Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

syswizard wrote
A the current rate of descent, the Russell 2000 is targeting for ZERO by year-end.
Do they sell puts with a zero strike ?
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always darkest just before the dawn....(and even just before a big dead cat bounce)
 
Art's futures biases for Jul 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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I'm changing my tune since responding to systrader one post back. i see a bad moon rising. You'll note that there is not much unanimity anywhere in the CzarCharts. I have to say that at this time, most of my personal trading in the stock indexes has been sidelined by volatility filters. (Admittedly, I first had to lose a considerable amount of money). Personal reflection based on a small number of trials may not mean much, but for whatever it's worth, I see the market action at the end of the week as being very reminiscent of the pre-Black Monday period in 1987. Either side of the trading card is going to be horrendously risky, but I would definitely stay off the blue (buy) side until at least Tuesday. It would probably be most prudent to take an index hiatus, at least until the S&P daily ranges get back under 20 again.
 

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Art's futures biases for Jul 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Art's futures biases for Aug 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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I'm still sticking to my Bad Moon rising prediction overall--but the Czar readings for Wednesday suggest an upside bounce in the indexes. Clearly there is a titanic war going on between the bulls and bears at the moment. Be careful. (But stay tuned).
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 3.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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My biggest recommendation would be to side-step Friday completely given the wide volatility swings and lack of definitive CzarChart direction. If neutrality were not an option, though, I'd note that two out of three of the major signal categories in the indexes are bearish. One might follow that pathway, particularly if the opening is sharply higher off the 7:30 reports.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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A week ago Friday, we had a severe down close that occurred late in the day, just like the sendoff into our current weekend. In both cases, the melt occurred on the tail end of week-long volatile swings.
If the pattern continues to be a repeat through Monday, we'll see a higher open followed by substantial up action into the close. I tend to believe in the law of asymmetry, however. Whenever you have something tracking really close, too many people notice it for the pattern to culminate in the same outcome. Therefore, I'm expecting sharply lower index prices by the 8:30 regular session opening followed by a day long harrowing melt. (Note that this is in line with the CzarChart projections).
Figure on extreme turbulence. As with any volatile time, this one is not for the inexperienced or faint of heart.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Those bulls ARE a stubborn bunch, aren't they?
The day of month indicator has flipped from buy to sell making the calendar biases unanimously bearish. This joins the solid negative indicators in the either-or box and the neutral-to-bearish ones among the less-frequent indicators.
A system player's job is to act on the signal immediately in front of him (or her) regardless of preceding events. I know I said this before--like 286 Dow points lower--but Tuesday could be presenting a significant selling opportunity. Also consistent with what I've been saying for days now--be extremely careful. Sitting out completely is never a disgrace.
Alternate Czar recommendation--sell the bond complex, particularly the 30-year.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Wednesday, the indexes continue to flash sell signals, particularly the Nasdaq which is at it's maximum bear level in both the either-ors (-6) and the calendar biases (-3). The bond and currency complexes are both in uncontested buy mode, particularly the 30-year bonds and euro.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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