Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The less-frequent-signal box is generating double sell signals across the bond complex. All three markets have formed cap tops. All three also have had back-to-back higher open-to-closes, a fade signal that also argues for the short side. The either-ors, meanwhile, are neutral and therefore non-contradictory.

 

[syswizard]

At least the calendar bias is working in the "correct" direction for that overbot Nasdaq. I think the 2000 level is a reasonable downside target for now.
Today's end-of-day action in NQ could be analogous to the Titanic first hitting that iceberg.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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One could argue that the majority of the index signals are urging buys. I can't yet be comfortable with that side of the market however. Probably the truest signals of late are the calendar based signals, and they're in solid sell mode. This may be quibbling as the day-of-month indicator will switch from short to slong for Tuesday's trade. Still, the market has be overbought and due for a correction. It may only be a brief one, but I'm anticipating that it won't be shallow.
The only uncontested signal for Monday is to again look for downside activity across the bond complex.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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One could argue that the majority of the index signals are urging buys. I can't yet be comfortable with that side of the market however. Probably the truest signals of late are the calendar based signals, and they're in solid sell mode. This may be quibbling as the day-of-month indicator will switch from short to slong for Tuesday's trade. Still, the market has be overbought and due for a correction. It may only be a brief one, but I'm anticipating that it won't be shallow.
The only uncontested signal for Monday is to again look for downside activity across the bond complex.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The day-of-month indicator has flipped from short to long. That in turn has caused calendar indicators to become net bullish, dissenting S&P vote aside. Virtually all other major signal boxes are also flashing buys. Expect up action on Tuesday.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Mechanical system traders all maintain that the signal in front of you is all that's relevant. In other words, I will attempt to buy the index markets on Wednesday in accordance with near-unanimous bullish signals. The fact that I got spanked attempting to do the same thing on Tuesday has no relevance.
An alternate play would be to buy the contentinental currencies.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Thursday, expect an up-move in the indexes, particularly the Russell. Also look for bullish action in the currencies.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Jul 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There's no disgrace in sitting out a market that's gone wild. For the cowboy-traders among you, however, the signals are solidly long for Friday's index trade. Conversely, the bond complex is urging across-the-board sells.

 

[syswizard]

A the current rate of descent, the Russell 2000 is targeting for ZERO by year-end.
Do they sell puts with a zero strike ?

 

[ETUserisme]

The bad news, deficits, dysfunctional executive/congress, over-stretched military, sub-prime woes etc etc were all known for weeks, except for the Pakistani cruise missile test. What do you think triggered this cascade? Why now? Anyone?
Regards,

ETUser.