Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

plugger wrote

Some good calls lately from the charts. When do you see the seasonal bias changing to negative again on the indices? Thanks.
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The month-of-year bias will remain positive through the end of April. The day-of-month switches to bearish on Friday Dec. 7th. Obviously, the dates are approximate projections based on what has panned out the best over the past. (One would have to wonder, however, if the market hasn't extended itself too quickly into overbought at this moment. But again, play your hunch, lose a bunch).
 
Art's futures biases for Dec 4.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Tuesday, expect an up-move in the currencies, particularly the yen and euro.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Expect upside action in the indexes on Wednesday, particularly the S&P and Nasdaq.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Expect continued upside action in the indexes for Thursday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Monday, expect to see rising prices across the bond complex.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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As is often the case, the CzarCharts are pulling in their horns in the face of uncertainty--re, the impending Fed announcement. For Tuesday, one could take a long flyer in the bond complex, particularly the 5-year notes. Remember, though, that whatever move comes out of the meeting, it's likely to be violent, and possibly short-lived and whipsaw-y.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Wednesday, both the index and bond markets are projected higher by the Czar indicators. While the scenario in total seems unlikely given the tendency of the two to move inversely relative to one another, "intuition" is often no better than "into wishing."
You could also take a short-side flyer in the currencies, particularly the yen.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 13.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Thursday, all major Czar indicators are calling for an up-move across the index complex.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Friday, the Czar indicators are still favorable to the indexes, albeit not as insistently as yesterday. The bond complex is similarly showing a mild up bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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