Oil is where it is now because......

Quote from ljyoung:

Here's the Senate SC Report on Amaranth. It appears to indicate that SIZE is important. I know it's a bunch of pols but clearly they thought Amaranth's speculative activities jacked up the NG prices. I've split the report into two parts.
June 25, 2007

INVESTIGATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE RELEASES LEVIN-COLEMAN REPORT ON EXCESSIVE SPECULATION IN THE NATURAL GAS MARKET
Finds Hedge Fund Amaranth Distorted Prices Last Summer

WASHINGTON – On Monday, Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), Ranking Minority Member, will hold a hearing and release a 130-page report entitled, Excessive Speculation in the Natural Gas Market, examining how trading by a single hedge fund, Amaranth LLC, led to high prices and extreme price volatility in the U.S. natural gas market in 2006.

“In 2006, excessive speculation by a single large hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, altered natural gas prices, caused wild price swings, and socked consumers with high prices,” said Levin. “It’s one thing when speculators gamble with their own money; it’s another when they turn U.S. energy markets into a lottery where everybody is forced to gamble with them, betting on prices driven by aggressive trading practices. Current commodity laws are riddled with exemptions, exclusions, and limitations that make it virtually impossible for regulators to police U.S. energy markets, particularly the Enron loophole which means regulators can apply excessive speculation limits to regulated markets like NYMEX, but not unregulated markets like ICE.” Levin added, “We need to put the cop back on the beat in all U.S. energy markets with stronger tools to stop price manipulation, excessive speculation, and trading abuses.”

“This Report represents the culmination of the Subcommittee’s extensive bipartisan investigation into the impact of speculative trading on U.S. energy markets,” said Coleman. “We agree on the need to protect the integrity of our markets and I join with Senator Levin in making several bipartisan recommendations to do just that. The ongoing shift of energy trading to unregulated, over-the-counter electronic exchanges undermines the CFTC’s ability to monitor and prevent excessive speculation and price manipulation. Having said that, we must ensure that any proposed cure is not worse than the disease. The implementation of these recommendations must be clearly defined and targeted to preserve the integrity of our energy markets. If we extend CFTC oversight and regulation to electronic, over-the-counter exchanges, we must avoid unintended consequences – namely, we cannot drive traders to the far less transparent and unregulated markets.”

A nine-month bipartisan Subcommittee investigation examined millions of trading records from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to track and analyze natural gas prices during 2006. The Subcommittee report found that, from early 2006 until its September 2006 collapse, Amaranth dominated trading in the U.S. natural gas market, buying thousands of contracts for future delivery of natural gas on a daily basis. At some points in 2006, Amaranth held 100,000 natural gas contracts in a single month, and held 40% or more of the outstanding contracts on NYMEX for 2006.

Amaranth's positions were mostly spreads, not outrights. Natural gas *fell* in price by a huge amount from the levels where Amaranth put on their positions, without any regulatory intervention. Natural gas prices have underperformed crude oil, and are still below their highs. Thus the market with the alleged massive speculation went up less than the market without such a giant position.

Markets without actively traded futures, such as cobalt, cadmiun, and uranium, have shown price gains even bigger than the widely traded futures contracts.

Thus not only is there no evidence whatsoever that having people speculate in futures leads to greater price increases than would occur otherwise, but the more actively speculated markets went up less, and markets without actively traded futures actually soared even higher!

In other words, not only are the pols and ET conspiracy morons wrong, but the facts indicate the *exact opposite* of their conclusions.
 
Miles traveled in the US has flattened out since mid 2005 when oil hit $50 barrel and is actually on the decline. This somewhat eliminates the driving activities of the US consumer as a cause for the incredible surge in oil since last year.

From the Federal Highway Administration, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS

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Quote from Cutten:

Amaranth's positions were mostly spreads, not outrights. "Trading data analyzed by the Subcommittee proves that both exchanges affect energy prices, that prices on one exchange affect prices on the other, and that traders treat NYMEX futures contracts as equivalent to ICE swaps for purposes of risk management and profit-taking."
Natural gas *fell* in price by a huge amount from the levels where Amaranth put on their positions, without any regulatory intervention.No one here has advocated heightened supervision but rather application of a common reporting standard. Natural gas prices have underperformed crude oil, and are still below their highs.That would be because prices "fell" by a huge amount? Thus the market with the alleged massive speculation went up less than the market without such a giant position.So was there massive speculation in NG? At what point in time is your assertion of the price shortfall made? Do you know that there are no massive positions in the ICE swaps market?

Markets without actively traded futures, such as cobalt, cadmiun, and uranium, have shown price gains even bigger than the widely traded futures contracts. And this proves what? Is there only one way to speculate? Like "Since cobalt is not traded on any of the world's metal exchanges, the contract is priced on data published by industry journal Metal Bulletin."http://spilpunt.blogspot.com/2008/01/cobalt-investment-contract-launched-by.html perhaps there might be room for some creative financing with this type of benchmark?

