Oops Trades

B

Brandonf

Sponsor
I have always thought that a new trader will do best to focus on one or two setups and become an expert in that area. You will get a very good feel for things and profits soon follow. One of my favorite setups, and the one that I first started to profit from, is the Oops. Here are a few educational links about the setup: http://www.tradingscans.com/education/oopsintro.htm
http://www.tradingscans.com/education/oops1.htm
http://www.tradingscans.com/education/results1.htm

Each evening Jeff Semmel uploads a number of scans onto http://www.tradingscans.com , the Oops being one of them. I have asked him to share the best of the setups here with you guys for awhile. I believe that 1) it will show the benefit of a clear focus on one setup and 2) it will introduce you to a valid setup in stocks that you can still make a lot of money with.

Brandon
 
From the education Brandon mentioned, an oops setup is formed by a long bar with short tails. Each night I first look at the overall market via the sector charts.

Many sectors are forming nice swing potential opportunities not seen in several years, havin their 20 and 40 period moving averages rising with the 20 higher than the 40.

Banking, Internet-commerce, utilities, brokers need a day or 2 of selling will set up many good swing opportunities, and possible oops setups if the selling is severe enough.

Then I look at the number of oops long setups vs. oops short setups to get a feel about the next days trading. Tonight there are 81 long setups vs 5 short setups. Initially I'll be looking for long plays tomorrow (buys). I also look at the bollinger band statistics (16-8 in favor of ovesold) and the 1010 statistics (22-14 in favor of oversold). Both of these stats sometimes help, but tonight they are fairly close, but nonetheless are dampening somewhat my buy bias. I then look at swing statistics (4 long 20 short) however there are about twice as many stocks that are in the good buy area vs in the short-sell area - defined as being near or between rising 20 and 40 simple moving areas which indicates longs, and near/between falling 20/40 ma's which indicate shorts.

Every few days I look at the number of stocks above and below their 200 period moving average. today its 371-377 vertually tied. This ratio has been falling nicely. Right now I seriously look at about 850 stocks per night that in my opinion qualify for daytrading.

OOPS trading depends a lot on what happens right at the open. There are 9 things that can happen: flat opening, small gap up/down (less than 2%) medium gap up /down(2-5%) large gap up/down(>5%) and the toe traps (bull trap, and bear trap) where the gap almost completely exceeds the length of the bar.

The education describes how to play each gap situation. I'll post some examples close to the open tomorrow.

for trading near the open I prefer medium and large gaps on those oops setups that are extended and are part of a multiple bar series. These are entered real quick at the open using 5 minute and 2 minute charts for entries and stops. my reporting system uses 5 miute bars to determine results, but many times you need to be quicker to catch gains at the open.

examples of this for tomorrow are AFCI LPNT longs

I do post a gap report several minutes after the open showing all gaps and indicating which ones qualify as oops daytrades.

The other entry strategies involve entering over the high made in the first 30 minutes of trading. many times these work better with setups more resembling swing trade setups (uptrends, near support, near moving averages 20/40)

examples of this for tomorrow are APOL CYTC PSUN AEOS FAST FHCC longs and MUSE short

hope this helps.

Jeff Semmel
www.tradingscans.com
an affiliate of www.tradingfrommainstreet.com
 
This morning I start up RealTick with market minder windows for oops longs/preferred longs, and shorts/preferred shorts.

I have the column layout set with GapOpen as a column. I check this for large potential gaps.

This morning I see in the oops-longs minder LAB and NWAC gapping down and in the oops-shorts minder MDG. I will add these to the stocks I mentioned last night to watch closer at the open.

I'll report back later.

how do you guys get alerted so quickly after I post a message. I notice the activity jumps right after I post a reply here? I'm new to elite-trader.

