Quote from ljyoung:
Here's the Senate SC Report on Amaranth. It appears to indicate that SIZE is important. I know it's a bunch of pols but clearly they thought Amaranth's speculative activities jacked up the NG prices. I've split the report into two parts.
June 25, 2007
INVESTIGATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE RELEASES LEVIN-COLEMAN REPORT ON EXCESSIVE SPECULATION IN THE NATURAL GAS MARKET
Finds Hedge Fund Amaranth Distorted Prices Last Summer
WASHINGTON â On Monday, Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, and Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), Ranking Minority Member, will hold a hearing and release a 130-page report entitled, Excessive Speculation in the Natural Gas Market, examining how trading by a single hedge fund, Amaranth LLC, led to high prices and extreme price volatility in the U.S. natural gas market in 2006.
âIn 2006, excessive speculation by a single large hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, altered natural gas prices, caused wild price swings, and socked consumers with high prices,â said Levin. âItâs one thing when speculators gamble with their own money; itâs another when they turn U.S. energy markets into a lottery where everybody is forced to gamble with them, betting on prices driven by aggressive trading practices. Current commodity laws are riddled with exemptions, exclusions, and limitations that make it virtually impossible for regulators to police U.S. energy markets, particularly the Enron loophole which means regulators can apply excessive speculation limits to regulated markets like NYMEX, but not unregulated markets like ICE.â Levin added, âWe need to put the cop back on the beat in all U.S. energy markets with stronger tools to stop price manipulation, excessive speculation, and trading abuses.â
âThis Report represents the culmination of the Subcommitteeâs extensive bipartisan investigation into the impact of speculative trading on U.S. energy markets,â said Coleman. âWe agree on the need to protect the integrity of our markets and I join with Senator Levin in making several bipartisan recommendations to do just that. The ongoing shift of energy trading to unregulated, over-the-counter electronic exchanges undermines the CFTCâs ability to monitor and prevent excessive speculation and price manipulation. Having said that, we must ensure that any proposed cure is not worse than the disease. The implementation of these recommendations must be clearly defined and targeted to preserve the integrity of our energy markets. If we extend CFTC oversight and regulation to electronic, over-the-counter exchanges, we must avoid unintended consequences â namely, we cannot drive traders to the far less transparent and unregulated markets.â
A nine-month bipartisan Subcommittee investigation examined millions of trading records from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to track and analyze natural gas prices during 2006. The Subcommittee report found that, from early 2006 until its September 2006 collapse, Amaranth dominated trading in the U.S. natural gas market, buying thousands of contracts for future delivery of natural gas on a daily basis. At some points in 2006, Amaranth held 100,000 natural gas contracts in a single month, and held 40% or more of the outstanding contracts on NYMEX for 2006.
Amaranth's positions were mostly spreads, not outrights. Natural gas *fell* in price by a huge amount from the levels where Amaranth put on their positions, without any regulatory intervention. Natural gas prices have underperformed crude oil, and are still below their highs. Thus the market with the alleged massive speculation went up less than the market without such a giant position.
Markets without actively traded futures, such as cobalt, cadmiun, and uranium, have shown price gains even bigger than the widely traded futures contracts.
Thus not only is there no evidence whatsoever that having people speculate in futures leads to greater price increases than would occur otherwise, but the more actively speculated markets went up less, and markets without actively traded futures actually soared even higher!
In other words, not only are the pols and ET conspiracy morons wrong, but the facts indicate the *exact opposite* of their conclusions.