Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

Quote from nitro:

Weatherman run their predictions in realtime just like everyone else.

Also, there is a prejudice in your assumption that the value at T, or T-1, or whatever lag, is better predictor than another lag of the value at T + 1. You don't know what the right lag(s) are until you do the research.

There is nothing about "now" that makes it special in all cases, or trading in particular, other than that is what the current supply and demand balance is at.

nitro
More...


these are words of total market emersion. nice to see you back, nitro!

great ET thread, by the way. thanks!

surf:)
 
I understand what you are saying. But the reason that you buy if above the line, stay flat if at the line, and go short if below the line is, or must be because you feel that the cause of being above the line effects the profitability of being long, ie., has positive expectation. Same for below the line. This can only be evaluated in the presence of experience, which means you have memory and are stateful. The only market participants that have no state are pure arbitrageurs.

If there were no such expectation from following these rules, then you would not apply them.

Let me put it to you this way. Imagine that your system instead was, I will flip a coin and if the coin comes up heads, I will go long, and if it comes up tails I will go short. The coin is acting in the same fashion as your line in your system, but you would not trade this system because you have not noticed any cause of the coin leading to an effect in being profitable being long or short based on the coin rule.

nitro
Quote from makosgu:

My point nitro is that there are only three types of basic trades. You are either short/long/out of the market. Weatherman do run their predictions in realtime about something that's going to happen in the future. When you look closely at their models, they are based on precursor conditions in other parts of the country (ie. jet stream, air pressure gradients, upper atmosphere disturbances, lower atmosphere disturbances). They usually start with "current conditions". Current being what's happening right now (ie. light rain, 43 degrees, winds out of the NorthWest @ 5-10mph, barometric pressure at 30.12mbars, etc.). I am not biasing data one way or another by using past or future data. With only 3 types of trades, I am simply saying, what is the "current conditions"???. If the current condition is that Price is above my right line Price Point, that to me is, a LONG weather state. If Price is belowmy right trendline Price Piont, that to me is, a SHORT weather state. I am not predicting that, it is a statement, just like when you look out the window and say it is raining outside or it is snowing or it is sunny out. It is because you are describing what you are currently seeing. My reason for this orientation is that I am a firm believer in that no one can tell where the market is going to go with better accuracy then stating what it is doing in the present. To do the latter, requires defining some type of environment that can describe the state. Mine is a line. For some it is an oscillator. We are two camps. I am not arguing this fact. What I am saying is that this is a difference, it is not a one way street...
More...
 
Quote from nitro:

I understand what you are saying. But the reason that you buy if above the line, stay flat if at the line, and go short if below the line is, or must be because you feel that the cause of being above the line effects the profitability of being long. Same for below the line. This can only be evaluated in the presence of experience, which means you have memory and are stateful. The only market participants that have no state are arbitrageurs.

If there were no such expectation from following the these rules, then you would not apply them.

Let me put it to you this way. Imagine that your system instead was, I will flip a coin, and if the coin comes up heads, I will go long, and if it comes up tails I will go short. The coin is acting in the same fashion as your line in your system, but you would not trade this system because you have not noticed any cause of the coin leading to an effect in being profitable being long or short based on the rule.

nitro
More...

humorous analogy.

Thanks for the humor.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

humorous analogy.

Thanks for the humor.
More...


nitro's analogy is spot on. it is the result of countless hours crunching data. not the creation of a new lanquage presented like a bizzare codex to veil true confusion or actual intentions.

regards, surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

nitro's analogy is spot on. it is the result of countless hours crunching data. not the creation of a new lanquage presented in bizzare codex to veil true confusion or actual intentions.

regards, surf
More...

Thank you for your regards.

I accept your commentary on Nitro as being what he does and what he does not do.

Regarding his analogy, I clearly understand that you identify with it; so do many others.

The weatherman and the trader similarities as how each dealt with data sets, standardized approaches to get the job done, and dealing with an aspect of where weather counts and where NOW counts in trading was a neat picture.

Nitro joins the scene. Is he doing weather or trading. No he is reaching in his pocket. Does he pull out a data set and and its paradigm and comment upon something appropriate?

No, he takes "result of countless hours crunching data." and says.............

Taking successive data sets in succession and each time doing a four part routine is NOT, as you say..."the creation of a new lanquage presented in bizzare codex to veil true confusion or actual intentions."

What we do in NOW is NOT flip one data element to get one of two answers.

We do what anyone monitoring a dynamic scientific system does.

The person takes repeated measures of data sets and records them, analyzes the data sets one by one, decides the status of the system and then finally, acts in some way to deal with the system.

Our actions are to make the system work for us all of the time and to get out of the system what is available at any given time.

We do NOT allow coins in the lab; nor do we flip them as we do this science.

with regard to yours and Nitro vocabulary and the reports of the science you do with the systems you use, we understand your vocabulary and the use of the terms and tools and maths and measurements that you make.

We, however, are looking at pool extraction, doing it effectively and efficiently and optimizing our participation in the system.

To do this we do not, in our science lab, get ahead of real time nor do we dwell on the past times. We simply as scientists deal with the reality that everything in science that is happening is happening in the present. We call it NOW. We are running what is know as a continuous process and we so label it: "Seamless Continuous trading". SCT.

So what Nitro says is a good and humorous break from what we do. He is flipping coins for some reason that is outside, I hope, of his "the result of countless hours crunching data." on his part that you know he does in the way he does it.

Flipping coins is funny when there is money flowing out of the market to people in the market, on the right side of the market and who are doing a scientific routine in the present referred to as NOW.
 
Quote from Walther:

Markets are symmetrical and cyclical , therefore predictable.
Amen
More...

Or

Markets are symmetrical and cyclical , therefore there is no need to predict but to just do a routine in NOW to extract what is available all of the time.
Amen
 
I dont think the argument is whether they are predictable or not but rather is it possible to trade without predicting. It has come all they way back to: you would not be trading if you did not predict you would make money. Of course you are predicting you are going to make money overall but I think this misses the point. Hersheys method is trading from bar to bar and acting on the relationship of the present bar to the previous bar and the pro rata volume of present bar to the completed volume of the previous bar and the relationship of these bars to the current channel lines. This data is coming at you continously throughout the day and you hold or reverse depending on what they are telling you. Now setting aside whether you believe it works or not, I do not see where prediction enters into the process. As I said before if your job is to drive a car all day and all you have to do is obey the traffic signs which are: go, pause, continue, reverse, exit, you are not predicting, imho. You just follow directions.
 
Given the impossibility of convincing someone of something as simple of this, what chance is there of a useful discussion between religious fundamentalists (christian or islamic) and secular science. It doesn't look good for world peace.

Scientific or statistical argument is not perceivable by the fundamentalist.


______________________
The things people believe in are usually just what they instinctively feel is right; the justifications and arguments are the least important part of the belief.
That's why you can win the argument, prove them wrong, and still they believe what they did in the first place. You've attacked the wrong thing.
So what do you do? Agree to disagree. Or fight. - C. Zakalwe.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Given the impossibility of convincing someone of something as simple of this, what chance is there of a useful discussion between religious fundamentalists (christian or islamic) and secular science. It doesn't look good for world peace.
More...


I put my faith in capitalism. When I see kids in China with purple hair I cant help but feel the arabian kids will succumb to hip hop too.:) Prosperity for all is the only cure, imo.

p.s. I dont expect to win any arguments here either.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top