Jeff
 
here is the log from my discussions in #tradingscans:

04/17/03 06:29:23 <JeffS> transcripts for this room are available at:
04/17/03 06:29:26 <JeffS> http://chatsites.securewebs.com:8044/Rooms/transcript.htm?room=tradingscans
04/17/03 06:30:13 <JeffS> I always look in the #stocks and #emini rooms to get Brandon's take on the early action
04/17/03 06:30:24 <JeffS> he is a master at the open
04/17/03 06:33:01 <JeffS> MUSE short triggered real quick below yesterdays close
04/17/03 06:33:38 <JeffS> APOL long interesting
04/17/03 06:34:09 <JeffS> FHCC interesting
04/17/03 06:34:14 <JeffS> both longs
04/17/03 06:34:45 <JeffS> LPNT interesting but no vol
04/17/03 06:49:56 <JeffS> added TDW from the gap list as a long
04/17/03 06:51:06 <JeffS> APCC triggered a little while ago above yesterday's low and has gained 3%% already
04/17/03 06:51:57 <JeffS> I really need a smart alarm system for days like this with so many setups
04/17/03 06:53:11 <JeffS> most all of the longs are 30 minute setups which is good because on days like today you really want to see what is happening
04/17/03 06:55:02 <JeffS> loaded up my minder of the best %%gainers
04/17/03 06:55:12 <JeffS> scanning the list for flags
04/17/03 06:57:24 <JeffS> not much
04/17/03 06:57:34 <JeffS> scanning the oops long list
04/17/03 06:58:24 <JeffS> APOL interesting
04/17/03 06:59:22 <JeffS> DAL strong
04/17/03 06:59:49 <JeffS> S interesting
04/17/03 07:01:21 <JeffS> MGG near its 30 min hi
04/17/03 07:02:14 <JeffS> MGG over 27 may do it
04/17/03 07:02:50 <JeffS> STE long triggered
04/17/03 07:03:03 <JeffS> light vol though
04/17/03 07:03:39 <JeffS> S triggered
04/17/03 07:04:04 <JeffS> GENZ triggered
04/17/03 07:05:04 <JeffS> I prefer the 30 minute entries to trigger a little after the 10:15 reversal period ends
04/17/03 07:05:11 <JeffS> but I cant prove that yet
04/17/03 07:06:01 <JeffS> APCC still strong base at high
04/17/03 07:06:55 <JeffS> and is in third place on the gainers list
04/17/03 07:07:14 <JeffS> http://pages.prodigy.net/jsemmel/TRADINGSCANS_stocklistm10_for_41703.html
04/17/03 07:10:00 <JeffS> STE has made its 1%% scalp goal
04/17/03 07:10:30 <JeffS> STE from the preferred list
04/17/03 07:12:28 <JeffS> PSUN from my short list doing well
04/17/03 07:13:10 <JeffS> I don't know how B and T can trade and type like this all day
04/17/03 07:13:23 <JeffS> I'm not that good
04/17/03 07:13:31 <JeffS> not trading today
04/17/03 07:13:38 <JeffS> I cant do both
04/17/03 07:13:50 <JeffS> PSUN a winner
04/17/03 07:14:15 <JeffS> 2.34%%
04/17/03 07:15:32 <JeffS> PSUN right near a pivot line right now
