Prechter wrong again--this IS a top, and a major one

[deadbroke]

Quote from Landis82:

The worst thing you can do is ignore the primary trend of the market and try and play "Pick the Top".

Certainly, you can look for some sort of a fibonacci retracement as a potential target (such as 61.8% which equals 1229 SPX), but I'd rather use several simple moving averages to tell me whether the market is getting "tired" and due for a correction.

You might want to take a look at the period of 1971 - 1976.
It seems to echo pretty well the period from 2006 to the present.

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re: baron's so-called experienced traders who've gone full circle, who don't look for content on ET, rather they provide it.


>>>> You might want to take a look at the period of 1971 - 1976.
It seems to echo pretty well the period from 2006 to the present. <<<<


Take the Dow monthly chart ....

Jan 1966 to Nov 1982 = 17 years near perfect horizontal consolidation.

Then note that 1974-76 upmove was a clear 3-wave move, therefore requiring a 5-wave C-down to complete the pattern. A 3-waver would have been OK had the low not been taken out, thereby eliminating a triangle.

There is NONE of this in the 2006 to current move as can be seen that the Dow clearly exceeded the 2000 top by a wide margin and that the move up from 2002 to 2007 was not a 3-wave move, rather a 5-waver.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from Landis82:

The worst thing you can do is ignore the primary trend of the market and try and play "Pick the Top".

Agreed re: daily trend. But there are bigger forces at work here.

For example, the monthly trend clearly has 2 major, major trendlines from 1982 busted AND the 2002 closing low was busted in Feb09.

Then try this .... on your monthly Dow, squish the chart, plug in a MACD. Now take a look at 1974 vs 2009.

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as for your, "don't try and play "pick the top" .......

this apathy and lack of balls is an ET disease started and promulgated by Lucrum, a prolific tampon user who has at least a 40% ET following. In fact he said once somewhere that he is nobody to try and pick where the dow is going or not going, bla, bla bla. ....

= = = H E R D member. That is why there is NO = ZERO creativity on ET, all just one giant HERD with at best, internal jostling for position, but ZERO individuality.

have a good one, Sir.

 

[Wallace]

i touch base with the comments at http://yelnick.typepad.com/
today's - 'Bull Market or Bull-oney' seem appropriate

 

[asiaprop]

well, money is made not on the back of creativity but on being in agreement with the market, prices, whatever you want to call it. The up trend we are in is unbroken at the moment, calling tops has lost anyone money over time. Simple as that, dont take it personal, its just business ;-)

Quote from deadbroke:

Agreed re: daily trend. But there are bigger forces at work here.

For example, the monthly trend clearly has 2 major, major trendlines from 1982 busted AND the 2002 closing low was busted in Feb09.

Then try this .... on your monthly Dow, squish the chart, plug in a MACD. Now take a look at 1974 vs 2009.

------------------------------------------

as for your, "don't try and play "pick the top" .......

this apathy and lack of balls is an ET disease started and promulgated by Lucrum, a prolific tampon user who has at least a 40% ET following. In fact he said once somewhere that he is nobody to try and pick where the dow is going or not going, bla, bla bla. ....

= = = H E R D member. That is why there is NO = ZERO creativity on ET, all just one giant HERD with at best, internal jostling for position, but ZERO individuality.

have a good one, Sir.

 

[FanOfFridays]

Quote from deadbroke:
as for your, "don't try and play "pick the top" .......

this apathy and lack of balls is an ET disease started and promulgated by Lucrum

The idea that picking tops is for suckers is pretty standard intelligence. The latest ET teenager to try it is retaildaytrader, who has tried to pick about 6 tops and has had his ass handed to him every time (of course he pretends it didn't happen, but the pesky search function shows it did).

Why do you attribute it to Lucrum, of all people?

 

[clambill]

They've already announced Greece will only get a bailout if they need it. That means the situation could get way worse before they give Greece any money. So, this means before the end of May, 2010, we may see a situation where Greece finally says they need immediate help, not just word they'll get a bailout. I think this could be like the Asian crisis of 1998 all over again except in Europe. And when that happened, it only impacted the markets for several months.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from Free Thinker:

if you cant get beyond calling everything manipulation you will never learn from your mistakes and will not be able to analyze why you were so horribly wrong about the market. we should learn from our mistakes. blaming it on manipulation does not keep you from making the same mistake next time.

Agreed 100%.

And if you were to do a search on the "perma-bear" clown aka S2007S you will find one bearish post after another . . . along with one claim after another of buying inverse ETF's over the last 500 points up in the S&P since March of 2009.

He's a complete amateur that has no clue about how liquidity driven markets don't have to hold a strong correlation with the Economic fundamentals.

It's downright amazing to think that this clown actually thinks that anyone takes him seriously. On another note, he's been a terrific CONTRARY sentiment indicator here on ET.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from retaildaytrader:

No its not. The best thing you can do is play "Pick the Top" and here is my logic in a few examples.

Prechter is not wrong. You are only wrong if you lose money. Prechter does not trade therefore he does not lose any money...he is not wrong. The only person who is wrong is the person who is losing money.

Congratulations.
You win the award for most delusional post of the month, if not year.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from retaildaytrader:

I dont believe Prechter is wrong. He is right in that something is about to happen. Will it happen in a few days or weeks I dont know, but it will happen very shortly.

This might come as a surprise to you, but Prechter has been flat-out WRONG since August 5th of last year . . . that's 8 straight months. That's a FACT.

Anyone that has followed his advice/recommendations since August 5th, 2009 has watched their trading capital get shredded. Remember, he recommended going 200% short, not once, but TWICE and did so without posting any stop-loss levels whatsoever.

You sound like you are fairly new to the markets, and the likes of Robert Prechter. I remember him calling for a new Bull Market back in 1982 when he was a guest on Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week". I also remember his infamous "Lost Decade" between 1993 to 2003 in which he was terribly WRONG.

There have been times that he's been right, and there have also been times that he's been terribly WRONG, and done so for years, not just weeks or months.

Given your posts in this thread, it sounds as though you have no background whatsoever in Elliott Wave Theory.

In fact, not once, have you even eluded to Prechter's current wave count, let alone presented an example of it and how it is that he's been WRONG for the past 8 months, let alone how his past performance is indicative and applicable to his continued bearish call into the future.

You obviously haven't done any homework, or substantive analysis into Elliott Wave Theory as interpreted by Prechter, Glenn Neely, or any other Elliottician.

Thanks for once again providing yet another valuable post to the Trading Forum here on ET.

It's one of the biggest reasons why this website no longer has any members that actually trade for a living, or who are "active" traders.

People like S2007S and his college-kiddie clones have driven them away.

Sad, but true.
And Baron knows it!

 

[Landis82]

Quote from traderNik:

The idea that picking tops is for suckers is pretty standard intelligence. The latest ET teenager to try it is retaildaytrader, who has tried to pick about 6 tops and has had his ass handed to him every time (of course he pretends it didn't happen, but the pesky search function shows it did).

Why do you attribute it to Lucrum, of all people?

Lucrum is a moron.
He spends most of his day in the "Politics and Religion" forum spewing forth all sorts of absurdities. He is not a TRADER. Period.