Predicting is ***Unavoidable***

[Trader666]

Not a good analogy because a one period SMA is simply connecting the dots (data points) and doesn't produce anything resembling a "U." It's more like a bunch of interconnected "Vs" with the data points at the vertices... and there is no line that can be drawn tangent to them.

On 8th graders "getting" time dilation... they will if it's explained with clear, simple pictures and diagrams that demonstrate the salient points.

There you go again with the bragging: "I, amongst others, am all the way to the bank." It's been my observation that in trading, success is inversely proportional to the amount and extent of bragging.

Quote from makosgu:

Again, you calculate, what I see. The letter "U" has a point where the derivative is zero. As you can see, that letter's range is finite as is it's domain. Are you saying there is no point along the letter at which the derivative is zero??? If you can not interpret the calculus aspect of this letter as a function and see where the derivative is zero, who is at fault? The teacher who did not tell you that you can do that? Applying what you know, you can see where the derivative is zero.

And are you certain every kid will "get" time dilation??? I sat in college classes where half the students couldn't grasp it and they were all engineers. Everyone knew how to use the forumla. However, most did not recognize WHEN and HOW to use it. This is the line in the sand between getting it and calculating. So your point about explaining to kids and getting it is precisely the difference. Alot of us explain alot, years its turning out. Some, like myself, "GOT IT". It is unfathomable as to all that is possible. It is a no turning back orientation. What is not a claim is that you DO NOT GET IT! Pages and pages, posts and posts, to get to the very point you make of not having had the knowledge transfer? Who's responsible for not having had the knowledge transfer?

The difference is, I'm using it and you are not. That, mon ami, is not my responsibility. I, amongst others, am
all the way to the bank. We encourage whoever to take whatever they can if anything all the way to the bank. Ultimately, you have done a SUPERB job of representing the other end of this endeavor. Some will succeed others simply cannot. The success rate has been quoted as being 1 in four or 5. There is some poll somewhere that says other wise. Just relax, and wait till the smoke clears, approximately 29 years 357 days to go...

 

[Trader666]

Anyone else see the irony here? LOL!

Quote from jack hershey:

Everyone speaks for themselves.

For you prediction is unavoidable.

 

[makosgu]

Quote from Trader666:
Not a good analogy because a one period SMA is simply connecting the dots (data points) and doesn't produce anything resembling a "U." It's more like a bunch of interconnected "Vs" with the data points at the vertices... and there is no line that can be drawn tangent to them.

Here's an exercise I'm sure everyone has had in grade school. For the purposes of your statement, it is the letter "U". As grade schoolers, we were told to connect the dots. When you connect the dots, you get the CONTINUOUS form of the letter U from the DISCRETE form. The first outline on the bottom left of the pic is the continuous form. The others to the right of the continuous form are the discrete form. Most would not argue that both forms represent the letter U (continuous vs discrete). So let's tie all of this back to trading. Surely, most would agree, that price bars are plotted discretely across your charts. You can remove the horizontal space between every bar to make it look like the continuous form so this is all just a matter of appearance. Sticking to normal convention which is to have space between consecutive bars, when you use indicators, you wind up bridging the discrete price bar plots on your chart. RSI/STOCH/MACD/EMA/SMA/CCI/etc... Because you get hung up on the 1 period SMA, go for the 2 period EMA, this will be curvy and the story will be the same (ie. you would be looking at the current 2 period EMA value of the indicator to evaluate whether to do something).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1395110>

