Quote from Runningbear:
Shortie,
Tommorrow in the first day of the month, which statistically speaking should be an up day.
I have a theory that if the first day of the month is down, the second day of the month is also down. And this pattern is an indicator of immediate market weakness.
Are you able to tell us how the second day of the month performs when the first day is down?
Runningbear
That does work remarkably well in bull phases. As do positive options expirations (at least over the past 7-8 years).
It should be noted that the May top occurred on the first of the month on a significant gap and it's been steady selling ever since. The indicies are pretty much masking the retracements seen in alot of the bellweather names, many of which topped out several months ago. There's no doubt, in my mind, that the market's shallow pullback is mainly due to the fact that nobody believes Bernanke won't unleash QE3 if things get materially worse (or just if enough time has passed). It's despicable, but this is the reality of 21st century finance.