me which is in control....uP ticks....or Down ticks. Based on the UpTick_DownTick difference (positive or negative)....and how many Ticks are left on the Tick Counter

So your counter is constantly looking back to the previous
50 ticks (or whatver). If 26 up and 24 down, then the
trend is still up. Or did I totally miss what you were trying
to say?

-Stephen
 
Quote from sulong:

Yes! And the best part is that I use no misleading indicators. No indicators at all in fact.
More...

Sulong is Right....you really don't need Indicators. Actually....you don't really need Charts. When I travel....I usually go to a Starbucks....trade with my Laptop. I never open up my charting program. I just use the ACV on J-Trader....and Scalp. Of course....doing this....I Scalp only....never try to get into a Trend. However....you can see the Trend....on the Dome....without ever looking at a Chart. All by watching a sort of Price Action.

This is not for everybody. I have been doing this for years.

I think of Indicators being like a...."security blanket"....haha. We have been taught that we need them....but for my Scalping....it is not really necessary. Having said that....I do use my own Indicator.

VSTscalper
 
Quote from stephenszpak:

And this is on the e-mini? (or other?)

-Stephen
More...

Yes. YM and NQ.

Harold explained a bread and butter setup earlier in the thread, that silver tongued devil.

Once your mind clicks on the price action and the emotion behind it, it all becomes clear.
 
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