Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Nov 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The indices continue to have a bullish bias, albeit a slim one going into Wednesday. Probably a better bet would be to short the bond complex, particularly the 5- and 10-year notes.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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A significant snapback rally is overdue. We are just entering the timeframe when the day-of-month indicator switches from bearish to bullish. This tips all three calendar signals into the bull camp. One slight negative signal aside in the either-ors, the CzarCharts are offering a pretty convincing bullish bias for Friday. Treacherous? Certainly, given the volatile environment. Suicidal, given the market's obvious tendencies toward meltdowns? Perhaps that's exactly why the upside might work. If the CzarCharts are right, they could well be so in a huge way. A thin Wednesday market allowed the bears to operate uncontested. There's no reason you can't get a flip side of that in Friday's abbreviated session.
 

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"A thin Wednesday market allowed the bears to operate uncontested. There's no reason you can't get a flip side of that in Friday's abbreviated session"


Wouldn't an even thinner Friday allow the bears an even easier time? Bulls haven't exactly had the upper hand lately, seems like the proverbial towel is being thrown in.
 
bh prop wrote
"A thin Wednesday market allowed the bears to operate uncontested. There's no reason you can't get a flip side of that in Friday's abbreviated session"


Wouldn't an even thinner Friday allow the bears an even easier time? Bulls haven't exactly had the upper hand lately, seems like the proverbial towel is being thrown in.
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certainly your scenario is a possiblity. in fact, maybe the most likely thing to expect is that in this thin market during a time frame of significant one-way moves, one side or the other will have their way in dramatic fashion. my bias would be to the upside though because
a. it repesents the most unexpected direction and it's the market's job to scold and punish for maximum effect
b. the market has been clearly oversold and most important of all
c. that's what the czarcharts are saying.
(i'm just such a stickler for historically demonstratable indicators!)
 
Art's futures biases for Nov 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Expect continued rallying in the indices, but don't be surprised if the ascent is a jagged up and back affair. Friday's upside explosion might have been exaggerated due to the thinness of the market.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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A thin-volume-holiday stock market melt is followed by an even thinner upside explosion. Yet another melt follows on a proper full-trading day with commensurate increased volume. Is this the true direction? Not according to the CzarCharts. They're insisting we're going to see yet another flip-flop on Tuesday--this time to the upside. Stay tuned.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Wednesday, the CzarCharts are again calling for an up-move, albeit not exactly insistently. Still, note the uncontested cup bottoms in both the S&P and Russell. Perhaps Wednesday will be the first two-day continuation we've seen in a while.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 29.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Both major signal classes are calling for a Thursday rally in the bond complex. Note the unusual number of buy flashes among the less-frequent indicators.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Expect continued up action in the bond complex for Friday.
 

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Hi Art:

Some good calls lately from the charts. When do you see the seasonal bias changing to negative again on the indices? Thanks.
 
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