04/17/03 07:15:47 <JeffS> 21.87 may be it
04/17/03 07:16:07 <JeffS> dont forget those pivot lines when doing oops trading
04/17/03 07:16:16 <JeffS> they are easily set up in realtick
04/17/03 07:19:45 <JeffS> APOL moving here
04/17/03 07:20:04 <JeffS> b/o above a nice base
04/17/03 07:21:00 <JeffS> MGG from the preferred list trying, but slow
04/17/03 07:21:10 <JeffS> remember the turtle though
04/17/03 07:23:44 <JeffS> S looks like its moving again
04/17/03 07:24:37 <JeffS> lot of the 30 minute entries have triggered
04/17/03 07:27:25 <JeffS> TDW from the gap list looking to fill the gap
04/17/03 07:30:43 <JeffS> APOL was a classic textbook scalp, pulled back here to its entry point
04/17/03 07:30:52 <JeffS> scalping is a true artform
04/17/03 07:31:07 <JeffS> we need to get Brandon to give a class on it
04/17/03 07:32:41 <JeffS> look at PSUN for a reason why pivotlines are important
04/17/03 07:35:33 <JeffS> S made its 1%% scalp target and has pulled back
04/17/03 07:36:06 <JeffS> money management is so very important to these trades
04/17/03 07:36:22 <JeffS> I use 1%% and 2%% as my primary targets
04/17/03 07:36:40 <JeffS> you should not lose money if you make 1%%
04/17/03 07:37:09 <JeffS> you should incrementally sell at that point if you took a full lot or double lot or more
04/17/03 07:37:22 <JeffS> sell either half or a third
04/17/03 07:37:33 <JeffS> depending on your business plan
04/17/03 07:37:41 <JeffS> and set a stop
04/17/03 07:37:59 <JeffS> either at breakeven or at a good point near b/e
04/17/03 07:38:14 <JeffS> depending on the support and resistance lines
04/17/03 07:38:36 <JeffS> when you reach 2%% you should sell more
04/17/03 07:38:57 <JeffS> the rest you should keep for a while
04/17/03 07:39:03 <JeffS> possibly overnight
04/17/03 07:39:10 <JeffS> depending on the daily chart
04/17/03 07:39:29 <JeffS> even if its only 100 shares
04/17/03 07:40:02 <JeffS> I've seen a lot of these guys make 10%% or more over the 8 days after the trigger day
04/17/03 07:40:26 <JeffS> I'm developing a tracking system that will show those type of gains graphically
04/17/03 07:40:39 <JeffS> so that you can become familiar with these setups
04/17/03 07:40:46 <JeffS> and be confident with them
04/17/03 07:40:59 <JeffS> and be able to build a business plan around
04/17/03 07:41:34 <JeffS> MGG just made its 1%%
04/17/03 07:45:14 <JeffS> TDW doing real well. I dont track those gap plays but it appears to be up .80 on a $27 stock which is almost 3%%
04/17/03 07:49:56 <JeffS> APOL the classic 1-2-3 breakout
04/17/03 07:50:08 <JeffS> moving up again
04/17/03 07:50:59 <JeffS> STE moving up again
 
