Oops Trades
- Thread starter Brandonf
- Start date
Brandon (and all visitors),
You made an interesting point in your post. I thought about it a lot last night. Instead of saying that "if these stocks don't gap up I should go to the beach" you might have rephrased it to say "if the stocks do gap up in the morning, expect to be very busy at the open. That led me to wonder if I hadn't discussed the theory of the oops setup enough, so that everybody realizes exactly why the oops setup is so powerful.
Here goes.
First a question. When stocks like AMAT, NVLS, CMCSA, BRCD, LLTC, MLNM, SNDK, UTSI, RIMM, PETM, TTWO (todays watch list for short opportunities) move up for multiple days without a pullback, showing almost continuous buying, who is making all the money?
You really need to think about that for a while before the answer becomes obvious, so I will digress for a minute. Think for a minute of a used car dealership. How do they make money? OK they buy up used cars from people who want to discard them at almost any price, then they wash and wax them, then they sell them back to other people who need good quality trasnsportation at a reasonable price. The difference in price is where the dealership makes its profits. Simple huh? The dealer gets in a new used car and puts it on the lot for a certain price, maybe a little higher than what he thinks it should sell for. When it doesnt sell right away he reduces the price gradually until he sells it.
Now back to stocks. Who is making all the money when there are a lot of green oops bars? Answer - the market maker companies. Why? They bought the merchandise cheap and are now selling it at a higher price. But they are running out of merchandise (stocks). So to get that last bit of merchandise, they really want the price to be much higher at the open, never mind those people who put in market orders after the close asking for the stocks at whatever price the market makers want to sell it for. That creates the gap up, and our strategy is built around shorting close to the open (below a 5 minute low, or a 2 minute low) when the over-priced stocks should (and usually do) fall to at least fill the gap.
However, even if the stocks don't gap up, the question is really What do the market maker companies want the stock to do price-wise? They want it to come down so that they can replenish their inventories at lower prices. But will that happen? If there are more buyers than sellers it won't. So how do we figure that out? We wait a while (30 minutes or more, in the case of the oops strategy) This waiting confirms that there are more sellers than buyers, and we short then, below the 30 minute low.
Now we get back to the issue of my going to the beach
What do we do if the stocks gap down? We know what to do if the stock gaps up or opens flat. The gap down is the so-called bull-trap. Frankly I don't yet have the answer to this situation. If the gap down is small then there is a tendency to fill the gap. If the gap completely engulfs the green bar, we definitely have a shorting situation because of the panic selling that is sure to happen. Inbetween gaps are the problem.
when this happens, I throw up my hands and announce in the chatroom that I'm going to the beach. In reality I'm actually going to the programming computer and continuing my "analysis study" which is a section on the website devoted to graphically demonstating all examples of these setups and what actually happened.
This analysis work is continuing so stop in occasionally to www.tradingscans.com to see the latest.
You made an interesting point in your post. I thought about it a lot last night. Instead of saying that "if these stocks don't gap up I should go to the beach" you might have rephrased it to say "if the stocks do gap up in the morning, expect to be very busy at the open. That led me to wonder if I hadn't discussed the theory of the oops setup enough, so that everybody realizes exactly why the oops setup is so powerful.
Here goes.
First a question. When stocks like AMAT, NVLS, CMCSA, BRCD, LLTC, MLNM, SNDK, UTSI, RIMM, PETM, TTWO (todays watch list for short opportunities) move up for multiple days without a pullback, showing almost continuous buying, who is making all the money?
You really need to think about that for a while before the answer becomes obvious, so I will digress for a minute. Think for a minute of a used car dealership. How do they make money? OK they buy up used cars from people who want to discard them at almost any price, then they wash and wax them, then they sell them back to other people who need good quality trasnsportation at a reasonable price. The difference in price is where the dealership makes its profits. Simple huh? The dealer gets in a new used car and puts it on the lot for a certain price, maybe a little higher than what he thinks it should sell for. When it doesnt sell right away he reduces the price gradually until he sells it.
Now back to stocks. Who is making all the money when there are a lot of green oops bars? Answer - the market maker companies. Why? They bought the merchandise cheap and are now selling it at a higher price. But they are running out of merchandise (stocks). So to get that last bit of merchandise, they really want the price to be much higher at the open, never mind those people who put in market orders after the close asking for the stocks at whatever price the market makers want to sell it for. That creates the gap up, and our strategy is built around shorting close to the open (below a 5 minute low, or a 2 minute low) when the over-priced stocks should (and usually do) fall to at least fill the gap.
