Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Oct 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Despite yet another impressive, if somewhat irksome late-rally, I have to challenge the bulls again on Wednesday. The CzarCharts continue to insist on a down move across all major signal categories. The bulls can be daunting, but I don't believe their bags of tricks can be infinite.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Aside from the fact that the CzarCharts remain solidly in favor of shorting the indices on Friday, something else has caught my interest. For three days in a row, the markets have opened in what would prove to be the top half of the daily range. Their subsequent journeys to the lows have been far greater distances than to the highs. sounds like significant down day setups. But no--they closed near the top of the range on all three. The rallies were always late and, if you've short like me, very vexing.
I think those downside "tails" will continue to be tested until exhausted longs finally give up. When the three day low is taken out, (1495.25 in the S&P), I'd have to think we'd then be in "look out below" mode.
As I've often admitted, my opinions don't mean much. But then again, I have the backing of the Czar indicators.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct 29.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Wednesday has the same Czar setup as Tuesday, namely, there are no clear undisputed signals in any of the complexes. Let's live to fight another day--post Fed announcement.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The fundamental indecisiveness is now behind us and accordingly, the CzarCharts are getting opinionated again. For Thursday, they are urging sells in the indices and continental currencies and buys in the bond complex.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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We have now entered the six month calendar time frame that tends to be most bullish for the stock market. Obviously, that doesn't mean that other signals aren't going to overrule that rating from now through May, nor does it mean that the tide is going to turn exactly on schedule. Because of the flip-around though, the calendar and other signals are clashing for Friday, which is just as well following a huge move like Thursday's. Day-after-debacles tend to be poor trading environments.
You could, however, buy the bond complex (particularly the 30-year) and sell the currencies off the Czar readings.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Once again, a huge down-thrust in the market is immediately followed with an upwardly-sloping chop-session. One lone contrary signal notwithstanding, expect upside follow-through in the indexes on Monday. There is also unanimous argument for the downside of the bond complex.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Tuesday, the bonds should continue to sell off. Also, although it may not seem like it, the indices did rally off their opening prices on Monday in line with what the CzarCharts projected. This is a volatile market and consequently, you would have had to endure considerable heat to stay with the trade. Still, the bias hasn't changed going into tomorrow and we should see continued strength.
 

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