Thus not only is there no evidence whatsoever that having people speculate in futures leads to greater price increases than would occur otherwise, but the more actively speculated markets went up less, and markets without actively traded futures actually soared even higher!You seem to be repeating yourself here, but that's understandable. Boring but understandable.

In other words, not only are the pols and ET conspiracy morons wrong, but the facts indicate the *exact opposite* of their conclusions.As I read this thread so far, it impresses me as still being in a discussion phase with various viewpoints being expressed and with no unanimity of thought having been reached with respect to what is making for such a nasty rise in the price of oil. When Bloomberg makes note of there being the possibility of a speculative bubble that is of some interest. Pols are always suspect and that was mentioned I believe, if not directly then implicitly. As for the ad hominem swill, it is my impression, having been subjected to same many, many times, that individuals who feel compelled to use such a tired, mindless tactic to buttress their argument are either severely lacking in the most rudimentary of social verbal communication skills, by design or circumstance or more frequently, simply ignorant. So yes Virginia there is a market conspiracy and it's called"smart money". Who cares as long as one is aware of the fact that there are individuals who make their money by leading the herd of uninformed traders/investors to various types of bottomless pits and unscalable heights. With awareness there is much less of a conspiratorial taint. I would submit that unbridled speculation is not a good thing but would agree that the markets have ways of dealing with this as in 'pigs get slaughtered'. So please continue with your underwhelming presentation of the "facts" (you know, like Joe Friday talking about the evils of marijuana) and lift all of us morons (conspiratorial or otherwise) out of the pit of despair and ignorance and into the dazzling gleam of your enlightened world.

lj
 
Fear of rising oil prices cause airlines, trucking companies to buy futures contracts to hedge against rising prices.

however, the buying as a result of fear of rising prices adds to the pressure of rising oil prices.

it's all about pyschology of FED pumping up commodity prices with low interest rates.

low interest rates under 4% is gauranteed to cause inflation in hard assets but won't gaurantee economic growth.

result====stagflation




Quote from sttrader:

Speculators knock OPEC off oil-price perch
By F William Engdahl

The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It is controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?

First, the role of the international oil exchanges in London and New York is crucial to the game. Nymex in New York and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures in London today control global benchmark oil prices which in turn set most of the freely traded oil cargo. They do so via oil futures contracts on two
grades of crude oil - West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent.

A third rather new oil exchange, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), trading Dubai crude, is more or less a daughter of Nymex, with Nymex president James Newsome sitting on the board of DME and most key personnel British or American citizens.

Brent is used in spot and long-term contracts to value much of crude oil produced in global oil markets each day. The Brent price is published by a private oil industry publication, Platt's. Major oil producers including Russia and Nigeria use Brent as a benchmark for pricing the crude they produce. Brent is a key crude blend for the European market and, to some extent, for Asia.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has historically been more of a US crude oil basket. Not only is it used as the basis for US-traded oil futures, but it is also a key benchmark for US production.

The tail that wags the dog
All this is well and official. But how today's oil prices are really determined is done by a process so opaque only a handful of major oil trading banks, such as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, have any idea who is buying and who is selling oil futures or derivative contracts that set physical oil prices in this strange new world of "paper oil".

With the development of unregulated international derivatives trading in oil futures over the past decade or more, the way has opened for the present speculative bubble in oil prices.

Since the advent of oil futures trading and the two major London and New York oil futures contracts, control of oil prices has left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and gone to Wall Street. It is a classic case of the "tail that wags the dog".

A June 2006 US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report on "The Role of Market Speculation in rising oil and gas prices" noted, "... there is substantial evidence supporting the conclusion that the large amount of speculation in the current market has significantly increased prices".

What the senate committee staff documented in the report was a gaping loophole in US government regulation of oil derivatives trading so huge a herd of elephants could walk through it. That seems precisely what they have been doing in ramping oil prices through the roof in recent months.
 
I can't believe many of the posters on this thread are really traders.... and certainly not oil traders. Guys, you can bid up the future price all you want - the spot price is set by supply and demand. (by the way, in case you haven't noticed, oil is in backwardation) Are people actually falling for that nonsense about evil speculators being at fault for rising prices? Wake up people - when the Fed debases your currency prices will rise. Speculators are a convenient scapegoat so that no one questions why the hell we allow ourselves to be raped by a central banking system.
 
