Oops Trades

Well, thursdays trades were good ones:

stocks I discussed all day:

MGG was a 30 minute play and gained 4.22% and closed near its high

STE was a similar 30 minute play and gained 3.01% but finished off its high, however it traded right up to its 200sma5 which also was close to a pivot line.

APOL was a 30 minute play and gained 3.12% and closed near its high.

FHCC never triggered over its 5 minute high

LPNT was a 4.66% gainer over its 30 minute high and closed near its high.

APCC was a "gap & rise setup" which is triggered at the prior day's low. It happened really quick and probably needed a buy stop type order. It turned out to be the big winner of the day 7.52% but closed off its highs. It moved quickly to a pivot line and a "round-number" resistance at 15 where it rested for a while before halting at 1:00pm at the 15.5 "round number".

stocks I mentioned at the open:

MUSE short shows as having triggered but I felt it was a bad tick.

DAL - mentioned but gapped up at the open, a scenario I am not best at trading. Brandon specializes in these and gave us HUM for a real nice gain reported as 7% but more realistically in the 4-5% range. it moved real fast at the highs

S - mentioned but it gained a quick 1.2% then fell back quickly

GENZ - mentioned . turned out to be an interesting study. it turned out to be a 3.8% gain however it demonstrates the power of both the 200sma5 and 200sma15. the latter stopped it dead in its tracks and should always be used as a play ending accomplishment.

PSUN eventually made 3.3% but was stalled by a pivot line after a sharp advance. keen traders could have re-entered this one over the nice 3 bar pullback that followed the quick gain.

have a great holiday.
I'll be back sunday night to discuss the setups for monday. Hint: they mostly all look like shorts...

Jeff@tradingfrommainstreet.com
 
As on most nights before a trading day I scan the sectors to see what the general market looks like.

http://pages.prodigy.net/jsemmel/TRADINGSCANS_stocklist90_for_42103.html

Technology is interesting stocks://http://www.tradingscans.com/charts/42103/Indexes_medium_gif/$CTN.gif
have advanced nicely to an area of resistance with many of the associated stocks showing short setups. You can determine the short setups by the red subscripted type next to the symbol name. The symbols are sorted by average volume with the highest volume stocks first. Each symbol name is a link to a printable page with more information about the stock.

I will be watching the high volume technology stocks to see what they due right after the close. If they show weakness after 5 minutes or so I'll be concentrating on the ones with oops setups for shorts.

I never like the day after a large number of triggered and successful oops longs; turning into shorts. There is a lot of momentum there which may take the better part of the morning to sort out.

cant say I see much else in the other sectors.

Indexes:

One thing that stands out to me is the 20 period simple moving averages on the daily charts are trending up, but they are leveling off. This is not the best for going long yet. we would like to se another couple of up days in the markets followed by a controlled pullback to the 20smaD for the next move long.

HOLDRs:
SMH the semiconductor spyder will be worth watching early for those potential tech shorts.

OOPS preferred shorts:
BRCM is interesting due to climactic volume
OMG way over extended
LSCC interesting because of the volume

OOPS longs:
LVLT has pulled back to support

OOPS shorts:
NTAP looks to be ready for a small pullback
WEBM resistance here
ATYT needs a pullback here
DOV fascinates me
OMG needs a pullback

SWING BUY:
ACL good setup right into the "preferred buy zone"

SWING SHORT:
CYMI near resistance and in the "preferred shortsell zone"
IRF cant get past the 20smaD
HPT lots of resistance here

BOLLINGER SHORT: note I dont usually follow these setups but look at:
JBHT may be screaming out for a short if the intraday produces a setup


well, thats about it for now. I'll be looking at news and other things to try to cut this list down a little.

I'll report near the open.

and thanks for all the nice e-mails I've been receiving about my little website, www.tradingscans.com


jeff@tradingfrommainstreet.com
 
Good Morning,

some of the oops shorts are gapping up and I'm adding them to the watch list:

AMD
XMSR
WMB
CY

removing:
LVLT long
 
kinda slow this morning

[09:32] <JeffS> stalking XMSR short
[09:40] <JeffS> stalking AMD below yest hi
[09:41] <JeffS> cancel XMSR for now
[10:14] <JeffS> WEBM triggered short, I'm in a little late
[10:31] <JeffS> got my 1% on WEBM covered half
[10:36] <JeffS> LSCC WEBM and NSM shorts from the preferrd list have triggered and made their 1% scalp target MOLX short triggered and is neutral

