Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Feb 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

________________________________

The bond complex urges longs in both major signal groups across all three markets. The best bet for Friday is the 30-year. Note the unanimous +6 buy reading in either-or category.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Feb 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

______________________________

The bond complex continues to indicate longs across both signal groups in all three markets. Expect further upside action on Monday.
 

Attachments

Quote from Art Collins:

The bond complex urges longs in both major signal groups across all three markets. The best bet for Friday is the 30-year. Note the unanimous +6 buy reading in either-or category.
More...

and

Quote from Art Collins:


The bond complex continues to indicate longs across both signal groups in all three markets. Expect further upside action on Monday.
More...

good call X2. You have my attention. Many were negative after Thursday's down day.
 
Art's futures biases for Feb 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------

You can’t keep the good of U.S. of A. stock market down for long, and by George, the CzarCharts are now affirming that our two or three day market "break" is likely over. The Russell presents Tuesday’s probable best buying opportunity.
 

Attachments

I want to thank everyone that provided kind feedback following my New York seminars. I'm just getting stuff in order now, so hopefully I'll be again replying to emails and thread rejoinders in timely fashion.

Jaxon wrote
"The bond complex continues to indicate longs across both signal groups in all three markets. Expect further upside action on Monday. "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


good call X2. You have my attention. Many were negative after Thursday's down day.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you Jax. I have to in good conscience remind everyone that I'm also wrong two or more days in a row, although I continue to maintain faith in the overall outcomes of the CzarChats.
But thanks for your interest Jaxon, and again, ditto to everyone else who has responded lately.
 
Art's futures biases for Feb 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

___________________________________________

The CzarChart readings were spectacularly wrong for Tuesday’s crash, but I won’t get overly-dramatic with my mea culpas. I have to assume that whoever is using these readings, or any other for that matter, have got prudent money-management methodologies in place. In other words, Tuesday was merely one for the L column for all practical purposes.

Obviously, we are suddenly in the kind of hyper-environment we haven’t seen for years, so you’re forgiven if you decide not to risk such volatility on Wednesday. If you’re hard-core though, the CzarCharts are still insisting on an up-move. It would have its greatest chance of success coming off sharply lower openings, which we may well see considering the possibility of further Asian overnight carnage.

Just remember that wherever you are in the trading day, conditions can change quickly and dramatically. Don’t trade unless you have some solid plan in place other than the mere CzarChart readings.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Mar 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

_____________________________________________

The best play for Thursday is the short side of the bond complex. Aside from the CzarChart readings, the complex is overdue for a correction.

Tuesday’s mini stock crash can be viewed according to one of two different historic scenarios. Scenario One is that it fits that of “meaningful” corrections such as Black Monday and 9-11. The days immediately following both were volatile with ferocious moves and counter-moves pressuring both sides of the trading card.

The other model is that of the isolated day followed by little more than business-as-usual. There are too many examples of these to even remember. The UAL debacle of 1989. The Russian coup attempt of 1990. Some weirdo left field day in March of, I believe, 2000 when the market dropped over 600 points intra-day and then recovered significantly by the close.

Fear was rampant in the Scenario One aftermaths. In the second scenario, it was all but forgotten by the next day. I’m anything but a perma-bull. (Anyone in the Trader Insight war room knows my cynicism). I don’t believe a market can continue on its merry way month after month without corrections. I just don’t regard the fundamentals behind this particular drop as particularly significant and the Day After reaction was not typical of a freaked-out environment.

Besides, the CzarCharts continue to be overall bullish. (Ahh, the real crux of my feelings!) It would not be unreasonable to follow the majority-upward bias on Thursday.
 

Attachments

Interesting crash observations Art...thanks for those.
I see that our friend the Russell 2000 is not showing great bias for tomorrow.....today's action was somewhat choppy, and totally back-and-forth, but net-net, it was weak as heck.
 
7:45 update.

sheesh....!

i guess on the other hand, i could be dead wrong about the "no continued tremor" comment.

the probable sharply lower opens increase the chances that there will be upward open-to-close action. unfortunately, sharply lower opens also raise the possiblity that something is wrong out there and that if the projections do fail, they may well do so in spectacular fashion.

strap on your seat belts and observe extreme caution.
 
Art's futures biases for Mar 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

__________________________________________

Ok, so I’m obviously wrong about the significance of Tuesday’s melt. Apparently it’s a closer match to a 9-11 or Black Monday category than the one-day only declines I mentioned yesterday.
Look at it this way—the CzarCharts aren’t really urging much. I’ve noticed other volatile times sending the signals into similar hibernation mode, but admittedly, that might be merely anecdotal.
Only the continental currencies are showing any bias for Friday, and that's to the downside. Remember though, it's never a disgrace to stand aside.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top