NOW AGAIN, here's what I see that you don't see again because you are calculating. We had to go down this whole long winded trail to iron out just how different you and I are. Believe it or not, things are rearing up to make a SUPER point but we shall see if you will head in that direction. So, in the pic you see the letter V, the one you are making mention of. So what is clear is that at the vertex you have an infinite number of tengents. What is also clear is that the derivative on the left side of the letter V is negative and constant and the derivative on the right side of the letter is positve and constant. NOW AGAIN, here is yet another interesting aspect about seeing vs calculating. So the bottom point of the LETTER V is very special as you described as it is a VERTEX as you mentioned. The VERTEX has different characteristics than any of the points on either side of the vertex. Whereas you see an infinite number of tangents, I see a point where the derivative is CHANGING from NEGATIVE thru ZERO to POSITIVE. You are correct, there are infinite number of tangents at the VERTEX. However, it is the CHANGE that is important MON AMI! One of those INFINITE NUMBER of tangents is there, the ZERO one. That's why we learned them as a special and as such labeled them as vertices. Mon ami, in trading there are vertices and they have different characteristics then points that are not vertices. You cannot exclusively look at PRICE only and see that it is a VERTEX. So here's the SUPER thing you have pointed out within your post. IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT PRICE ALONE, HOW CAN YOU SEE THAT IT IS A VERTEX AS IT IS HAPPENING IN REALTIME??? HOW CAN YOU TELL THAT A VERTEX IS COMING??? So just like in driving, you look elsewhere to see TURNS and VERTICES in the road. Since the ROAD is in front of you and bounds where you are to drive, naturally, it is interesting to make roads for price (ie. channels). Things like VOLUME/DOM/DOM CHARTS/BSIZE-ASIZE RATIOS/INDICATOR DERIVATIVES are all things you can look at that are precursors to showing when you are at a VERTEX... Again, if you cannot see this, that is another difference between you and I. All stuff that can assist in making your backtest curve more favorable.

Quote from Trader666:

On 8th graders "getting" time dilation...

How much time are you going to spend with the eighth grader before you expect them to grasp time dilation? A day, a month, a year, 3 years, 29 years 357 days??? So what is clear is that you claim that nothing has been

Quote from Trader666:

...explained with clear, simple pictures and diagrams that demonstrate the salient points.

That is your OPINION! There are well over 2000 thread pages in this forum. If you are claiming that you have gone through all of them and have understood nothing, then you will have to wait until someone else provides yet another slant that perhaps may make things "CLICK" for you. If you haven't sorted through all of the material, then you cannot make such a statement since the 2000 thread pages are rehashes of explaining/interpreting and reexplaining the pdf you posted several pages back.

Quote from Trader666:
There you go again with the bragging: "I, amongst others, am all the way to the bank." It's been my observation that in trading, success is inversely proportional to the amount and extent of bragging.

So mon ami, you would not like any of my friends because where as you see where you aren't, we see where we are and my friends put to light where I can get to. Whereas you laugh at what is being communicated to you and others, we laugh at the the EQ curves that are contrary to what you are laughing at. MON AMI, THIS IS TRADING? If you are not making your way to the bank not matter how small the amount is, then your trading is a liability to you. Traders work at what they don't know. Some work from what they do know. Whatever the case may be, make use of something. If you can't make use of anything? Who's fault is that? Your 8th graders comment implies that this is the job of the teacher. Mon ami, everyday you talk to people. Your brain sorts out the information and makes sense of the material that is being communicated. It took you several years to train you brain when you were a baby to make sense of audible and visual communciation. So goes trading when you are presented with new material. The 8th grader goes home and does his homework. He does sample problems. He may do experiments. Ultimately, the recipient takes credit for either getting it or not getting it. Blaming the source is nonsensical. There are different slants of learning the material. If you still don't get it, it is not the end of the world. This is ET. Everything here is FREE. You can either get something or nothing for FREE.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from makosgu:

Here's an exercise I'm sure everyone has had in grade school. For the purposes of your statement, it is the letter "U". As grade schoolers, we were told to connect the dots. When you connect the dots, you get the CONTINUOUS form of the letter U from the DISCRETE form. ...... EDIT
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1395110>

NOW AGAIN, here's what I see that you don't see again because you are calculating. We had to go down this whole long winded trail

the platitudes presented above, while they sound nice, are untestable and totally irrelevant to the markets. nice try, however. surf

 

[makosgu]

Quote from marketsurfer:

the platitudes presented above, while they sound nice, are untestable and totally irrelevant to the markets. nice try, however. surf

Surf, if you use indicators, would you say that you are connecting dots? If you do use indicators, do you ever generate signals from the slope of your indicator???