However, even if the stocks don't gap up, the question is really What do the market maker companies want the stock to do price-wise? They want it to come down so that they can replenish their inventories at lower prices. But will that happen? If there are more buyers than sellers it won't. So how do we figure that out? We wait a while (30 minutes or more, in the case of the oops strategy) This waiting confirms that there are more sellers than buyers, and we short then, below the 30 minute low.
Now we get back to the issue of my going to the beach
What do we do if the stocks gap down? We know what to do if the stock gaps up or opens flat. The gap down is the so-called bull-trap. Frankly I don't yet have the answer to this situation. If the gap down is small then there is a tendency to fill the gap. If the gap completely engulfs the green bar, we definitely have a shorting situation because of the panic selling that is sure to happen. Inbetween gaps are the problem.
when this happens, I throw up my hands and announce in the chatroom that I'm going to the beach. In reality I'm actually going to the programming computer and continuing my "analysis study" which is a section on the website devoted to graphically demonstating all examples of these setups and what actually happened.
This analysis work is continuing so stop in occasionally to www.tradingscans.com to see the latest.
Well, today was not quite yet the day for shorting.
I did take some out in AMAT and AOC but minimal
[16:23] <JeffS> here come the nightly statistics
[16:23] <JeffS> 874 stocks today under analysis
[16:24] <JeffS> 410 are at 1 month highs, 13 at 1 month low, 50 at 52 week high 1 at 52 week low
[16:25] <JeffS> 173 stocks at their first pullback from 1 month high 10 from 52 week high
[16:26] <JeffS> this means we should be thinking in terms of flags, pennants, retracements on daily charts for swing trading later this week or going into next week
[16:27] <JeffS> 532 above 200smaD 274 below
[16:28] <JeffS> indicates that we're really not in a great uptrend yet, so if you do swing trading you must revise your expectations
[16:28] <JeffS> 315 rising 200smaD 559 falling
[16:29] <JeffS> thats up from 299/551 yesterday
[16:31] <JeffS> 226 closed near high of day 60 near low - yesterday was 330/12
[16:32] <JeffS> 408 above rising 50smaD yesterday was 383
[16:33] <JeffS> 107 NR7 bars compared to 31 yesterday
[16:34] <JeffS> 89 stocks closed above their bollinger high envelope - this may be a significant overbought condition - yesterday was 72
[16:35] <JeffS> 21 potential double tops
[16:35] <JeffS> 60 oops short setups 6 long
[16:36] <JeffS> 1010 setups 87-2 showing overbought, yesterday was 65-0
[16:37] <JeffS> 7 swing setups long 20 short , yesterday was 8/11
I'll be back later looking at some charts
I did take some out in AMAT and AOC but minimal
[16:23] <JeffS> here come the nightly statistics
[16:23] <JeffS> 874 stocks today under analysis
[16:24] <JeffS> 410 are at 1 month highs, 13 at 1 month low, 50 at 52 week high 1 at 52 week low
[16:25] <JeffS> 173 stocks at their first pullback from 1 month high 10 from 52 week high
[16:26] <JeffS> this means we should be thinking in terms of flags, pennants, retracements on daily charts for swing trading later this week or going into next week
[16:27] <JeffS> 532 above 200smaD 274 below
[16:28] <JeffS> indicates that we're really not in a great uptrend yet, so if you do swing trading you must revise your expectations
[16:28] <JeffS> 315 rising 200smaD 559 falling
[16:29] <JeffS> thats up from 299/551 yesterday
[16:31] <JeffS> 226 closed near high of day 60 near low - yesterday was 330/12
[16:32] <JeffS> 408 above rising 50smaD yesterday was 383
[16:33] <JeffS> 107 NR7 bars compared to 31 yesterday
[16:34] <JeffS> 89 stocks closed above their bollinger high envelope - this may be a significant overbought condition - yesterday was 72
[16:35] <JeffS> 21 potential double tops
[16:35] <JeffS> 60 oops short setups 6 long
[16:36] <JeffS> 1010 setups 87-2 showing overbought, yesterday was 65-0
[16:37] <JeffS> 7 swing setups long 20 short , yesterday was 8/11
I'll be back later looking at some charts
[17:21] <JeffS> www.tradingscans.com is now ready
[17:23] <JeffS> most all sectors have made higher highs
[17:23] <JeffS> the bio's are at resistance
[17:27] <JeffS> OOPS shorts:
[17:27] <JeffS> T what a green bar today
[17:27] <JeffS> MLNM a bio
[17:28] <JeffS> NWAC worked the last time
[17:28] <JeffS> CKFR good volume
[17:28] <JeffS> MCRL at resistance
[17:28] <JeffS> MDCO at resistance
[17:31] <JeffS> ATYT needs a pullback
[17:32] <JeffS> F in desperate need of a pullback, and can you imagine getting rid of that neat Thunderbird
[17:33] <JeffS> AWE near resistance
[17:33] <JeffS> BMY too far too fast
[17:34] <JeffS> CVC needs a small pullback
[17:34] <JeffS> BE needs a pullback
[17:23] <JeffS> most all sectors have made higher highs
[17:23] <JeffS> the bio's are at resistance
[17:27] <JeffS> OOPS shorts:
[17:27] <JeffS> T what a green bar today
[17:27] <JeffS> MLNM a bio
[17:28] <JeffS> NWAC worked the last time
[17:28] <JeffS> CKFR good volume
[17:28] <JeffS> MCRL at resistance
[17:28] <JeffS> MDCO at resistance
[17:31] <JeffS> ATYT needs a pullback
[17:32] <JeffS> F in desperate need of a pullback, and can you imagine getting rid of that neat Thunderbird
[17:33] <JeffS> AWE near resistance
[17:33] <JeffS> BMY too far too fast
[17:34] <JeffS> CVC needs a small pullback
[17:34] <JeffS> BE needs a pullback
Well I see that there are still a few people reading this thread, so I will continue for a little while longer.
