Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

[Art Collins]

i made a mistake in the commentary of the posting for mar 2. currency bias is up, not down. czarcharts were correct.
i do take this very seriously, and apologise profusely for the brainfart. thanks to bob birnbach for alerting me.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Mar 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Monday, we should see continued strength in the bond complex. The 30-year looks like the best bet.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Mar 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Anyone with crash-mode experience would probably agree that from here, the next significant stock market move is more likely to be up than down. For the stout-hearted among us, Tuesday presents an intriguing timing window.

Monday figured to be a continuation of Friday’s down-move, which is what we saw. The fact that there was so much stock dumping late in the day implies capitulation for (perhaps the last of) the weak-handed longs. “Turnaround Tuesday” does have statistical validity as I’ve demonstrated in previous postings. Combine that with the bullish month of year timeframe, and add that to the fact that the other CzarChart signals are agreeing with the scenario, and you have a potential launch pad. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that when the turnaround happens off such depressed levels, it’s going to rival the last few down days in terms of intensity. Two-hundred point Dow gains can be routinely found in timeframes resembling the current one.

Again though, utmost caution is urged. This is not an environment to fool around in if you don’t have significant funds, discipline, and a plan that goes beyond the mere reading of daily biases.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Mar 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The majority of the CzarCharts are still flashing buy signals, but there are now dissenters in the calendar box. It’s probably a good idea to sidestep that complex for Wednesday. It’s rare recently that a solid trend day is not followed by aggravating choppiness and a relatively small range.

A better bet would be to follow the sell signals in the bond complex.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Mar 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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We are now in the bearish mid-monthly timeframe in the indexes. The day-of-week signals are also flashing sell signals, which makes the majority of the calendar indicators negative. When you add that to the unanimously negative either-or composites, plus a couple of bearish less-frequent flashes, you’ve got a strong case for a weak index complex on Thursday.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Mar 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

 

[syswizard]

March 2007 edition of SFO magazine had some interesting articles...one was election year and pre-election tendencies. Fascinating. See http://www.electionomics.com for more info. Bottomline conclusion: pre-election long positions are winners...with one major exception: the great depression. Thus, the high percentage tendency from here barring a crash, is up.

 

[Art Collins]

Syswizard wrote

March 2007 edition of SFO magazine had some interesting articles...one was election year and pre-election tendencies. Fascinating. See http://www.electionomics.com for more info. Bottomline conclusion: pre-election long positions are winners...with one major exception: the great depression. Thus, the high percentage tendency from here barring a crash, is up.
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I don't disagree. You're talking longer term, a horizon I don't trade, but I'm starting to notice rampant bearishness in chatrooms, phone calls etc. Don't be too surprised if another major shoe does not drop, or even, for that matter, if the mini-crash lows are not re-tested for awhile.
On the other hand, I do continue to monitor and trade the day-by day signals as they play out. The sharply higher indexes as of 8:00 could...possibly..present a nice selling opportunity.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from Art Collins:

On the other hand, I do continue to monitor and trade the day-by day signals as they play out. The sharply higher indexes as of 8:00 could...possibly..present a nice selling opportunity. [/B]

And they did....nice call Art !

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Mar 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Expect upside action in the currencies on Monday. The Euro appears to be the best bet.