Quote from lorax2013:

I can't believe many of the posters on this thread are really traders well, they are.... and certainly not oil traders well, as mentioned previously, I'm not . Guys, you to gain a proper perspective on who "you" is, please refer to a COT report and you will find that for most of the people on ET, "you" is the small, pissant speculator, who isn't going to bid anything up can bid up the future price all you want - the spot price is set by supply and demand in an ideal world where everyone told the truth about what they have and what they need - yes. So forfackinget that one. (by the way, in case you haven't noticed, oil is in backwardation it's pretty clear what's causing that - like a S/D thing or a USD thing or something) Are people actually falling for that nonsense about evil what's evil? As mentioned above the thing that is evil is lack of tranparency and not the greedy little twerps who are taking advantage of it and for context, one need also always remember the immortal words of Gordo the Gecko speculators being at fault for rising prices? Wake up lorax123, the Fed has been sticking it to people since 1913 or so - Jekyll Island and all that* people - when the Fed debases your currency prices will rise. Speculators are a convenient scapegoat so like who's doing this scapegoating thing? Sounds like some sort of conspiracy so that no one questions why the hell we allow ourselves to be raped vide supra by a central banking system.

Please understand Mr. Lorax1234 that I am not saying that all of what you said is crap, since it isn't. I am simply saying, that things aren't so simple as S/D and getting reamed by the Fed.

lj

BTW: If you want a little conspiracy stuff check this out. Even if the whole thing is completely fictitious, it makes for a great read.

Excerpt from Eustace Mullin's bannned in Boston book - Secrets of the Federal Reserve - yoiks!:

*Accompanying Senator Aldrich at the Hoboken station were his private secretary, Shelton; A. Piatt Andrew, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and Special Assistant of the National Monetary Commission; Frank Vanderlip, president of the National City Bank of New York, Henry P. Davison, senior partner of J.P. Morgan Company, and generally regarded as Morgan’s personal emissary; and Charles D. Norton, president of the Morgan-dominated First National Bank of New York. Joining the group just before the train left the station were Benjamin Strong, also known as a lieutenant of J.P. Morgan; and Paul Warburg, a recent immigrant from Germany who had joined the banking house of Kuhn, Loeb
__________________________
1 Prof. Nathaniel Wright Stephenson, Paul Warburg’s Memorandum, Nelson Aldrich A Leader in American Politics, Scribners, N.Y. 1930
1
and Company, New York as a partner earning five hundred thousand dollars a year.
Six years later, a financial writer named Bertie Charles Forbes (who later founded the Forbes Magazine; the present editor, Malcom Forbes, is his son), wrote:
"Picture a party of the nation’s greatest bankers stealing out of New York on a private railroad car under cover of darkness, stealthily hieing hundred of miles South, embarking on a mysterious launch, sneaking onto an island deserted by all but a few servants, living there a full week under such rigid secrecy that the names of not one of them was once mentioned lest the servants learn the identity and disclose to the world this strangest, most secret expedition in the history of American finance. I am not romancing; I am giving to the world, for the first time, the real story of how the famous Aldrich currency report, the foundation of our new currency system, was written . . . . The utmost secrecy was enjoined upon all. The public must not glean a hint of what was to be done. Senator Aldrich notified each one to go quietly into a private car of which the railroad had received orders to draw up on an unfrequented platform. Off the party set. New York’s ubiquitous reporters had been foiled . . . Nelson (Aldrich) had confided to Henry, Frank, Paul and Piatt that he was to keep them locked up at Jekyll Island, out of the rest of the world, until they had evolved and compiled a scientific currency system for the United States, the real birth of the present Federal Reserve System, the plan done on Jekyll Island in the conference with Paul, Frank and Henry . . . . Warburg is the link that binds the Aldrich system and the present system together. He more than any one man has made the system possible as a working reality."
 
Did any of you read the first four posts from sstrade? Look, he did'nt write the article, but took the time to post it and make it available to all of you. At least you can take the time and read it before spewing your vitriol.
 
Quote from RhinoGG:

Did any of you read the first four posts from sstrade? Look, he did'nt write the article, but took the time to post it and make it available to all of you. At least you can take the time and read it before spewing your vitriol.

Actually RhinoGG if you look carefully you will see that firstly, I thanked him for posting the article in its entirety and secondly, if you look even more carefully, you will see that that I first posted a link to the article on 5/6/08 in an 'Economics' thread. On 5/7/08 sstrader, having posted in that first 'Economics' thread, reposted that same link in a different 'Economics' thread and then as mentioned above he finally posted the whole article in this particular thread.

As for spewing vitriol, and speaking just for myself, I like to discuss things and to my mind unprovoked ad hominems have no place in a discussion. If you can't make your point without resorting to same, then it's best to keep your ravings to yourself. On the other hand if some poorly spoken lout engages in such activity with me, I will not stand by and take the abuse. I was not under the impression that sstrader had in fact engaged in such activity with me. I never just piss on someone but rather wait until they piss on me and then respond appropriately.

lj
 
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