Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
Art's futures biases for Jul 16.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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All complexes have net signals in one direction or other. Granted, nothing jumps out too much. Probably the best play is to be long the currencies. The 30- year bonds and 5-year notes also present uncontested buys. I'm still expecting a stock reaction shortly, and Monday is still presenting net bear flashes. I'll probably wait until "Turnaround Tuesday" before heavily committing, however.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
All complexes have net signals in one direction or other. Granted, nothing jumps out too much. Probably the best play is to be long the currencies. The 30- year bonds and 5-year notes also present uncontested buys. I'm still expecting a stock reaction shortly, and Monday is still presenting net bear flashes. I'll probably wait until "Turnaround Tuesday" before heavily committing, however.
OEX next Friday Sys. Do you think it's being run up so the elephants can unload and get back in at lower prices? As they say, dance with elephants and you're liable to get your toes crushed, unless you're nimble.
Art's futures biases for Jul 16.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
I'm warming to the short side across the index board. The one dissenting vote--a buy signal in the Russell either-or box--is especially bearish in the less-frequent category box. Note the cap top and three day resistance signal. In short, all three markets present a roughly equal argument for the down-side on Tuesday.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
I'm warming to the short side across the index board. The one dissenting vote--a buy signal in the Russell either-or box--is especially bearish in the less-frequent category box. Note the cap top and three day resistance signal. In short, all three markets present a roughly equal argument for the down-side on Tuesday.
Art's futures biases for Jul 18.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
For Wednesday, expect a down move across the bond complex.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________
For Wednesday, expect a down move across the bond complex.
syswizard wrote
PLUS SIX on the Russell 2000 which has been weak lately ?
Wow, this will be interesting !!
yeah, but the calendar box is negative as are the majority of the readings through the complex. we seem to be in mishmosh land in the indexes for the moment
PLUS SIX on the Russell 2000 which has been weak lately ?
Wow, this will be interesting !!
yeah, but the calendar box is negative as are the majority of the readings through the complex. we seem to be in mishmosh land in the indexes for the moment
Art's futures biases for Jul 18.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________________
There's a whole lot of everything and nothing going on. You could argue both sides of the index coin. The three major index signal boxes net out to the bear side. On the other hand, you've had a +6 in the russell two days in a row. The downside was the direction to play for most of Wednesday--and yet the market closed higher. The biggest single leg was to the upside.
If you have access to daily bar charts, look at the last three days of the Nasdaq. Technically, you have a cap top as I define it, but look at how today's action qualifies it. Wednesday's high and close are both lower than Tuesday's which fits the cap definition and yet the close is above the open and just off the high of the day. That certainly isn't a leg that suggests a down move. Granted I don't have caps broken down accordingly in studies--you'd have too few days looking like today to have any statistical significance. But the long and short of it is, the Czar readings are just about as mish-moshy chaotic as the markets themselves. For Thursday, I'm seriously thinking about not putting any day positions on.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
________________________________________________
There's a whole lot of everything and nothing going on. You could argue both sides of the index coin. The three major index signal boxes net out to the bear side. On the other hand, you've had a +6 in the russell two days in a row. The downside was the direction to play for most of Wednesday--and yet the market closed higher. The biggest single leg was to the upside.
If you have access to daily bar charts, look at the last three days of the Nasdaq. Technically, you have a cap top as I define it, but look at how today's action qualifies it. Wednesday's high and close are both lower than Tuesday's which fits the cap definition and yet the close is above the open and just off the high of the day. That certainly isn't a leg that suggests a down move. Granted I don't have caps broken down accordingly in studies--you'd have too few days looking like today to have any statistical significance. But the long and short of it is, the Czar readings are just about as mish-moshy chaotic as the markets themselves. For Thursday, I'm seriously thinking about not putting any day positions on.