Prechter wrong again--this IS a top, and a major one
- Thread starter panamaorange
- Start date
yes. last i heard he was 200% short.
Did you even listen to his interview?
Doesn't sound like it.
He said that it is the 3rd best shorting opportunity in the last 10 years. (2000, 2007, and now 2010).
http://wallstreetandmain.com/blog/2...ort-opportunity-the-fast-money-guys-disagree/
He initially went 50% short around SPX 1000 after the first week of August. He added another 50% around 1038.
He then called to go 200% short (without a stop-loss) around 1106 SPX in late November. On January 15th of this year, he called again to go 200% short. This time, the SPX was at 1136.
He and his in-house analyst (Steve Hochberg) have been downright horrible and in fact, have been terrific contrary indicators.
He might actually get it "right" at some point, but he's blown up most of his subscribers (and followers) given how many times they have watched their "shorts" get fried during this liquidity driven equity rally.
Feel free to read some of the most die-hard Elliott Wave blogs that border on religious fanaticism (for example, do a search for "Kenny's Technical Analysis" or Daneric's Elliott Wave).
They've (the blogs) have been a great CONTRARY indicator and now their unconditional love for Prechter has been tossed out the window as they are unanimously looking for a minor "B" wave pullback before yet another "C" wave rally to finish off the most recent zig-zag formation since the early February low.
This will have been the 3rd "Zig-Zag" wave pattern since the March 2008 low. It's been one A-B-C-X after another, and quite frankly has cost the Prechter "perma-bears" dearly.
One would have been far better off using simple classical technical analysis ( such as the NYSE A/D line ) and a host of moving averages to identify and confirm the trend. Even a basic 13/34 EMA crossover would have made you a TON of money over the past 12 months and kept you participating in the rally longer than most.
SPX: 1194.37 close
The worst thing you can do is ignore the primary trend of the market and try and play "Pick the Top".
Certainly, you can look for some sort of a fibonacci retracement as a potential target (such as 61.8% which equals 1229 SPX), but I'd rather use several simple moving averages to tell me whether the market is getting "tired" and due for a correction.
You might want to take a look at the period of 1971 - 1976.
It seems to echo pretty well the period from 2006 to the present.
I was bullish on swings since December.
But, i realized that russian bombing would force Putin to back sanctions. And that means oil IS headed to 50-60$ again. There is no way around it. Only way israel could have hit Iran was if Putin rejected sanctions!!!
JPM and GS bought SPX futures in the pits all week, Greece got a bailout agreement, and we couldnât make more than a 40 point advance.
The $TLT (Bonds) and $FXY (yen) have begun their squeezes.the $UUP (dollar) held monday lows, and $VXX is holding quad 60 min bottom.
The Nasdaq trin and Vix have officially gone âinto a race race to zero. So, i now expect the QQQQ to drop faster than the dow on the way down.
But, i realized that russian bombing would force Putin to back sanctions. And that means oil IS headed to 50-60$ again. There is no way around it. Only way israel could have hit Iran was if Putin rejected sanctions!!!
JPM and GS bought SPX futures in the pits all week, Greece got a bailout agreement, and we couldnât make more than a 40 point advance.
The $TLT (Bonds) and $FXY (yen) have begun their squeezes.the $UUP (dollar) held monday lows, and $VXX is holding quad 60 min bottom.
The Nasdaq trin and Vix have officially gone âinto a race race to zero. So, i now expect the QQQQ to drop faster than the dow on the way down.