Yesterday's results were good:
fome the preferred list:
TMPW short made a 3.24% gain before falling back to neutral
CKFR short made 2.44% right at the open and closed weak and is indicating another weak opening today. I'll admit it was a tough short to get off below yesterday's high
NWAC short made 1.33%
no other preferred short triggered
from the other list:
the significant play was DRIV which was a "bear trap at the open" which gained a "homerun" 12% gain. This trade was given out in the TFMS chatroom by ivica.
slightly better than half the other plays gained 1% or better, mostly shorts.
today the markets are indicating down.
my watch list for today is:
OOPS longs: ASKJ, CVD, AU, OVER, AMD, NEM, ATYT
Swing longs: ERJ,MVL, PFCB, WEN
OOPS shorts: GENZ, VRTS
Swing Shorts: ACN
from the watch list posted 4/23 for trading yesterday(all shorts):
T did not trigger
MLNM did not trigger
NWAC 1% scalp
CKFR 2.44% gain but difficult short
MCRL fell but did not trigger
MDCO did not trigger
ATYT 4.32% gain below 30 minute low
F 1.72% scalp gain below 30 minute low but retraced back
AWE 2.35% gain and fell even more at the close
BMY lost 1%
CVC gained 2%
BE neutral
not a bad day all in all
Yesterday's results were good:
fome the preferred list:
TMPW short made a 3.24% gain before falling back to neutral
CKFR short made 2.44% right at the open and closed weak and is indicating another weak opening today. I'll admit it was a tough short to get off below yesterday's high
NWAC short made 1.33%
no other preferred short triggered
from the other list:
the significant play was DRIV which was a "bear trap at the open" which gained a "homerun" 12% gain. This trade was given out in the TFMS chatroom by ivica.
slightly better than half the other plays gained 1% or better, mostly shorts.
today the markets are indicating down.
my watch list for today is:
OOPS longs: ASKJ, CVD, AU, OVER, AMD, NEM, ATYT
Swing longs: ERJ,MVL, PFCB, WEN
OOPS shorts: GENZ, VRTS
Swing Shorts: ACN
from the watch list posted 4/23 for trading yesterday(all shorts):
T did not trigger
MLNM did not trigger
NWAC 1% scalp
CKFR 2.44% gain but difficult short
MCRL fell but did not trigger
MDCO did not trigger
ATYT 4.32% gain below 30 minute low
F 1.72% scalp gain below 30 minute low but retraced back
AWE 2.35% gain and fell even more at the close
BMY lost 1%
CVC gained 2%
BE neutral
not a bad day all in all
[09:39] <JeffS> got the quick ASKJ scalp
[09:48] <JeffS> that was a fast one
[09:49] <JeffS> 3.36% gain if you played it right
[09:49] <JeffS> I was a penny off the entry and a nickel off the high
[09:51] <JeffS> GENZ short triggered as well under yest high
[09:51] <JeffS> trading off 1% right now
[09:51] <JeffS> those pharmacuticles can go really fast
[09:52] <JeffS> at least they used to in the heydays
[09:52] <JeffS> I tried hard to avoid them
[09:52] <JeffS> I'm not a real high risk taker
[09:52] <JeffS> ASKJ back at the highs
[09:52] <JeffS> 8 is a pivot line
[09:53] <JeffS> lots of resistance there
[09:57] <JeffS> almost all the oops shorts from yesterday tanking today
[09:58] <JeffS> NWAC another 4%
[09:58] <JeffS> CVC 2%
[09:58] <JeffS> F 4%
[09:58] <JeffS> BE 1%
[09:58] <JeffS> ATYT 3%
[09:59] <JeffS> BRCM almost 5%
[09:59] <JeffS> only CKFR neutral and AWE -2%
[09:59] <JeffS> are going the wrong way
[10:01] <JeffS> CVD oops long hanging tough near its highs