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from makosgu:

Surf, if you use indicators, would you say that you are connecting dots? If you do use indicators, do you ever generate signals from the slope of your indicator???

sure. but its an untestable art, not a science. AND its basis is making a prediction first, regardless.

surf

 

[makosgu]

Quote from marketsurfer:

AND its basis is making a prediction first, regardless.

surf

This is how you see things. So we see things differently and that's ok. When I want to know if it is raining out, I periodically look and check whether or not it is raining outside. I can then periodically recheck to see if it is still raining. This is different then relying on the weatherman's forecast from the night before to know when the rain is going to arrive. In one case, you find out as it happens, in the other case, the guess is to when it's going to happen... Forecasting has a lower accuracy probability then reporting the weather as it happens. And as you and I both know, timing can make all the difference in any trade. I just prefer not to guess... The derivative for me is like seeing the clouds roll in. They are precursors. Sometimes the clouds roll through without a single drop. However, what is the case is that you need clouds for it to rain. So cheat by looking for clouds so that you know that the rain is imminent.

 

[nitro]

Quote from makosgu:

This is how you see things. So we see things differently and that's ok. When I want to know if it is raining out, I periodically look and check whether or not it is raining outside. I can then periodically recheck to see if it is still raining. This is different then relying on the weatherman's forecast from the night before to know when the rain is going to arrive. In one case, you find out as it happens, in the other case, the guess is to when it's going to happen... Forecasting has a lower accuracy probability then reporting the weather as it happens. And as you and I both know, timing can make all the difference in any trade. I just prefer not to guess...

Weatherman run their predictions in realtime just like everyone else.

Also, there is a prejudice in your assumption that the value at T, or T-1, or whatever lag, is better predictor than another lag of the value at T + 1. You don't know what the right lag(s) are until you do the research.

There is nothing about "now" that makes it special in all cases, or trading in particular, other than that is what the current supply and demand balance is at.

nitro

 

[makosgu]

Quote from nitro:

Weatherman run their predictions in realtime just like everyone else.

Also, there is a prejudice in your assumption that the value at T, or T-1, or whatever lag, is better predictor than another lag of the value at T + 1. You don't know what the right lag(s) are until you do the research.

There is nothing about "now" that makes it special in all cases, or trading in particular.

nitro

My point nitro is that there are only three types of basic trades. You are either short/long/out of the market. Weatherman do run their predictions in realtime about something that's going to happen in the future. When you look closely at their models, they are based on precursor conditions in other parts of the country (ie. jet stream, air pressure gradients, upper atmosphere disturbances, lower atmosphere disturbances). They usually start with "current conditions". Current being what's happening right now (ie. light rain, 43 degrees, winds out of the NorthWest @ 5-10mph, barometric pressure at 30.12mbars, etc.). I am not biasing data one way or another by using past or future data. With only 3 types of trades, I am simply saying, what is the "current conditions"???. If the current condition is that Price is above my right line Price Point, that to me is, a LONG weather state. If Price is belowmy right trendline Price Piont, that to me is, a SHORT weather state. I am not predicting that, it is a statement, just like when you look out the window and say it is raining outside or it is snowing or it is sunny out. It is because you are describing what you are currently seeing. My reason for this orientation is that I am a firm believer in that no one can tell where the market is going to go with better accuracy then stating what it is doing in the present. To do the latter, requires defining some type of environment that can describe the state. Mine is a line. For some it is an oscillator. We are two camps. I am not arguing this fact. What I am saying is that this is a difference, it is not a one way street...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from makosgu:

This is how you see things. So we see things differently and that's ok. When I want to know if it is raining out, I periodically look and check. So cheat by looking for clouds so that you know that the rain is imminent.

ok, thanks for being civil, i respect it.

the random nature of financial markets, particullarly those subject to outside system shocks render the above analogy mute. does it mean money cant be made, and lots of it? NO.


using your example, take a look at weather contracts. once the rain starts, its too late to profit--- metaphorically, at least. same thing in the market.

regards, surf