If you wish to see these alerts in realtime I suggest a trial membership to www.tradingfrommainstreet.com

I post these in the #tradingscans room there

thanks for visiting
 
[10:55] <JeffS> WEBM just made it's 2%
[10:57] <JeffS> NSM 2% gain
[11:50] <JeffS> very quiet today
[11:51] <JeffS> only the WEBM trade
[11:51] <JeffS> sitting at the lows
[11:52] <JeffS> these days after large moves can be really painful
[11:52] <JeffS> trading ranges just churning out profits if you trade too much
[11:53] <JeffS> I just go with the preferred list on days like this
[11:53] <JeffS> too much effort involved in picking from the rest
[12:02] <JeffS> just took my 2% in WEBM short
[13:56] <JeffS> well, I guess I prdicted an uneventful day today
[13:56] <JeffS> and that is what we are having
[13:59] <JeffS> have had lots of triggers in the oops list with about 1/4 having made 2%; 1/4 making 1%; and the rest mostly down a bit with a half dozen stopouts
[13:59] <JeffS> ususally its 1/3, 1/3, 1/3
[14:01] <JeffS> the preferred list has 2 trades making 2% (WEBM, NSM) 1 making 1% (LSCC) and 2 that are down 1.5-2% (MOLX and OMG)
[14:01] <JeffS> markets just doing nothing today
[14:02] <JeffS> If you are new to my style of trading I should explain the significance of the 1% and the 2%
[14:02] <JeffS> I consider an oops trade to have a few parts to it
[14:03] <JeffS> the first part is the "scalp" which has the most money tied up in it
[14:03] <JeffS> I conside a 1% gain as a target for these
[14:03] <JeffS> it usually covers the expense of the trade and seems to happen about 2/3 of the time
[14:03] <JeffS> then I look at a 2% target
[14:04] <JeffS> I usually sell a second part when I achieve 2%
[14:05] <JeffS> If I trade a full lot, I usually keep some around at that point for tha large gains that seem to happen to some of the trades
[14:05] <JeffS> I've seen 10-15% gainers over the next 8 days
[14:05] <JeffS> but this should be done with only a small part of your lot.
[14:06] <JeffS> I also dont go for these gains with laess than a full lot
[14:06] <JeffS> I call 1% and 2% my "happy" numbers
[14:06] <JeffS> by that I mean you should be happy when you achieve them
[14:06] <JeffS> part of my psychological approach
[14:07] <JeffS> for example if you achieve a 1% scalp and then get stopped out breakeven or a little ahead or behind you should be happy because you were able to trade and give yourself a chance
[14:08] <JeffS> If you earn 2% then you should be definitely ahead and have the chance to get a good return on your time
[14:15] <JeffS> I set my stops similarly for scalps, but many times take the full amount off at the scalp stop
[14:15] <JeffS> these oops plays are typically morning plays and should move fairly quick
[14:16] <JeffS> besides 1% losses are not hard to take as are 2% or more
[14:17] <JeffS> many times if the stop is greater than 2% I'll just pass on the trade or use a smaller lotsize
[14:17] <JeffS> There are times when I use less than a full lotsize I will look for 2% gain vs 1% stop for a 2:1 RRR.

I dont see much happening here so I will turn my attention to programming
 
[16:31] <JeffS> tomorrow looks like a more manageable list of oops setups. 7 long 15 short
[16:32] <JeffS> 1010 bars biased to the short side 46-4
[16:32] <JeffS> 7 swing long setups 15 short
[18:22] <JeffS> www.tradingscans.com is ready
[18:22] <JeffS> looking at the sector charts now
[18:23] <JeffS> looks like technology shorts will be the order of the day tomorrow for oops trading
[18:24] <JeffS> semiconductors
[18:26] <JeffS> WMB short is the only preferred setup for tomorrow, its a bit extended
[18:28] <JeffS> SINA short extended
[18:30] <JeffS> PD short interesting on volume
[18:31] <JeffS> NKE interesting swing possibility
[18:32] <JeffS> SANG swing interesting
[18:32] <JeffS> ACL swing interesting
[18:44] <JeffS> BRKS swing short interesting
[18:44] <JeffS> see you all tomorrow
 