[10:01] <JeffS> showing good relative strength
[10:05] <JeffS> ASKJ broke out
[10:09] <JeffS> tried to get some WEN lomg swing
[10:09] <JeffS> kept running ahead of me
[10:10] <JeffS> gonna try to bottom fish AMD here
[10:11] <JeffS> 7.54 1/3 lot
[10:13] <JeffS> I sometimes like to try that, but only at a reversal time
[10:14] <JeffS> 10:15, 10:30
[10:26] <JeffS> dumped it
[10:28] <JeffS> well, I dont do that too often
[10:30] <JeffS> ASKJ a 6.59% gainer right now. I admit I shouldda kept some
[10:32] <JeffS> just picked up some AU
[10:33] <JeffS> oops long over 30 minute high paid a 1/2% premium over the correct entry
[11:02] <JeffS> If today continues like its going down
[11:02] <JeffS> and monday is down too
[11:02] <JeffS> then I'll be looking at swing trades for tuesday
[11:02] <JeffS> fyi
[12:11] <JeffS> dumped the AU, just couldn't stand looking at it any more
[12:11] <JeffS> I'm flat and gonna run some errands during the doldrums
thanks again for trying www.tradingscans.com and the chatroom #tradingscans at www.tradingfrommainstreet.com
Jeff
[09:48] <JeffS> that was a fast one
[09:49] <JeffS> 3.36% gain if you played it right
[09:49] <JeffS> I was a penny off the entry and a nickel off the high
[09:51] <JeffS> GENZ short triggered as well under yest high
[09:51] <JeffS> trading off 1% right now
[09:51] <JeffS> those pharmacuticles can go really fast
[09:52] <JeffS> at least they used to in the heydays
[09:52] <JeffS> I tried hard to avoid them
[09:52] <JeffS> I'm not a real high risk taker
[09:52] <JeffS> ASKJ back at the highs
[09:52] <JeffS> 8 is a pivot line
[09:53] <JeffS> lots of resistance there
[09:57] <JeffS> almost all the oops shorts from yesterday tanking today
[09:58] <JeffS> NWAC another 4%
[09:58] <JeffS> CVC 2%
[09:58] <JeffS> F 4%
[09:58] <JeffS> BE 1%
[09:58] <JeffS> ATYT 3%
[09:59] <JeffS> BRCM almost 5%
[09:59] <JeffS> only CKFR neutral and AWE -2%
[09:59] <JeffS> are going the wrong way
[10:01] <JeffS> CVD oops long hanging tough near its highs
[10:01] <JeffS> showing good relative strength
[10:05] <JeffS> ASKJ broke out
[10:09] <JeffS> tried to get some WEN lomg swing
[10:09] <JeffS> kept running ahead of me
[10:10] <JeffS> gonna try to bottom fish AMD here
[10:11] <JeffS> 7.54 1/3 lot
[10:13] <JeffS> I sometimes like to try that, but only at a reversal time
[10:14] <JeffS> 10:15, 10:30
[10:26] <JeffS> dumped it
[10:28] <JeffS> well, I dont do that too often
[10:30] <JeffS> ASKJ a 6.59% gainer right now. I admit I shouldda kept some
[10:32] <JeffS> just picked up some AU
[10:33] <JeffS> oops long over 30 minute high paid a 1/2% premium over the correct entry
[11:02] <JeffS> If today continues like its going down
[11:02] <JeffS> and monday is down too
[11:02] <JeffS> then I'll be looking at swing trades for tuesday
[11:02] <JeffS> fyi
[12:11] <JeffS> dumped the AU, just couldn't stand looking at it any more
[12:11] <JeffS> I'm flat and gonna run some errands during the doldrums
thanks again for trying www.tradingscans.com and the chatroom #tradingscans at www.tradingfrommainstreet.com
Jeff
[09:30] <JeffS> good morning
[09:57] <JeffS> I'm in MU and SNE
[09:57] <JeffS> long
[10:05] <JeffS> sold half MU 1% gain
[10:06] <member> nice one
[10:07] <JeffS> sold half SNE 1%
[10:20] <JeffS> sold another half SNE at 2% gonna let the rest ride
[10:21] <member> how many halfs do you have?
