Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

[KPCURRENCY]

Quote from marketsurfer:

what you are missing is its never in the NOW. its always in the past, the entry is what makes it in the NOW. the very nature of the data makes it in the past. any other view is simply delusional.

surf

By definition, an up trend means the market is making higher highs and higher lows. I concede that.

For me, being in the now means:

* when you see the up trend you conclude the market IS rising.

* Not that the market has been rising.

* And with no regard to the Hope or prediction that the market will rise.

It is absurd and ludicrous to say that one can make a relative comparison on one bar alone. But it is also narrow minded to say since one has to use past data to make a comparison one is in the past.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from KPCURRENCY:

By definition, an up trend means the market is making higher highs and higher lows. I concede that.

For me, being in the now means:

* when you see the up trend you conclude the market IS rising.

* Not that the market has been rising.

* And with no regard to the Hope or prediction that the market will rise.

It is absurd and ludicrous to say that one can make a relative comparison on one bar alone. But it is also narrow minded to say since one has to use past data to make a comparison one is in the past.

Interestingly your conclusions are not reality based. You should conclude:

- the market HAS been rising
- if the rise meets criteria X (your criteria for age and likelihood of continuation) then its likely to continue rising
- thus, I, the great KPCurrency, conclude that its worth entering long if Y happens.

The link between the historical time series you see (already over 30ms old by the time your brain is aware of processing it) which is a reasonably current view of what has happened in the past and what you do (in the future) is based on prediction of continuation or reversal.

Modern cognitive science suggests that your perception of the present, like your perception of your "self" is not quite what you think it is. You might feel you are reacting to the present but thats just a convenient illusion. Having said that, if the illusion helps you to trade well then, unless you happen to trade the HSI and are thus trading against me, its not really my place to dispel such a functional illusion. Good luck with it.

 

[kiwi_trader]

swingfade ... you missed my earlier post sadly.

To trade probabilities you must predict that they will continue to apply in the future. Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

 

[kiwi_trader]

No. The next trade doesn't matter.

If you don't predict that the probabilities apply to the series of trades you will take from this point on then you don't trade.

Imagine what would happen if the probabilities were no longer 2:1 but dropped to 0.8:1

Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

 

[kiwi_trader]

OK. Let me explain this like you were a halfwit.

Its not a coin halfwit.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Personal abuse ... LOL ... "Ok lets explain this like you are 5 years old".

You wanker.

 

[acronym]

Quote from swingnfade:

Ok lets explain this like you are 5 years old

If I flip a coin 100 times I know I will get 50 heads and 50 tails... I don't have to predict that... it is a known quantity

Fwiw, thats total bunkum.

Over a millenia, or at some point in the future, the 50-50 scenario stacks up, however-(im so glad i remembered this link, and thanx again to whomever posted it first) but try this on for size.

http://www.agribiz.com/merchdiz/cointoss/cointoss.html

Buy dips, look for divergence

 

[kiwi_trader]

OK. We know you're a wanker. And we know you don't understand statistics, probability or their application to trading - so we know you are wrong.

But given your 3 hour posting history and the strong opinions you've smeared across the board ... which of the old wankers are you?

 

[acronym]

Quote from swingnfade:

Or you could just toss a coin yourself

Anyway it was just an example and the real number doesn't matter because I'm sure we've all made a lot more than 100 trades and base our method on a "millenia" of data rather than just the last 100

The point being that over a series I know what I get, no prediction required

and individual trades are completely random, no prediction there either

Obviously this concept is lost on New Zealanders but I'm sure the rest of the world understands

Gosh darnit, of course ONE coin toss is 50-50.
But over sequences, let alone extended sequences, their clearly not.

Hey, if you know the odds, wonderfull, ill stick with something that looks like a chart.
Damn smarty pants math type people.......

Stoopid probability .......
Im aussie, and yank and canuck, not kiwi, and i dont get your weird logic, i just thought the link was cool, because it demonstrates clearly the value of technical analysis in a supposedly random environment.



You obviously trade options......

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from swingnfade:

What an angry little man you are when proven wrong

Not angry at all - you're not nearly that impressive. Just curious to know what your name was before today - were you as much of a wanker under your previous alias? Are you a wanker under both aliases at once?

You smell a little like Trader28 (etc etc) but he's normally smarter than this. So which wanker are you?

I predict that we'll never know because within a few days you'll sneak off into your hole like all such aliases. Ciao