[08:43] <JeffS> good morning
[08:44] <member> gm, first day, trying to figure things out
[08:52] <JeffS> it takes a while, dont get discouraged
[08:53] <JeffS> have you read the education material on oops trading?
[08:53] <member> y, great
[08:54] <JeffS> today should be a little slow at the open
[08:54] <JeffS> will give you some time to look around
[08:55] <member> your scans best I've seen, and I've been trading looooong time
[08:55] <JeffS> I'm adding CTXS to my long oops list because it is gapping down a little
[08:55] <JeffS> thanks
[08:55] <member> trying to figure out which windows to have open still
[08:55] <JeffS> I began programming those scans in 1998
[08:56] <JeffS> I transfer the charts I like to RealTick market minder windows
[08:56] <JeffS> I open the gap window early, even though it is "not found"
[08:57] <JeffS> then I keep "refreshing it"
[08:57] <member> these days, best trades often that kind though I generally just watch a core group, expanding to futures and your goodies
[08:58] <JeffS> do you use realtick?
[08:58] <member> still learning after 30+ years
[08:58] <JeffS> me too, been programming >30
[08:58] <member> I have RT but has been a pain of late
[08:58] <JeffS> trading stocks since 1997
[08:59] <member> I use esig for charts
[08:59] <JeffS> yes, RT been a bit shaky
[08:59] <JeffS> have you noticed that I provide "SLF." files in tradingscans for realtick users?
[09:00] <JeffS> these make it easy to load a symbol list into a realtick marketminder window
[09:00] <member> I did, have to figure out how to do it
[09:01] <member> I'm a computer nitwit
[09:01] <JeffS> simple:
[09:01] <JeffS> right click the link and click the "save as"
[09:01] <JeffS> then point to c:\tal\parm\
[09:02] <JeffS> then right click a market minder window
[09:02] <member> writing furiously
[09:02] <JeffS> and point to "load symbols"
[09:02] <JeffS> we have transcripts here
[09:03] <JeffS> http://chatsites.securewebs.com:8044/Rooms/transcript.htm?room=tradingscans
[09:03] <member> Im going to master your stuff, but I am dangerous around this stuff
[09:03] <JeffS> then click on the slf file you just loaded
[09:04] <JeffS> and the symbols are moved into the marketminder
[09:04] <JeffS> and that list is "remembered"
[09:04] <JeffS> so you can do it again and again
[09:05] <member> ok, Ill probably ask again a million times
[09:05] <JeffS> that is handy especially when you use the intraday scans (like %gainers)
[09:05] <JeffS> I reload the minder list many times during the day
[09:06] <JeffS> it also is handy because it loads the symbols in avg volume order
[09:06] <JeffS> or %gain order for intraday scans
[09:07] <JeffS> makes for more informed scanning
[09:07] <member> my RT charts are so slow at times, I tend to just put stocks of interest in esi
[09:07] <JeffS> easier and quicker IMHO ;-)
[09:07] <member> agree
[09:08] <JeffS> I use RT "favorites" for all the scans and call them up when I need them
[09:09] <member> cant trade today with account changes being made to include futures, so I'm going to be working on getting this all set
[09:09] <JeffS> link all minders to my active marketmaker level 2 / chart setup
[09:10] <member> I had everything linked but RT messing me up with its problems
[09:10] <JeffS> I suggest you read the section on "analysis project" and the links I give there
[09:11] <JeffS> that is where I'm researching the results of the oops setups
[09:11] <JeffS> my intent is to show all the oops setups and results over the last 6 months or so
[09:11] <member> Im going to become an expert at your goodies, think they're really good, so be patient with me if I bug you
[09:11] <JeffS> all in chart format
[09:12] <JeffS> to make it easy to visualize
[09:13] <member> I looked it over, love to hunt around for surrenders, think they offer great ops
[09:13] <JeffS> and get accurate statistics on success/failure rates for the various combinations of entries and exits
[09:14] <JeffS> I'm not sure if they were the best for years but too many people playing them now
[09:14] <JeffS> much harder to get filled
[09:15] <JeffS> I'm thinking the 30 minute entry points are more profitable lately
[09:15] <JeffS> cant prove it yet
[09:15] <member> things keep changing, mkt kinda tricky now I think, just have to adapt
[09:15] <JeffS> but furiously working on the programming necessary to prove it
 
