Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
himself wrote
Art,
In relation to the bonds, if you have a signal do you enter at the opening, i.e., at 8:20 AM Eastern TIme, even if there is a report coming out at 8:30 AM?
Thank you.
Himself,
Painful as it is, the reports never impact my decisions. Sometimes that has resulted in a pleasant unexpected windfall and sometimes it has caused bigger than usual losses (and psychic pain). i trade pretty much exclusively indexes these days, and i'll hold overnight positions there through the numbers or anything I'd enter on the same day prior to the numbers. when i did did trade bonds regularly, same story. maybe there is a way to build an awareness of impending probable anomalous volatility (via reports) into a trading system, but I haven't found it yet. I just focus on the entire universe of trades and try not to sweat the individual ones in progress
Art,
In relation to the bonds, if you have a signal do you enter at the opening, i.e., at 8:20 AM Eastern TIme, even if there is a report coming out at 8:30 AM?
Thank you.
Himself,
Painful as it is, the reports never impact my decisions. Sometimes that has resulted in a pleasant unexpected windfall and sometimes it has caused bigger than usual losses (and psychic pain). i trade pretty much exclusively indexes these days, and i'll hold overnight positions there through the numbers or anything I'd enter on the same day prior to the numbers. when i did did trade bonds regularly, same story. maybe there is a way to build an awareness of impending probable anomalous volatility (via reports) into a trading system, but I haven't found it yet. I just focus on the entire universe of trades and try not to sweat the individual ones in progress
Art's futures biases for Jul 10.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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Cap bottoms have formed across the bond complex. This adds to unanimous buy flashes in the either-or signals. In short, expect continued strength across that sector on Tuesday
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
Cap bottoms have formed across the bond complex. This adds to unanimous buy flashes in the either-or signals. In short, expect continued strength across that sector on Tuesday
Art: Any thoughts on Beans?
They can cause gas
Pa(b)st Prime wrote
Art
Any thoughts on beans?
just one--one of only two i discuss in my last book. a play that has great historic results is to sell november beans on the open of july 2d. that would have been at 894--a bit lower than where we are now. 80 cent profit target (814) or $1.00 loss ($9.94). 1965-2005 results--24 wins, 16 losses--$791.88 average trade. $31,675 total.
Obviously, wide stop--long term play. not for the squeamish.
Art
Any thoughts on beans?
just one--one of only two i discuss in my last book. a play that has great historic results is to sell november beans on the open of july 2d. that would have been at 894--a bit lower than where we are now. 80 cent profit target (814) or $1.00 loss ($9.94). 1965-2005 results--24 wins, 16 losses--$791.88 average trade. $31,675 total.
Obviously, wide stop--long term play. not for the squeamish.
Art's futures biases for Jul 11.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
According to the CzarCharts, the two day up-move in the bonds should reverse on Wednesday. Similarly, the currencies are flashing bear signals, particularly the yen and euro.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
According to the CzarCharts, the two day up-move in the bonds should reverse on Wednesday. Similarly, the currencies are flashing bear signals, particularly the yen and euro.
Art's futures biases for Jul 12.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
Art's futures biases for Jul 13.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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Whenever we have an explosive stock market day like Thursday complete with CNBC popping champagne corks, I can't help but ask myself whether it's getting overdone. Perhaps it's the contrarian in me. At any rate, two out of the major three signal categories are urging sells, including unanimous calendar bear flashes. One dissenting vote aside in the either-or Russell box, we may have a good shorting argument for Friday, particularly in the Nasdaq.
A Friday the 13th surprise, anyone?
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
Whenever we have an explosive stock market day like Thursday complete with CNBC popping champagne corks, I can't help but ask myself whether it's getting overdone. Perhaps it's the contrarian in me. At any rate, two out of the major three signal categories are urging sells, including unanimous calendar bear flashes. One dissenting vote aside in the either-or Russell box, we may have a good shorting argument for Friday, particularly in the Nasdaq.
A Friday the 13th surprise, anyone?
I'm with you Art. I thought the reasons given for the pop were fragile when compared with the fundamental imbalances. But a pop is just another shorting opportunity and I've found that things always seem to eventually go down quicker than go up.