Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Feb 16.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts are still suggesting down moves in the indexes, albeit not quite as insistently. Perhaps yesterday’s unanimously negative readings were just a day premature. It’s also possible we’ll get an attractive setup via the release of government reports at 7:30 CDT. As always, I’d be especially interested to see the markets respond with a strong up-reaction that begins to falter shortly after the regular session opening.
 

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OX day tomorrow - we always seem to get some interesting action on such days. Maybe because so many people stay out of the markets on such days that large orders have an effect that they wouldn't have normal days?
 
Art's futures biases for Feb 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Disregard the day-of-the week indicator in the indexes. It is being skewed by the fact that the shortened week is not starting on Monday. (Jeez, you think we have enough holidays in this country?)

That aside, we’re still getting very insistent sell signals for Tuesday. It’s pretty rare that you see so many of the less-frequent box 2 signals lining up so bearishly, and the either-or indicators are agreeing. The S&Ps appear to be the best shorting candidate.
 

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Art - nice article in the Feb 2007 issue of Futures Magazine !!
Anyway, perhaps you need to add a few more "soft" indicators :
1) goldilocks economy effect (+3=rampant belief nothing can sink the economy, -3=we're going into a depression)
2) permabear disgust quotient
-3=bears in total disgust,getting hammered (time to sell)
+3=bears jubilant (time to buy)
 
Art's futures biases for Feb 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Hi Art,

Just want to thank you for the great presentation today. Definitely one of the best for this year’s Expo. And well worth to force myself get up early (had only 4 hours sleep last night) :)

And thank you for sharing your market expertise here. I can understand your Biases data much better now… I think :)

Best fortune and prosperity for the year of Golden Pig! :cool:
 
sorry I missed saying " hello " ART

at the expo ... I would have liked to thank you for the
time you spend here on ET ... even if your "signals"

are not for the markets I trade

:)
 
Quote from SethArb:

... I would have liked to thank you for the
time you spend here on ET ... even if your "signals"

are not for the markets I trade

:)
More...

Are you the guy who trades only Bond and thinks everyone should trade it too? :p
 
Art,

Nice thread. I just happened across it. I am a somewhat discretionary trader of 18 months in the eminis, but I am interested in your mechanical methods. I look forward to following along. Thanks again for the contribution to ET. Good trading to all of us.

Dan
 
Art's futures biases for Feb 22.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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