Poll: Sell in May 2011?

Sell in May 2011 and Go Fishing?

  • LONG

    Votes: 32 34.8%
  • FLAT

    Votes: 25 27.2%
  • SHORT

    Votes: 35 38.0%

  • Total voters
    92
Quote from Runningbear:

Shortie,

Tommorrow in the first day of the month, which statistically speaking should be an up day.

I have a theory that if the first day of the month is down, the second day of the month is also down. And this pattern is an indicator of immediate market weakness.

Are you able to tell us how the second day of the month performs when the first day is down?

Runningbear

That does work remarkably well in bull phases. As do positive options expirations (at least over the past 7-8 years).

It should be noted that the May top occurred on the first of the month on a significant gap and it's been steady selling ever since. The indicies are pretty much masking the retracements seen in alot of the bellweather names, many of which topped out several months ago. There's no doubt, in my mind, that the market's shallow pullback is mainly due to the fact that nobody believes Bernanke won't unleash QE3 if things get materially worse (or just if enough time has passed). It's despicable, but this is the reality of 21st century finance.
 
If Bernanke unleashes QE3 after saying he wouldn't, the market will know that rampant inflation is inevitable, QE4 and 5 are a reality and we will see prices spike hard.
 
"The markets" are not a person have no opinion. People trading it may, and there is certainly nothing despicable about that.
 
Nice prop for the drop. Run it up overnight. Hit the shortstops twice. Uptrend for now but New Highs? Will June break the high of May?

Peace out.
 
Quote from Lojanica:

Nice prop for the drop. Run it up overnight. Hit the shortstops twice. Uptrend for now but New Highs? Will June break the high of May?

Peace out.

How's that for a prop and drop. Selling into any strength. Who's buying? .gov? Pension money flows end of month?

The market shows a lot of crosscurrents. Choppy and volatile. Trade accordingly....


Peace out.
 
could somebody explain why the two types of large red days happen:
1. like today - steady sell-off without bounces (closes ~LOD)
2. sell-off with sharp bounces (closes ~ LOD)

could the kind of sell-off be anticipated earlier in the day?
 
Quote from shortie:

could somebody explain why the two types of large red days happen:
1. like today - steady sell-off without bounces (closes ~LOD)
2. sell-off with sharp bounces (closes ~ LOD)

could the kind of sell-off be anticipated earlier in the day?

Big program selling day. Sell into the close trapping any buyers. Low risk if the environment is ripe.
 
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