Bingo. Sell-off into close. Now what? We're sitting on "Support." If we break then 1300 to 1295 for a bounce. 1250 is major support. Some are calling for a collapse after QE2 ends on June 30th. This is a prelude, that is people are figuring out the new paradigm is to sell into strength not buy into weakness.
Poll: Sell in May 2011?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Bingo. Sell-off into close. Now what? We're sitting on "Support." If we break then 1300 to 1295 for a bounce. 1250 is major support. Some are calling for a collapse after QE2 ends on June 30th. This is a prelude, that is people are figuring out the new paradigm is to sell into strength not buy into weakness.
Well here is my guess.
Hedge funds were unwinding huge positions using programmed selling. On the opposite side domestic equity funds were buying into all of the selling because they had a net inflow from investors last month they were putting to use this week. The net result was an orderly selloff.
If hedge funds and the domestic equity funds were both unwinding huge positions using programmed selling with no major buyers then sharp short bounces would have occurred at technical support levels.
Hedge funds were unwinding huge positions using programmed selling. On the opposite side domestic equity funds were buying into all of the selling because they had a net inflow from investors last month they were putting to use this week. The net result was an orderly selloff.
If hedge funds and the domestic equity funds were both unwinding huge positions using programmed selling with no major buyers then sharp short bounces would have occurred at technical support levels.
We'll see how it opens on Sunday night but it looks like we're ready for a bounce here. I do not think we go crashing toward 1250 just yet. Sitting on the terra firma of 1295-1300. There's wobble at these bigger support levels as equities reverberate and arb between cash, etf's, futures and options. All we need is a day where the money flows are low enough where "the floor" takes control and we'll bounce for a while until we get enough steam to test 1250. Pick-up 10 or 20 pts here on a retrace without too much risk if you're not too swarthy. If swarthy then you'd had already been long into the weekend.....
Funny but today the media made the same comment "Oversold Rally" until Bernanke spoke then back to the usual selling. From his speech hint---read between the lines---hint----"No way in hell we're gonna let this market meltdown even if that means wholesale annihilation of the dollar."
I think they figure the EURO will go under before the dollar so the dollar will remain the World's Reserve Currency. Several issues the IMF and DSK--now in jail and exiled from European Central Bankers rooms at least during daylight hours and not without a disguise-- do not have the money to float a "World Reserve Currency." Japan is illuminated at night from space and no one wants their currency to glow in the dark besides the YEN as reserve currency de facto, no way. China, well yes, there is China but the rest of the non-chinese speaking world is gonna not let that happen and besides there is no transparency as well as enough time as "world leader."
So print until we puke and as BB says we rally this Fall........
Now that was one puny, bounce. Almost a non-bounce. BB spoke and now we choke. It looks like we do go to 1250. Now for the short-time highly leveraged it is always a question of timing isn't it? I am out of fresh clues and am going on vacation for a month but today's close looked freakin' weak.
Position FLAT.
Even closed my EURO Long.
My money sits........
OK So Yeah the close was weak and we continued to sell-off but I have a new clue but then I am leaving and I'm not gonna have a computer so....
One of my proprietary summation indicators is ringing. VERY OVERSOLD. But I do not see anyway in hell we aren't gonna test 1255-1260 level. I would expect a bounce soon as selling has steadily increased for 2 months now and we're starting to diverge here to the long side. Shorts be warned.
Have a great June
Last Post for June...I swear... I love trading I guess good thing I'm not gonna have a computer.
Another clue just in.....
First off, nice signal on the summation indicator, eh?
Reverse head and shoulders likely to form at this level although the low is not in just yet. 4 th of July weekend timewise is gonna be about the low with a breakout to the upside Sept. 1.
Sorry to hijack your thread shortie.
An answer to those that say technical analysis and price action doesn't work:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ESU11&t=BAR&size=L&v=2&g=1&p=D&d=X&qb=1&style=technical
Admittedly too much commentary but PA and TA helps me. This is as close to "proof" as I can give.
06-09-11 02:05 AM
Quote from Lojanica:
I am out of fresh clues and am going on vacation for a month but today's close looked freakin' weak.
My money sits........
OK So Yeah the close was weak and we continued to sell-off but I have a new clue but then I am leaving and I'm not gonna have a computer so....
One of my proprietary summation indicators is ringing. VERY OVERSOLD. But I do not see anyway in hell we aren't gonna test 1255-1260 level. I would expect a bounce soon as selling has steadily increased for 2 months now and we're starting to diverge here to the long side. Shorts be warned.
Have a great June
07-08-11 02:09 PM
Quote from Lojanica:
That sound you hear is juice being squeezed!!!
So far the predictions from price action have been good. Spike and channel to 1360, then a small pullback. I do not foresee a big turnaround because the momentum is astounding.
So much for 1360. We came close though....
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http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ESU11&t=BAR&size=L&v=2&g=1&p=D&d=X&qb=1&style=technical
Admittedly too much commentary but PA and TA helps me. This is as close to "proof" as I can give.
06-09-11 02:05 AM
Quote from Lojanica:
I am out of fresh clues and am going on vacation for a month but today's close looked freakin' weak.
My money sits........
OK So Yeah the close was weak and we continued to sell-off but I have a new clue but then I am leaving and I'm not gonna have a computer so....
One of my proprietary summation indicators is ringing. VERY OVERSOLD. But I do not see anyway in hell we aren't gonna test 1255-1260 level. I would expect a bounce soon as selling has steadily increased for 2 months now and we're starting to diverge here to the long side. Shorts be warned.
Have a great June
07-08-11 02:09 PM
Quote from Lojanica:
That sound you hear is juice being squeezed!!!
So far the predictions from price action have been good. Spike and channel to 1360, then a small pullback. I do not foresee a big turnaround because the momentum is astounding.
So much for 1360. We came close though....
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