[15:15] <JeffS> what a day today
[15:15] <JeffS> had to move the entire system
[15:15] <JeffS> from one server host to another
[15:15] <JeffS> the trades panned out ok though
[15:15] <JeffS> from the oops list
[15:16] <JeffS> NWAC long over 30 minute hi 4% gain
[15:16] <JeffS> THC over 5 minute high 3.7%
[15:17] <JeffS> SINA short under yesterdays high 3.3% (I couldn't get filled though)
[15:17] <JeffS> SDS long over 30 minute high 3% gain
[15:18] <JeffS> CTXS over yesterday's low 2%
[15:18] <JeffS> TIF over 30 minute high 1.8%
[15:19] <JeffS> 4 other shorts - 2 stopped out and 2 are neutral
[15:19] <JeffS> thats all that triggered
[15:19] <JeffS> if any of you have bookmarked tradingscans.com at the prodigy address it no longer works
[15:19] <JeffS> use www.tradingscans.com
[15:19] <JeffS> or
[15:19] <JeffS> http://home.cfl.rr.com/tradingscans/index.html
 
[15:19] <JeffS> if any of you have bookmarked tradingscans.com at the prodigy address it no longer works
[15:19] <JeffS> use www.tradingscans.com
[15:19] <JeffS> or
[15:19] <JeffS> http://home.cfl.rr.com/tradingscans/index.html
[15:20] <terryg> pretty good for the day
[15:34] <JeffS> NWAC now 5%
[15:36] <terryg> trying to make me feel bad cuz I couldn't trade today?
[15:36] <JeffS> no, trying to make ME feel bad because I couldn't trade today :-)
[15:37] <terryg> both crying, always another day though
[16:28] <JeffS> here comes my market take for tomorrow:
[16:28] <JeffS> of the 2728 stocks I look at 850 currently qualify for further nightly analysis
[16:30] <JeffS> 330 closed near their high of the day, 12 near their low
[16:31] <JeffS> 505 above their 200smaD 279 below
[16:32] <JeffS> 299 rising 200smaD 551 falling
[16:32] <JeffS> 383 above rising 50smaD
[16:33] <JeffS> 453 above average volume 365 below and 30 with climactic volume
[16:39] <JeffS> 72 stocks closed above their bollinger high envelope - this may be significant oversold condition
[16:40] <JeffS> 725 stocks had an up day 121 down
[16:40] <JeffS> 723 had green candlestick bar 65 red 58 NRB/doji
[16:41] <JeffS> 31 NR7 bars
[16:41] <JeffS> 2 oops setups long 79 shorts
[16:42] <JeffS> 1010 setups 65-0 showing overbought
[16:43] <JeffS> 8 swing setups long 11 short
[17:18] <JeffS> Ok folks, www.tradingscans.com is ready. I'll be back in a short while to discuss some of the setups
 
[18:00] <JeffS> I always look at the sectors first.
[18:01] <JeffS> still looking like most of the tech sectors are in need of a rest via a pullback
[18:02] <JeffS> one of the good things about the oops setups is their requirement to make a move prior to our acting.
[18:03] <JeffS> this is either in the form of a "novice gap" in the direction of the current short term trend, or a definite move towards a 30 minute low (in the case of shorts)
[18:04] <JeffS> this kept us out of most of the technology short setups today
[18:04] <JeffS> the more this happens, the better the move on the day it does reverse.
[18:06] <JeffS> we just keep waiting for the correct day to strike, which may happen in the next day or 2.
[18:06] <JeffS> with this in mind I will look at the nasdaq shorts first:
[18:07] <JeffS> in this market I'm looking for multiple green bars
[18:09] <JeffS> AMAT, NVLS, CMCSA, BRCD, LLTC, MLNM, SNDK, UTSI, RIMM, PETM, TTWO,
[18:09] <JeffS> all look ready
[18:10] <JeffS> I'll be looking for up gaps in these guys first thing in the morning
[18:12] <JeffS> I rarely short listed stocks but SBL, LLL, BE are on my list
[18:14] <JeffS> I'm still watching LVLT as a swing buy
[18:16] <JeffS> thats pretty much all
[18:17] <JeffS> forgive me if I advertise a little here:
[18:17] <JeffS> I just did a scan and got a pretty good trading list in 15 minutes.
[18:18] <JeffS> That is the beauty of www.tradingscans.com
[18:18] <JeffS> the speed of looking at charts is why I designed it in the first place.
[18:19] <JeffS> I hope to get it incorporated into www.tradingfrommainstreet soon so that you guys who appreciate this style of scanning can soon help by subscribing
[18:20] <JeffS> end of advertisement: thank you.

stop by at www.tradingfrommainstreet.com
get a free trial to their superb chatroom and look me up in room #tradingscans

jeff@tradingfrommainstreet.com
 
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