Prechter wrong again--this IS a top, and a major one
- Thread starter panamaorange
- Start date
This is exactly 2007 all over again. Talk of bears covering shorts sending the market higher sounds like more conspiracy theories placed within this ever rising market. Also talk how it's only going to go higher because an election year makes me laugh as well. The excuses the bulls come up with as to why markets are only going to go straight up from here has become a joke, especially after the indexes are up nearly 100% in one single year. That is all nonsense talk, there are only a handful of bears left in this market. All upside is manipulation.
Take a minute to think where stocks were just 13 months ago, now think why today people are rushing in and buying stocks that are literally up hundreds and even thousands of percent. Most stocks are up over 100%, do you honesty think this market is going another 85-100% higher. Well of course it will, manipulation guarantees any return you want!!!
Take a minute to think where stocks were just 13 months ago, now think why today people are rushing in and buying stocks that are literally up hundreds and even thousands of percent. Most stocks are up over 100%, do you honesty think this market is going another 85-100% higher. Well of course it will, manipulation guarantees any return you want!!!
No its not. The best thing you can do is play "Pick the Top" and here is my logic in a few examples.
Lets say its January 2000. You are very bearish and feel like technology is way overheated. So what do you do? What you should do is sit there on your seat doing nothing day after day until you can see the obvious downtrend. Then...you start shorting.
In the year 2000 example that would have been considerable waiting. In fact, there were a great many people who were bearish in 1998/1999, but the waiting would have been well worth it on the short side once the trend finally broke...
You should not trade against your emotions and when the market goes against your emotions then you should not trade. When the market finally confirms your emotions then you should trade. If you trade against your emotions, then that is a path to self destruction.
It was Jesse Livermore that said the most money he made was by sitting. If he had simply sat out many times during the market then he would have not lost any money...and would have had plenty of money to trade when the market confirmed his analysis.
It was Jim Rogers that said the best money can be made by just placing your cash in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity.
In 2006, I was very bearish, but the market simply was not confirming what I knew to be true. If I had just sat out and waited until the trend turned then I could have made a bunch by shorting the market. I have lost money in the past and each time I lost it was as a result of a lack of discipline and not waiting for what I knew to be true.
Sometimes sitting and waiting takes weeks and months waiting. What gets most people is that they simply cannot sit and wait...they must trade...they must do something from day to day. The market does not favor the individual that puts their time in and works hard, but it favors the opportunist that trades only on occasion.
You can ignore the primary trend just so long as you are sitting it out waiting for your turn to come. Your thesis of ignoring the primary trend only works until it doesnt. Lets say mid-1998. It took ten months for price to trade to right where it is now....and then a month for it trade right back where it was (down) 10 months prior.
Prechter is not wrong. You are only wrong if you lose money. Prechter does not trade therefore he does not lose any money...he is not wrong. The only person who is wrong is the person who is losing money.
Lets say its January 2000. You are very bearish and feel like technology is way overheated. So what do you do? What you should do is sit there on your seat doing nothing day after day until you can see the obvious downtrend. Then...you start shorting.
In the year 2000 example that would have been considerable waiting. In fact, there were a great many people who were bearish in 1998/1999, but the waiting would have been well worth it on the short side once the trend finally broke...
You should not trade against your emotions and when the market goes against your emotions then you should not trade. When the market finally confirms your emotions then you should trade. If you trade against your emotions, then that is a path to self destruction.
It was Jesse Livermore that said the most money he made was by sitting. If he had simply sat out many times during the market then he would have not lost any money...and would have had plenty of money to trade when the market confirmed his analysis.
It was Jim Rogers that said the best money can be made by just placing your cash in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity.
In 2006, I was very bearish, but the market simply was not confirming what I knew to be true. If I had just sat out and waited until the trend turned then I could have made a bunch by shorting the market. I have lost money in the past and each time I lost it was as a result of a lack of discipline and not waiting for what I knew to be true.
Sometimes sitting and waiting takes weeks and months waiting. What gets most people is that they simply cannot sit and wait...they must trade...they must do something from day to day. The market does not favor the individual that puts their time in and works hard, but it favors the opportunist that trades only on occasion.