[10:23] <JeffS> half of a half
[10:23] <JeffS> I'm now down to 1/4 of a lot
[10:23] <JeffS> 200 shares
[10:24] <JeffS> initially bought 800
[10:24] <JeffS> or about $20,000
[10:24] <member> just giving you a hard time
[10:24] <JeffS> lol
[10:24] <JeffS> I find the 20,000 lotsize pretty workable
[10:30] <JeffS> just sold another half MU at 2%
[10:40] <JeffS> MU tanked but with profits booked I can afford to watch it for a while
[10:44] <JeffS> lots triggered over their 30 minute high
[10:48] <bbcc> did u buy MU at the open?
[10:54] <JeffS> MU was over yesterday's low (or more conservatively - yesterday's close)
[10:55] <JeffS> I'm adjusting all the programs to take the more conservative entry
[10:55] <JeffS> it looks better than the other one based on looking at a lot of charts this weekend
[10:55] <JeffS> I did a bunch of programming
[10:55] <JeffS> dont have anything to show yet but its getting closer
[11:12] <JeffS> be back in a short while
[16:05] <JeffS> results posted
[16:05] <JeffS> hard to pick a loser today
[09:57] <JeffS> I'm in MU and SNE
[09:57] <JeffS> long
[10:05] <JeffS> sold half MU 1% gain
[10:06] <member> nice one
[10:07] <JeffS> sold half SNE 1%
[10:20] <JeffS> sold another half SNE at 2% gonna let the rest ride
[10:21] <member> how many halfs do you have?
[10:23] <JeffS> half of a half
[10:23] <JeffS> I'm now down to 1/4 of a lot
[10:23] <JeffS> 200 shares
[10:24] <JeffS> initially bought 800
[10:24] <JeffS> or about $20,000
[10:24] <member> just giving you a hard time
[10:24] <JeffS> lol
[10:24] <JeffS> I find the 20,000 lotsize pretty workable
[10:30] <JeffS> just sold another half MU at 2%
[10:40] <JeffS> MU tanked but with profits booked I can afford to watch it for a while
[10:44] <JeffS> lots triggered over their 30 minute high
[10:48] <bbcc> did u buy MU at the open?
[10:54] <JeffS> MU was over yesterday's low (or more conservatively - yesterday's close)
[10:55] <JeffS> I'm adjusting all the programs to take the more conservative entry
[10:55] <JeffS> it looks better than the other one based on looking at a lot of charts this weekend
[10:55] <JeffS> I did a bunch of programming
[10:55] <JeffS> dont have anything to show yet but its getting closer
[11:12] <JeffS> be back in a short while
[16:05] <JeffS> results posted
[16:05] <JeffS> hard to pick a loser today
Funny they didn't cite the inventor of the OOPs: it's Larry Williams since there is a post about him above 
.
.[17:10] <JeffS> results posted
[17:20] <JeffS> there are now 615 stocks above 200 smaD 236 below
[17:20] <JeffS> 443 rising 20smaD 475 falling
[17:20] <JeffS> improving conditions for swing trading
[17:21] <JeffS> I've been getting most of my trades from the swing trading long setups
[17:21] <JeffS> and the gap lists
[17:21] <JeffS> oops trading is fading a bit here
[17:22] <JeffS> when you couple an oops setup to a swing setup you get a very good chance at a trade
[17:23] <JeffS> I'm also using the oops short list for gaps up and continuations
[17:24] <JeffS> that is to say - if they gap, riser, and hols their highs in the first 15 minutes or so, they turn into long scalps
[17:29] <JeffS> I will post my watch list a little later
Jeff
[17:20] <JeffS> there are now 615 stocks above 200 smaD 236 below
[17:20] <JeffS> 443 rising 20smaD 475 falling
[17:20] <JeffS> improving conditions for swing trading
[17:21] <JeffS> I've been getting most of my trades from the swing trading long setups
[17:21] <JeffS> and the gap lists
[17:21] <JeffS> oops trading is fading a bit here
[17:22] <JeffS> when you couple an oops setup to a swing setup you get a very good chance at a trade
[17:23] <JeffS> I'm also using the oops short list for gaps up and continuations
[17:24] <JeffS> that is to say - if they gap, riser, and hols their highs in the first 15 minutes or so, they turn into long scalps
[17:29] <JeffS> I will post my watch list a little later
Jeff