here is an up to date continuation:

[11:02] <JeffS> STE almost made it's 2% being slowed up by 200sma2
[11:03] <JeffS> the 200 period simple moving average on the 2 minute chart
[11:03] <JeffS> APOL HOD doing well
[11:14] <JeffS> MGG doing well 1.44%
[11:14] <JeffS> STE stairstepping its way up
[11:16] <JeffS> APOL now at its 200sma5 should stall here almost 1% gain
[11:16] <JeffS> TDW also almost near 200sma5 and is having trouble at "whole number" resistance
[11:18] <JeffS> APCC now a 4% gainer (but it was hard to get initially)
[11:19] <JeffS> DAL has been strong all day, but I must admit that I have trouble entering stocks long that gap up
[11:20] <JeffS> I need to do a lot more programming to get that scenario correct
[11:20] <JeffS> long weekend ahead, I'll be doing a lot of programming
[11:21] <JeffS> it's hard work and very tedious, but the results of my analysis project are looking very good so far
[11:21] <JeffS> for those of you who arent aware of what I'm doing
[11:21] <JeffS> I've collected data for the last 6 months
[11:22] <JeffS> daily data, 15 minute bars, 5 minute bars and daily charts 5 and 15 minute charts
[11:22] <JeffS> for 2600 stocks
[11:22] <JeffS> takes about 70 gigs storage space
[11:23] <JeffS> from that data (about 130 days) I'm getting all the setups from tradingscans.com
[11:23] <JeffS> on a daily basis
[11:24] <JeffS> using the bars, I'm determining which ones triggered
[11:24] <JeffS> and from that I'm getting statistics on how they did intraday
[11:24] <JeffS> and also how they fared up to 8 days after the trigger day
[11:25] <JeffS> stats on number of 1% gains 2% and more, also stats on how many failures
[11:26] <JeffS> then I take all this stuff and build html pages with all the charts for each setup
[11:26] <JeffS> I'm keeping notes online about my progress
[11:27] <JeffS> at:
[11:27] <JeffS> http://pages.prodigy.net/jsemmel/analysis.htm
[11:27] <JeffS> check back there monday morning to see how I'm doing
[11:27] <JeffS> there are some sample links there
[11:28] <JeffS> over the next few months I'll be reporting here in the chatroom how I'm doing and if I'm revising any of my play techniques based on these results
[11:28] <JeffS> as an aside
[11:29] <JeffS> there is a very nice subgroup here at tradingfrommainstreet headed by "Norsk"
[11:29] <JeffS> called SystemsResearchGroup
[11:30] <JeffS> meets once a week
[11:30] <JeffS> one week for beginners like me
[11:30] <JeffS> and one week for advanced
[11:30] <JeffS> like Norsk
[11:31] <JeffS> tonight the advanced people meet in the #emini room open to all including guests
[11:31] <JeffS> normally we meet in the #tc room, reserved for members only
[11:31] <JeffS> its a really great group designed to help us all become better systems testers
[11:34] <JeffS> APOL still moving 1.3% now, only stalled for 4 5-min bars at the 200sma5 53.30 is the next pivot line for that guy
[11:35] <JeffS> MGG basing here
[11:36] <JeffS> STE 2.3% and at a pivot line and close to 200sma5 - take some off the table
[11:36] <JeffS> TDW similar to STE
[11:38] <JeffS> APCC HOD 4.25% gainer
[11:40] <JeffS> So as you can see (hopefully) oops trading today involved looking at about 20 stocks both from last nights scans and this morning's gap list
[11:41] <JeffS> then cutting the list down to 10 or so at the open
[11:41] <JeffS> which turned into 5 really good trades
[11:42] <JeffS> I hope that I've showed you how my mind works in the morning
[11:42] <JeffS> if I were in these guys today
[11:42] <JeffS> I'de set trailing stops on those good nasdaq stocks
[11:42] <JeffS> about 1% will probably work
[11:43] <JeffS> put hard stops on the nyse guys
[11:43] <JeffS> and since its almost 12:00 here in florida
[11:44] <JeffS> I think I'll go to the pool until about 1:30 when things may start to happen again
 
here is some more:

[11:55] <JeffS> will post the results pages in a few minutes so you can see how they compare to my discussion here
[11:56] <JeffS> ok, the results can be found at:
[11:56] <JeffS> http://pages.prodigy.net/jsemmel/results.html
[11:57] <JeffS> both the preferred list and the full list are there for today so far
[11:57] <JeffS> normally I post these at about 4:05 or so
[11:58] <JeffS> the first thing you'll note is that the full list is huge and has lots of triggered trades
[11:58] <JeffS> and the preferred list is short
[11:58] <JeffS> but I hope that if you followed my notes here
[11:58] <JeffS> you'll see that it is really not that hard to pear these things down
[11:59] <JeffS> there is a link on the results page to a class I gave about how to interpret the results
[12:00] <JeffS> I hope to somedat automate this results gathering program
[12:00] <JeffS> so that it will be more useful for you guys
[12:00] <JeffS> intraday
 
here's my last post for the day:

[14:49] <JeffS> ok, I'm back
[14:50] <JeffS> APCC is today's leader +7.52% at the high
[14:51] <JeffS> MGG made it's 2% and is breaking out here
[14:52] <JeffS> PSUN 2.95% at its high
[14:52] <JeffS> APOL 3% at its high
[14:54] <JeffS> and lots of others are up a lot in the results report
[14:59] <JeffS> dont see much more happening to the close here
[14:59] <JeffS> so I'm gonna call it a day
 
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