You can ignore the primary trend just so long as you are sitting it out waiting for your turn to come. Your thesis of ignoring the primary trend only works until it doesnt. Lets say mid-1998. It took ten months for price to trade to right where it is now....and then a month for it trade right back where it was (down) 10 months prior.
Prechter is not wrong. You are only wrong if you lose money. Prechter does not trade therefore he does not lose any money...he is not wrong. The only person who is wrong is the person who is losing money.
if you cant get beyond calling everything manipulation you will never learn from your mistakes and will not be able to analyze why you were so horribly wrong about the market. we should learn from our mistakes. blaming it on manipulation does not keep you from making the same mistake next time.
Markets usually fall out when one least expects it. Usually, in the past, when a market fell it was when everyone seemed jubilant and hopeful. In 2007, did you really expect for this mess to happen the way it did? I was a little bearish and I thought there would be a recession, but never did I ever believe the SPX would go to 666 and Obama would be elected to President. Not in my wildest dreams did I see Bear Stearns or Lehman going under.
Look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64374114427
I dont believe Prechter is wrong. He is right in that something is about to happen. Will it happen in a few days or weeks I dont know, but it will happen very shortly.
There is no use trying to fight it, but there is also no use trying to trade it. Pullbacks usually happpen a lot faster then you think. The trend can change very fast and you wont know it wiping out all of your trading profits or making your losses increase even more.
Look at the above chart. When all the stocks were this high above their 50 day moving averages was it wise to get long the market?
Trade with the trend, but when there is the red sky in the morning then you take the sage old advice of taking warning. Watch the next few weeks carefully, but do not trade it. Also, when there is a pullback it wont happen just like that but there will be a series of pulls and pushes up and down...sideways...you wont know what to do but lose money.
Look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAA50R&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64374114427
I dont believe Prechter is wrong. He is right in that something is about to happen. Will it happen in a few days or weeks I dont know, but it will happen very shortly.
There is no use trying to fight it, but there is also no use trying to trade it. Pullbacks usually happpen a lot faster then you think. The trend can change very fast and you wont know it wiping out all of your trading profits or making your losses increase even more.
Look at the above chart. When all the stocks were this high above their 50 day moving averages was it wise to get long the market?
Trade with the trend, but when there is the red sky in the morning then you take the sage old advice of taking warning. Watch the next few weeks carefully, but do not trade it. Also, when there is a pullback it wont happen just like that but there will be a series of pulls and pushes up and down...sideways...you wont know what to do but lose money.
your post contains so many wrong statements I have a hard time to keep count:
1) why do you sit there doing nothing and just looking to short when the market is in a clear uptrend. Why dont you buy the dips until the market really rolls over?
2) "trade with emotions" , "trade against emotions", bla bla bla. Buddy emotions belong into relationships not trading. Follow price actions and dont include any emotions. Thats why you try to short apple for months now while the stock makes new highs by the day. You have some emotional issues about Apple which has proven wrong. Keep your emotions out of the door.
3) You are right in saying sometimes it takes patience and just sitting and waiting for the right opportunities, then why do you try to pick the top each and every single time just to get stopped out. You contradict yourself!!!
4) Prechter is wrong. He was not right in his calls, so simply, he was wrong on numerous occasions. It does not matter whether he trades or not, neither does it matter whether someone followed his advice or not, he was simply wrong in his calls.
5) Picking tops already has proven you wrong for many weeks now. Look at your old posts and count how few days it took to prove all of your calls wrong. Buddy, nobody every struck it rich by picking tops and bottoms. You dont need to believe me, just do your own homework, run backtests and read up on all the great traders of our times, nobody made their fortune by picking tops or bottoms. Simply NOT A SINGLE PERSON.
1) why do you sit there doing nothing and just looking to short when the market is in a clear uptrend. Why dont you buy the dips until the market really rolls over?
2) "trade with emotions" , "trade against emotions", bla bla bla. Buddy emotions belong into relationships not trading. Follow price actions and dont include any emotions. Thats why you try to short apple for months now while the stock makes new highs by the day. You have some emotional issues about Apple which has proven wrong. Keep your emotions out of the door.
3) You are right in saying sometimes it takes patience and just sitting and waiting for the right opportunities, then why do you try to pick the top each and every single time just to get stopped out. You contradict yourself!!!
4) Prechter is wrong. He was not right in his calls, so simply, he was wrong on numerous occasions. It does not matter whether he trades or not, neither does it matter whether someone followed his advice or not, he was simply wrong in his calls.
5) Picking tops already has proven you wrong for many weeks now. Look at your old posts and count how few days it took to prove all of your calls wrong. Buddy, nobody every struck it rich by picking tops and bottoms. You dont need to believe me, just do your own homework, run backtests and read up on all the great traders of our times, nobody made their fortune by picking tops or bottoms. Simply NOT A SINGLE PERSON.
buddy, do your fuxxing homework at least ONCE, PLEASE. Prechter has not been wrong just for days or weeks, he has been wrong for MONTHS now. And he has also been wrong for months in many previous market cycles. And please try to contradict my statement above rather than making up stories about others not trading and what have you...I simply stated facts that you can easily verify by looking up his past calls and how they panned out.
OK -- I am 5x leveraged long. What is your position? In one post, you mention that the top is here, and in another post, you say that it is better to wait even months for confirmation, and in yet another post, you say that pullbacks happen very fast (is that suggesting that it is better to be early than late?)...
agree fully with your observations. You know, I think he confused himself. After none of his out-of-the-air predictions panned out he tried to shift focus...to where....nobody really knows.
Fact remains that the upside trend remains unbroken. Until a major catalyst surfaces it did and continues to pay to go long dips or remain slightly long biased. I used a little of "play money" a few weeks ago to trade a pullback. I was stopped out at entry in no time. It does not make sense to predict a turning point, the market is completely irrational at this point, nobody knows for how much longer this will go on. So why not being aligned with the market rather than fighting it.
Fact remains that the upside trend remains unbroken. Until a major catalyst surfaces it did and continues to pay to go long dips or remain slightly long biased. I used a little of "play money" a few weeks ago to trade a pullback. I was stopped out at entry in no time. It does not make sense to predict a turning point, the market is completely irrational at this point, nobody knows for how much longer this will go on. So why not being aligned with the market rather than fighting it.
Quote from Landis82:
He initially went 50% short around SPX 1000 after the first week of August. He added another 50% around 1038.
He then called to go 200% short (without a stop-loss) around 1106 SPX in late November. On January 15th of this year, he called again to go 200% short. This time, the SPX was at 1136.
He and his in-house analyst (Steve Hochberg) have been downright horrible and in fact, have been terrific contrary indicators.
He might actually get it "right" at some point, but he's blown up most of his subscribers (and followers) given how many times they have watched their "shorts" get fried during this liquidity driven equity rally.
Feel free to read some of the most die-hard Elliott Wave blogs that border on religious fanaticism (for example, do a search for "Kenny's Technical Analysis" or Daneric's Elliott Wave).
They've (the blogs) have been a great CONTRARY indicator and now their unconditional love for Prechter has been tossed out the window as they are unanimously looking for a minor "B" wave pullback before yet another "C" wave rally to finish off the most recent zig-zag formation since the early February low.
This will have been the 3rd "Zig-Zag" wave pattern since the March 2008 low. It's been one A-B-C-X after another, and quite frankly has cost the Prechter "perma-bears" dearly.
One would have been far better off using simple classical technical analysis ( such as the NYSE A/D line ) and a host of moving averages to identify and confirm the trend. Even a basic 13/34 EMA crossover would have made you a TON of money over the past 12 months and kept you participating in the rally longer than most.
SPX: 1194.37 close
re: "baron's so-called experienced traders who've come full circle and now do not look for content on ET, rather they provide it"
with 8K posts, surely an upper echelon ET-er. .........
do you have ANY actual trades posted at ET that would confirm that you did exactly as you're geniussss-ing in the last para above? And also point me to trades that prove you're still IN Long.
Or are you just armchair hindsight-ing? Surely with these elliotticians as contrary indicators you made yourself a bundle?
Thanks for any proof you provide, Sir.